000 AXPZ20 KNHC 100930 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC SUN JUL 10 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0900 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... MONSOON TROUGH AXIS FROM 10N85W TO 11N97W TO 18N113W TO 07N129W THEN ITCZ TO 05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM S OF MONSOON TROUGH AXIS E OF 95W. ...DISCUSSION... CALVIN IS A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW WITH WINDS 30 KT OR LESS NEAR THE CENTER AND SEAS TO 12 FT. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS VERY LITTLE CONVECTION REMAINING NEAR THE CIRCULATION. THE LOW WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES OVER COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES...AND IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE WITHIN THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. WEAKENING PRES GRADIENT OVER THE NW PART OF THE AREA HAS ALLOWED WINDS TO DIMINISH BELOW 20 KT. SEAS WILL REMAIN NEAR 8 FT TODAY AS LINGERING NE SWELL MERGES WITH SW SWELL. AFTER SEAS SUBSIDE BELOW 8 FT OVER THE NW PART OF THE AREA MON...N SWELLS TO 8 FT WILL AFFECT THE N WATERS N OF 25N BETWEEN 118W AND 126W BY MON. CROSS-EQUATORIAL SW SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS MUCH OF THE EAST PACIFIC E OF 130W WITH LONG PERIOD SWELLS REACHING ALL THE WAY FROM PANAMA TO BAJA CALIFORNIA. COMBINED SEAS OF 8 TO 11 FT WILL PREVAIL OVER MUCH OF THE DEEP TROPICS BETWEEN 95W AND 130W THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. LOOKING AHEAD...A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WILL MOVE INTO THE W CARIBBEAN THROUGH TUE. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT NORTHWARD IN RESPONSE TO THE TROPICAL WAVE AND EXTEND FROM SOUTHERN MEXICO ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA BY MIDWEEK. THE MONSOON TROUGH WILL BECOME CONSIDERABLY STRONGER MON THROUGH WED...WITH WESTERLY FLOW REACHING UP TO 700 MB. A SURGE OF SW MONSOONAL FLOW WILL COMMENCE BY MONDAY MORNING FROM 02N TO 08N BETWEEN 80W AND 100W WITH FRESH TO STRONG WINDS EXPECTED. THE PERSISTENT FRESH TO STRONG SW MONSOONAL FLOW WILL ALLOW SEAS TO BUILD TO 10-12 FT BY WED OVER THE E PART OF THE AREA. PERSISTENT STRONG SW MONSOONAL FLOW WILL BRING ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO CENTRAL AMERICA. ASSUMING THE MODELS ARE CORRECT...HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND SOUTHERN MEXICO THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. $$ MUNDELL 000 AXPZ20 KNHC 100930 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC SUN JUL 10 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0900 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... MONSOON TROUGH AXIS FROM 10N85W TO 11N97W TO 18N113W TO 07N129W THEN ITCZ TO 05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM S OF MONSOON TROUGH AXIS E OF 95W. ...DISCUSSION... CALVIN IS A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW WITH WINDS 30 KT OR LESS NEAR THE CENTER AND SEAS TO 12 FT. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS VERY LITTLE CONVECTION REMAINING NEAR THE CIRCULATION. THE LOW WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES OVER COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES...AND IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE WITHIN THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. WEAKENING PRES GRADIENT OVER THE NW PART OF THE AREA HAS ALLOWED WINDS TO DIMINISH BELOW 20 KT. SEAS WILL REMAIN NEAR 8 FT TODAY AS LINGERING NE SWELL MERGES WITH SW SWELL. AFTER SEAS SUBSIDE BELOW 8 FT OVER THE NW PART OF THE AREA MON...N SWELLS TO 8 FT WILL AFFECT THE N WATERS N OF 25N BETWEEN 118W AND 126W BY MON. CROSS-EQUATORIAL SW SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS MUCH OF THE EAST PACIFIC E OF 130W WITH LONG PERIOD SWELLS REACHING ALL THE WAY FROM PANAMA TO BAJA CALIFORNIA. COMBINED SEAS OF 8 TO 11 FT WILL PREVAIL OVER MUCH OF THE DEEP TROPICS BETWEEN 95W AND 130W THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. LOOKING AHEAD...A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WILL MOVE INTO THE W CARIBBEAN THROUGH TUE. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT NORTHWARD IN RESPONSE TO THE TROPICAL WAVE AND EXTEND FROM SOUTHERN MEXICO ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA BY MIDWEEK. THE MONSOON TROUGH WILL BECOME CONSIDERABLY STRONGER MON THROUGH WED...WITH WESTERLY FLOW REACHING UP TO 700 MB. A SURGE OF SW MONSOONAL FLOW WILL COMMENCE BY MONDAY MORNING FROM 02N TO 08N BETWEEN 80W AND 100W WITH FRESH TO STRONG WINDS EXPECTED. THE PERSISTENT FRESH TO STRONG SW MONSOONAL FLOW WILL ALLOW SEAS TO BUILD TO 10-12 FT BY WED OVER THE E PART OF THE AREA. PERSISTENT STRONG SW MONSOONAL FLOW WILL BRING ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO CENTRAL AMERICA. ASSUMING THE MODELS ARE CORRECT...HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND SOUTHERN MEXICO THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. $$ MUNDELL