000 AXPZ20 KNHC 092135 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC SAT JUL 09 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... TROPICAL STORM CALVIN CONTINUES TO WEAKEN WITH CURRENT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT...AND ESTIMATED MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE OF 1000 MB AT 09/2100 UTC. ALSO AT ADVISORY TIME...THE CENTER OF CALVIN WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 111.7W WITH MOVEMENT TOWARD THE W-NW OR 285 DEGREES AT 8 KT. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM W SEMICIRCLE. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... DISCONTINUOUS MONSOON TROUGH AXIS FROM 10N85W TO 15N102W...THEN FROM 14N115W TO 07N132W...THEN ITCZ TO BEYOND 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 210 NM S OF MONSOON TROUGH AXIS E OF 94W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 210 NM S OF MONSOON TROUGH AXIS BETWEEN 96W AND 100W. ...DISCUSSION... CALVIN CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES OVER COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE...AND IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO DISSIPATE BY TUE MORNING. THE 1734 UTC ASCAT PASS DEPICTED THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION OF CALVIN REALLY WELL...AND WAS USED TO ESTIMATE THE EXTENT OF THE 20 KT WINDS AROUND THE CENTER. HIGH PRES CENTERED NW OF THE AREA HAS RECEDED WESTWARD AND IS NOW CENTERED NEAR 38N158W. THIS HAS ENABLED THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO RELAX ENOUGH WHERE WINDS OVER THE NW PART OF THE AREA HAVE DIMINISHED BELOW 20 KT...AS CONFIRMED BY THE LATEST ASCAT AND WINDSAT PASS. DESPITE THE WINDS FALLING BELOW 20 KT...SEAS WILL REMAIN IN THE 8 FT RANGE OVER THE NEXT DAY AS LINGERING NE SWELL MERGES WITH SW SWELL. AFTER SEAS SUBSIDE BELOW 8 FT OVER THE NW PART OF THE AREA BY MON...N SWELLS TO 8 FT WILL AFFECT THE N WATERS N OF 25N BETWEEN 118W AND 126W BY MON. CROSS-EQUATORIAL SW SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL OVER THE DEEP TROPICS...GENERALLY S OF 12N BETWEEN 95W AND 130W THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. WAVE HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH UP TO 11 FT AS THE SWELLS CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE. LOOKING AHEAD...THE MONSOON TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT NORTHWARD IN RESPONSE TO A TROPICAL WAVE...CURRENTLY IN THE E CARIBBEAN...MOVING INTO THE W CARIBBEAN EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN ADDITION...THE MONSOON TROUGH WILL BECOME CONSIDERABLY STRONGER...WITH WESTERLY FLOW REACHING UP TO 700 MB. ASSOCIATED WITH THIS INCREASE IN INTENSITY...A SURGE OF SW MONSOONAL FLOW WILL COMMENCE BY MONDAY MORNING FROM 03N TO 07N BETWEEN 80W AND 100W WITH FRESH TO STRONG WINDS EXPECTED OVER THAT SAME GENERAL AREA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. WITH CONTINUED FRESH TO STRONG SW MONSOONAL FLOW...SEAS WILL BUILD TO 10-12 FT BY WED OVER THE E PART OF THE AREA. $$ AL 000 AXPZ20 KNHC 092135 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC SAT JUL 09 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... TROPICAL STORM CALVIN CONTINUES TO WEAKEN WITH CURRENT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT...AND ESTIMATED MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE OF 1000 MB AT 09/2100 UTC. ALSO AT ADVISORY TIME...THE CENTER OF CALVIN WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 111.7W WITH MOVEMENT TOWARD THE W-NW OR 285 DEGREES AT 8 KT. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM W SEMICIRCLE. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... DISCONTINUOUS MONSOON TROUGH AXIS FROM 10N85W TO 15N102W...THEN FROM 14N115W TO 07N132W...THEN ITCZ TO BEYOND 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 210 NM S OF MONSOON TROUGH AXIS E OF 94W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 210 NM S OF MONSOON TROUGH AXIS BETWEEN 96W AND 100W. ...DISCUSSION... CALVIN CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES OVER COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE...AND IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO DISSIPATE BY TUE MORNING. THE 1734 UTC ASCAT PASS DEPICTED THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION OF CALVIN REALLY WELL...AND WAS USED TO ESTIMATE THE EXTENT OF THE 20 KT WINDS AROUND THE CENTER. HIGH PRES CENTERED NW OF THE AREA HAS RECEDED WESTWARD AND IS NOW CENTERED NEAR 38N158W. THIS HAS ENABLED THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO RELAX ENOUGH WHERE WINDS OVER THE NW PART OF THE AREA HAVE DIMINISHED BELOW 20 KT...AS CONFIRMED BY THE LATEST ASCAT AND WINDSAT PASS. DESPITE THE WINDS FALLING BELOW 20 KT...SEAS WILL REMAIN IN THE 8 FT RANGE OVER THE NEXT DAY AS LINGERING NE SWELL MERGES WITH SW SWELL. AFTER SEAS SUBSIDE BELOW 8 FT OVER THE NW PART OF THE AREA BY MON...N SWELLS TO 8 FT WILL AFFECT THE N WATERS N OF 25N BETWEEN 118W AND 126W BY MON. CROSS-EQUATORIAL SW SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL OVER THE DEEP TROPICS...GENERALLY S OF 12N BETWEEN 95W AND 130W THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. WAVE HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH UP TO 11 FT AS THE SWELLS CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE. LOOKING AHEAD...THE MONSOON TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT NORTHWARD IN RESPONSE TO A TROPICAL WAVE...CURRENTLY IN THE E CARIBBEAN...MOVING INTO THE W CARIBBEAN EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN ADDITION...THE MONSOON TROUGH WILL BECOME CONSIDERABLY STRONGER...WITH WESTERLY FLOW REACHING UP TO 700 MB. ASSOCIATED WITH THIS INCREASE IN INTENSITY...A SURGE OF SW MONSOONAL FLOW WILL COMMENCE BY MONDAY MORNING FROM 03N TO 07N BETWEEN 80W AND 100W WITH FRESH TO STRONG WINDS EXPECTED OVER THAT SAME GENERAL AREA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. WITH CONTINUED FRESH TO STRONG SW MONSOONAL FLOW...SEAS WILL BUILD TO 10-12 FT BY WED OVER THE E PART OF THE AREA. $$ AL