000 AXPZ20 KNHC 111010 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC MON JUL 11 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0900 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... DISCONTINUOUS MONSOON TROUGH AXIS FROM 11N86W TO 12N92W TO 10N100W...RESUMES FROM 18N116W TO 08N129W...THEN CONTINUES AS ITCZ TO BEYOND 06N140W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION N OF 05N E OF 100W. ...DISCUSSION... THE REMNANT LOW OF CALVIN IS LOCATED W OF ISLA CLARION NEAR 19N116W WITH WINDS ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KT WITHIN 90 NM OF THE CENTER. DEEP CONVECTION NO LONGER IS PRESENT NEAR THE CIRCULATION CENTER...AND THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE WITHIN THE NEXT 24- 36 HOURS AS IT MOVES WNW OVER COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. N SWELL GENERATED BY FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF CENTRAL CALIFORNIA...AS DEPICTED BY SCATTEROMETER DATA...HAVE MOVED INTO NE PORTION OF DISCUSSION AREA N OF 28N BETWEEN 118W AND 125W. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED NEXT 24 HOURS...AND SEAS SHOULD AGAIN BE BELOW 8 FT W OF BAJA CALIFORNIA BY TUE EVENING. CROSS-EQUATORIAL SW SWELLS CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA E OF 130W WITH 17-18 SEC LONG PERIOD SWELLS REACHING FROM PANAMA TO BAJA CALIFORNIA. COMBINED SEAS OF 8 TO 11 FT WILL PREVAIL OVER MUCH OF THE DEEP TROPICS E OF 130W THROUGH WED. A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN ALONG 80W WILL CROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TUE AND THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WED AND THU. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT NORTHWARD IN RESPONSE TO THE TROPICAL WAVE AND EXTEND FROM SOUTHERN MEXICO ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA BY MID-WEEK...WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH BECOMING UNUSUALLY STRONG. STRONG W-SW WINDS ARE EXPECTED N OF 05N E OF 94W WITH WINDS TO 30 KT LIKELY S OF GUATEMALA AND COSTA RICA. PERSISTENT FRESH TO STRONG SW MONSOONAL FLOW WILL ALLOW SEAS TO BUILD TO 10-12 FT MON NIGHT AND TO 14 FT TUE NIGHT S OF CENTRAL AMERICA. ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE SURGING INTO CENTRAL AMERICA AND SOUTHERN MEXICO HAS THE POTENTIAL TO GENERATE HEAVY RAINFALL AND POSSIBLE MUDSLIDES OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND SOUTHERN MEXICO...ESPECIALLY TUE NIGHT THROUGH FRI. $$ MUNDELL 000 AXPZ20 KNHC 111010 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC MON JUL 11 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0900 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... DISCONTINUOUS MONSOON TROUGH AXIS FROM 11N86W TO 12N92W TO 10N100W...RESUMES FROM 18N116W TO 08N129W...THEN CONTINUES AS ITCZ TO BEYOND 06N140W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION N OF 05N E OF 100W. ...DISCUSSION... THE REMNANT LOW OF CALVIN IS LOCATED W OF ISLA CLARION NEAR 19N116W WITH WINDS ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KT WITHIN 90 NM OF THE CENTER. DEEP CONVECTION NO LONGER IS PRESENT NEAR THE CIRCULATION CENTER...AND THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE WITHIN THE NEXT 24- 36 HOURS AS IT MOVES WNW OVER COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. N SWELL GENERATED BY FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF CENTRAL CALIFORNIA...AS DEPICTED BY SCATTEROMETER DATA...HAVE MOVED INTO NE PORTION OF DISCUSSION AREA N OF 28N BETWEEN 118W AND 125W. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED NEXT 24 HOURS...AND SEAS SHOULD AGAIN BE BELOW 8 FT W OF BAJA CALIFORNIA BY TUE EVENING. CROSS-EQUATORIAL SW SWELLS CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA E OF 130W WITH 17-18 SEC LONG PERIOD SWELLS REACHING FROM PANAMA TO BAJA CALIFORNIA. COMBINED SEAS OF 8 TO 11 FT WILL PREVAIL OVER MUCH OF THE DEEP TROPICS E OF 130W THROUGH WED. A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN ALONG 80W WILL CROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TUE AND THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WED AND THU. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT NORTHWARD IN RESPONSE TO THE TROPICAL WAVE AND EXTEND FROM SOUTHERN MEXICO ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA BY MID-WEEK...WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH BECOMING UNUSUALLY STRONG. STRONG W-SW WINDS ARE EXPECTED N OF 05N E OF 94W WITH WINDS TO 30 KT LIKELY S OF GUATEMALA AND COSTA RICA. PERSISTENT FRESH TO STRONG SW MONSOONAL FLOW WILL ALLOW SEAS TO BUILD TO 10-12 FT MON NIGHT AND TO 14 FT TUE NIGHT S OF CENTRAL AMERICA. ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE SURGING INTO CENTRAL AMERICA AND SOUTHERN MEXICO HAS THE POTENTIAL TO GENERATE HEAVY RAINFALL AND POSSIBLE MUDSLIDES OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND SOUTHERN MEXICO...ESPECIALLY TUE NIGHT THROUGH FRI. $$ MUNDELL