000 AXPZ20 KNHC 102149 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC SUN JUL 10 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2100 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... MONSOON TROUGH AXIS FROM 10N85W TO 14N98W THEN RESUMES AT 12N120W TO 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG N OF 05N E OF 86W INCLUDING THE GULF OF PANAMA. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FROM 08N TO 12N BETWEEN 87W AND 92W. ...DISCUSSION... THE REMNANT LOW OF CALVIN IS LOCATED NEAR CLARION ISLAND AT 18N115W WITH WINDS OF 25 TO 30 KT WITHIN 120 NM OF THE CENTER. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS VERY LITTLE CONVECTION REMAINING NEAR THE CIRCULATION. THE LOW WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES WNW OVER COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES... AND IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. WEAKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE NW PART OF THE AREA HAS ALLOWED WINDS TO DIMINISH BELOW 20 KT. SEAS WILL REMAIN NEAR 8 FT TONIGHT AS LINGERING NE SWELL MERGES WITH SW SWELL. AFTER SEAS SUBSIDE BELOW 8 FT OVER THE NW PART OF THE AREA MON...N SWELLS TO 8 FT WILL AFFECT THE N WATERS N OF 26N BETWEEN 118W AND 125W BY MON. CROSS-EQUATORIAL SW SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS MUCH OF THE EAST PACIFIC E OF 130W WITH LONG PERIOD SWELLS...WAVE PERIODS BETWEEN 17 TO 18 SECONDS...REACHING ALL THE WAY FROM PANAMA TO BAJA CALIFORNIA. ADDITIONAL PULSES OF SW SWELLS ARE ALREADY CROSSING THE EQUATOR INTO THE FORECAST AREA. COMBINED SEAS OF 8 TO 11 FT WILL PREVAIL OVER MUCH OF THE DEEP TROPICS E OF 130W THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. LOOKING AHEAD...A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WILL MOVE INTO THE W CARIBBEAN THROUGH TUE...CROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TUE AND TUE NIGHT...THEN ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WED AND THU. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT NORTHWARD IN RESPONSE TO THE TROPICAL WAVE AND EXTEND FROM SOUTHERN MEXICO ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA BY MIDWEEK...WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH BECOMING UNUSUALLY STRONG. ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UNUSUALLY STRONG MONSOON TROUGH...A SURGE OF SW MONSOONAL FLOW WILL COMMENCE BY MONDAY MORNING FROM 03N TO 07N BETWEEN 85W AND 100W WITH FRESH TO STRONG WINDS EXPECTED. THE PERSISTENT FRESH TO STRONG SW MONSOONAL FLOW WILL ALLOW SEAS TO BUILD TO 10-12 FT BY MON NIGHT AND UP TO 13 FT BY TUE NIGHT OVER THE E PART OF THE AREA. MARINE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS INCREASING WINDS TO 30 KT SOUTH OF COSTA RICA AND PANAMA BY THU. PERSISTENT STRONG SW MONSOONAL FLOW WILL BRING ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO CENTRAL AMERICA AND SOUTHERN MEXICO...POTENTIALLY GENERATING AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND POSSIBLE MUDSLIDES OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND SOUTHERN MEXICO...ESPECIALLY FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THIS WEEK. WE WILL CONTINUE MONITORING THE MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST ON THIS POSSIBLE SCENARIO. $$ FORMOSA 000 AXPZ20 KNHC 102149 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC SUN JUL 10 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2100 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... MONSOON TROUGH AXIS FROM 10N85W TO 14N98W THEN RESUMES AT 12N120W TO 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG N OF 05N E OF 86W INCLUDING THE GULF OF PANAMA. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FROM 08N TO 12N BETWEEN 87W AND 92W. ...DISCUSSION... THE REMNANT LOW OF CALVIN IS LOCATED NEAR CLARION ISLAND AT 18N115W WITH WINDS OF 25 TO 30 KT WITHIN 120 NM OF THE CENTER. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS VERY LITTLE CONVECTION REMAINING NEAR THE CIRCULATION. THE LOW WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES WNW OVER COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES... AND IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. WEAKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE NW PART OF THE AREA HAS ALLOWED WINDS TO DIMINISH BELOW 20 KT. SEAS WILL REMAIN NEAR 8 FT TONIGHT AS LINGERING NE SWELL MERGES WITH SW SWELL. AFTER SEAS SUBSIDE BELOW 8 FT OVER THE NW PART OF THE AREA MON...N SWELLS TO 8 FT WILL AFFECT THE N WATERS N OF 26N BETWEEN 118W AND 125W BY MON. CROSS-EQUATORIAL SW SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS MUCH OF THE EAST PACIFIC E OF 130W WITH LONG PERIOD SWELLS...WAVE PERIODS BETWEEN 17 TO 18 SECONDS...REACHING ALL THE WAY FROM PANAMA TO BAJA CALIFORNIA. ADDITIONAL PULSES OF SW SWELLS ARE ALREADY CROSSING THE EQUATOR INTO THE FORECAST AREA. COMBINED SEAS OF 8 TO 11 FT WILL PREVAIL OVER MUCH OF THE DEEP TROPICS E OF 130W THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. LOOKING AHEAD...A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WILL MOVE INTO THE W CARIBBEAN THROUGH TUE...CROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TUE AND TUE NIGHT...THEN ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WED AND THU. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT NORTHWARD IN RESPONSE TO THE TROPICAL WAVE AND EXTEND FROM SOUTHERN MEXICO ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA BY MIDWEEK...WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH BECOMING UNUSUALLY STRONG. ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UNUSUALLY STRONG MONSOON TROUGH...A SURGE OF SW MONSOONAL FLOW WILL COMMENCE BY MONDAY MORNING FROM 03N TO 07N BETWEEN 85W AND 100W WITH FRESH TO STRONG WINDS EXPECTED. THE PERSISTENT FRESH TO STRONG SW MONSOONAL FLOW WILL ALLOW SEAS TO BUILD TO 10-12 FT BY MON NIGHT AND UP TO 13 FT BY TUE NIGHT OVER THE E PART OF THE AREA. MARINE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS INCREASING WINDS TO 30 KT SOUTH OF COSTA RICA AND PANAMA BY THU. PERSISTENT STRONG SW MONSOONAL FLOW WILL BRING ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO CENTRAL AMERICA AND SOUTHERN MEXICO...POTENTIALLY GENERATING AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND POSSIBLE MUDSLIDES OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND SOUTHERN MEXICO...ESPECIALLY FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THIS WEEK. WE WILL CONTINUE MONITORING THE MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST ON THIS POSSIBLE SCENARIO. $$ FORMOSA