000 AXPZ20 KNHC 111526 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC MON JUL 11 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1500 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... MONSOON TROUGH AXIS FROM 11N86W TO 10N100W THEN RESUMES FROM 12N120W TO 07N130W THEN ITCZ TO BEYOND 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 04N TO 08N E OF 80W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS ALSO NOTED WITHIN 200 NM S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS E OF 90W TO THE COAST OF COSTA RICA...AND FROM 10N TO 15N BETWEEN 95W AND 101W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 06N TO 08N BETWEEN 92W AND 96W. ...DISCUSSION... THE REMNANT LOW OF CALVIN IS LOCATED W OF ISLA CLARION NEAR 19N116W WITH WINDS ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KT WITHIN 90 NM OF THE CENTER...AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS VERIFIED 20 KT WINDS TO SE OF CENTER. DEEP CONVECTION NO LONGER IS PRESENT NEAR THE CIRCULATION CENTER...AND THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE WITHIN THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS AS IT MOVES WNW OVER COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. N SWELL GENERATED BY FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF CENTRAL CALIFORNIA...AS DEPICTED BY SCATTEROMETER DATA...HAVE MOVED INTO NE PORTION OF DISCUSSION AREA N OF 27N BETWEEN 118W AND 130W. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED NEXT 24 HOURS. BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...EXPECT 20 KT WINDS AND SEAS 6-8 FT AS PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES OFF WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAINLY N OF 27N IN ASSOCIATION WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED NW OF AREA. CROSS-EQUATORIAL SW SWELLS CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA E OF 130W WITH 17-18 SEC LONG PERIOD SWELLS REACHING FROM PANAMA TO BAJA CALIFORNIA. COMBINED SEAS OF 8 TO 11 FT WILL PREVAIL OVER MUCH OF THE DEEP TROPICS E OF 130W THROUGH WED. A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN ALONG 81W WILL CROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TUE AND THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT NORTHWARD IN RESPONSE TO THE TROPICAL WAVE AND EXTEND FROM SOUTHERN MEXICO ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA BY MID-WEEK...WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH BECOMING UNUSUALLY STRONG. STRONG W-SW WINDS ARE EXPECTED N OF 05N E OF 94W WITH WINDS TO 30 KT LIKELY S OF BOTH GUATEMALA AND COSTA RICA. PERSISTENT FRESH TO STRONG SW MONSOONAL FLOW WILL ALLOW SEAS TO BUILD TO 10-12 FT MON NIGHT AND TO 13 FT TUE NIGHT S OF CENTRAL AMERICA. ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE SURGING INTO CENTRAL AMERICA AND SOUTHERN MEXICO HAS THE POTENTIAL TO GENERATE HEAVY RAINFALL AND POSSIBLE MUDSLIDES OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND SOUTHERN MEXICO...ESPECIALLY TUE NIGHT THROUGH FRI. $$ GR/DG 000 AXPZ20 KNHC 111526 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC MON JUL 11 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1500 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... MONSOON TROUGH AXIS FROM 11N86W TO 10N100W THEN RESUMES FROM 12N120W TO 07N130W THEN ITCZ TO BEYOND 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 04N TO 08N E OF 80W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS ALSO NOTED WITHIN 200 NM S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS E OF 90W TO THE COAST OF COSTA RICA...AND FROM 10N TO 15N BETWEEN 95W AND 101W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 06N TO 08N BETWEEN 92W AND 96W. ...DISCUSSION... THE REMNANT LOW OF CALVIN IS LOCATED W OF ISLA CLARION NEAR 19N116W WITH WINDS ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KT WITHIN 90 NM OF THE CENTER...AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS VERIFIED 20 KT WINDS TO SE OF CENTER. DEEP CONVECTION NO LONGER IS PRESENT NEAR THE CIRCULATION CENTER...AND THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE WITHIN THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS AS IT MOVES WNW OVER COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. N SWELL GENERATED BY FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF CENTRAL CALIFORNIA...AS DEPICTED BY SCATTEROMETER DATA...HAVE MOVED INTO NE PORTION OF DISCUSSION AREA N OF 27N BETWEEN 118W AND 130W. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED NEXT 24 HOURS. BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...EXPECT 20 KT WINDS AND SEAS 6-8 FT AS PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES OFF WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAINLY N OF 27N IN ASSOCIATION WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED NW OF AREA. CROSS-EQUATORIAL SW SWELLS CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA E OF 130W WITH 17-18 SEC LONG PERIOD SWELLS REACHING FROM PANAMA TO BAJA CALIFORNIA. COMBINED SEAS OF 8 TO 11 FT WILL PREVAIL OVER MUCH OF THE DEEP TROPICS E OF 130W THROUGH WED. A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN ALONG 81W WILL CROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TUE AND THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT NORTHWARD IN RESPONSE TO THE TROPICAL WAVE AND EXTEND FROM SOUTHERN MEXICO ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA BY MID-WEEK...WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH BECOMING UNUSUALLY STRONG. STRONG W-SW WINDS ARE EXPECTED N OF 05N E OF 94W WITH WINDS TO 30 KT LIKELY S OF BOTH GUATEMALA AND COSTA RICA. PERSISTENT FRESH TO STRONG SW MONSOONAL FLOW WILL ALLOW SEAS TO BUILD TO 10-12 FT MON NIGHT AND TO 13 FT TUE NIGHT S OF CENTRAL AMERICA. ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE SURGING INTO CENTRAL AMERICA AND SOUTHERN MEXICO HAS THE POTENTIAL TO GENERATE HEAVY RAINFALL AND POSSIBLE MUDSLIDES OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND SOUTHERN MEXICO...ESPECIALLY TUE NIGHT THROUGH FRI. $$ GR/DG