000 AXPZ20 KNHC 100330 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC SUN JUL 10 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0245 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... AT 10/0300 UTC...TROPICAL STORM CALVIN HAS BEEN DOWNGRADED TO A POST TROPICAL CYCLONE WITH CURRENT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT...WITH ESTIMATED MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE OF 1005 MB. ALSO AT ADVISORY TIME...THE CENTER OF CALVIN WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 112.6W WITH MOVEMENT TOWARD THE W-NW OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 KT. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM W QUADRANT. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... DISCONTINUOUS MONSOON TROUGH AXIS FROM 10N85W TO 15N102W...THEN FROM 14N115W TO 07N132W...THEN ITCZ TO BEYOND 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 210 NM S OF MONSOON TROUGH AXIS E OF 93W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM S OF MONSOON TROUGH AXIS BETWEEN 96W AND 99W. ...DISCUSSION... CALVIN HAS WEAKENED TO A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW...AND THE REMNANT LOW IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO DISSIPATE BY TUE MORNING. HIGH PRES 1030 MB CENTERED NW OF THE NEAR 38N158W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE NW PART OF THE AREA HAS RELAXED ENOUGH WHERE WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED BELOW 20 KT THIS AFTERNOON...AS CONFIRMED BY THE MOST RECENT ASCAT AND WINDSAT PASS. DESPITE THE WINDS FALLING BELOW 20 KT...SEAS WILL REMAIN IN THE 8 FT RANGE OVER THE NEXT DAY AS LINGERING NE SWELL MERGES WITH SW SWELL. AFTER SEAS SUBSIDE BELOW 8 FT OVER THE NW PART OF THE AREA BY MON...N SWELLS TO 8 FT WILL AFFECT THE N WATERS N OF 25N BETWEEN 118W AND 126W BY MON. CROSS-EQUATORIAL SW SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS MUCH OF THE EAST PACIFIC E OF 130W WITH LONG PERIOD SWELLS REACHING ALL THE WAY FROM PANAMA TO BAJA CALIFORNIA. COMBINED SEAS OF 8 TO 11 FT WILL PREVAIL OVER MUCH OF THE DEEP TROPICS BETWEEN 95W AND 130W THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. LOOKING AHEAD...A TROPICAL WAVE...CURRENTLY IN THE E CARIBBEAN WILL MOVE INTO THE W CARIBBEAN EARLY NEXT WEEK...THEN INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO BY MIDWEEK. IN RESPONSE TO THIS...THE MONSOON TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT NORTHWARD WHERE IT IS FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM SOUTHERN MEXICO ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA BY MIDWEEK. IN ADDITION...THE MONSOON TROUGH WILL BECOME CONSIDERABLY STRONGER BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK...WITH WESTERLY FLOW REACHING UP TO 700 MB. ASSOCIATED WITH THIS INCREASE IN INTENSITY...A SURGE OF FRESH 20 KT SW MONSOONAL FLOW WILL COMMENCE BY MONDAY MORNING FROM 02N TO 08N BETWEEN 80W AND 100W WITH FRESH TO STRONG WINDS EXPECTED OVER THAT SAME GENERAL AREA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE STRONG WINDS WILL FOLLOW THE MONSOON TROUGH NORTHWARD AS THE MONSOON TROUGH SHIFTS NORTHWARD THROUGH MIDWEEK. WITH PERSISTENT FRESH TO STRONG SW MONSOONAL FLOW...SEAS WILL BUILD TO 10-12 FT BY WED OVER THE E PART OF THE AREA. MODEL GUIDANCE IS ALSO SUGGESTING THAT THE STRONG SW MONSOONAL FLOW WILL PERSIST...ADVECTING ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE WITH IT INTO CENTRAL AMERICA. IT MUST BE MENTIONED THAT THERE IS ALWAYS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST GUIDANCE...HOWEVER...IF THE MODELS ARE CORRECT AND THIS SCENARIO PLAYS OUT...HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA OR SOUTHERN MEXICO...ESPECIALLY FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. $$ AL 000 AXPZ20 KNHC 100330 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC SUN JUL 10 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0245 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... AT 10/0300 UTC...TROPICAL STORM CALVIN HAS BEEN DOWNGRADED TO A POST TROPICAL CYCLONE WITH CURRENT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT...WITH ESTIMATED MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE OF 1005 MB. ALSO AT ADVISORY TIME...THE CENTER OF CALVIN WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 112.6W WITH MOVEMENT TOWARD THE W-NW OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 KT. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM W QUADRANT. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... DISCONTINUOUS MONSOON TROUGH AXIS FROM 10N85W TO 15N102W...THEN FROM 14N115W TO 07N132W...THEN ITCZ TO BEYOND 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 210 NM S OF MONSOON TROUGH AXIS E OF 93W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM S OF MONSOON TROUGH AXIS BETWEEN 96W AND 99W. ...DISCUSSION... CALVIN HAS WEAKENED TO A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW...AND THE REMNANT LOW IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO DISSIPATE BY TUE MORNING. HIGH PRES 1030 MB CENTERED NW OF THE NEAR 38N158W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE NW PART OF THE AREA HAS RELAXED ENOUGH WHERE WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED BELOW 20 KT THIS AFTERNOON...AS CONFIRMED BY THE MOST RECENT ASCAT AND WINDSAT PASS. DESPITE THE WINDS FALLING BELOW 20 KT...SEAS WILL REMAIN IN THE 8 FT RANGE OVER THE NEXT DAY AS LINGERING NE SWELL MERGES WITH SW SWELL. AFTER SEAS SUBSIDE BELOW 8 FT OVER THE NW PART OF THE AREA BY MON...N SWELLS TO 8 FT WILL AFFECT THE N WATERS N OF 25N BETWEEN 118W AND 126W BY MON. CROSS-EQUATORIAL SW SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS MUCH OF THE EAST PACIFIC E OF 130W WITH LONG PERIOD SWELLS REACHING ALL THE WAY FROM PANAMA TO BAJA CALIFORNIA. COMBINED SEAS OF 8 TO 11 FT WILL PREVAIL OVER MUCH OF THE DEEP TROPICS BETWEEN 95W AND 130W THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. LOOKING AHEAD...A TROPICAL WAVE...CURRENTLY IN THE E CARIBBEAN WILL MOVE INTO THE W CARIBBEAN EARLY NEXT WEEK...THEN INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO BY MIDWEEK. IN RESPONSE TO THIS...THE MONSOON TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT NORTHWARD WHERE IT IS FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM SOUTHERN MEXICO ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA BY MIDWEEK. IN ADDITION...THE MONSOON TROUGH WILL BECOME CONSIDERABLY STRONGER BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK...WITH WESTERLY FLOW REACHING UP TO 700 MB. ASSOCIATED WITH THIS INCREASE IN INTENSITY...A SURGE OF FRESH 20 KT SW MONSOONAL FLOW WILL COMMENCE BY MONDAY MORNING FROM 02N TO 08N BETWEEN 80W AND 100W WITH FRESH TO STRONG WINDS EXPECTED OVER THAT SAME GENERAL AREA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE STRONG WINDS WILL FOLLOW THE MONSOON TROUGH NORTHWARD AS THE MONSOON TROUGH SHIFTS NORTHWARD THROUGH MIDWEEK. WITH PERSISTENT FRESH TO STRONG SW MONSOONAL FLOW...SEAS WILL BUILD TO 10-12 FT BY WED OVER THE E PART OF THE AREA. MODEL GUIDANCE IS ALSO SUGGESTING THAT THE STRONG SW MONSOONAL FLOW WILL PERSIST...ADVECTING ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE WITH IT INTO CENTRAL AMERICA. IT MUST BE MENTIONED THAT THERE IS ALWAYS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST GUIDANCE...HOWEVER...IF THE MODELS ARE CORRECT AND THIS SCENARIO PLAYS OUT...HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA OR SOUTHERN MEXICO...ESPECIALLY FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. $$ AL