000 AXPZ20 KNHC 091525 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC SAT JUL 09 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... HURRICANE CALVIN WAS DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM AT 09/1500 UTC. AT THIS TIME...IT IS LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 111.3W MOVING W-NW OR 285 DEGREES AT 10 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM W SEMICIRCLE. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... DISCONTINUOUS MONSOON TROUGH AXIS FROM 10N85W TO 16N104W...AND FROM 11N111W TO 07N116W...THEN ITCZ TO 08N128W TO BEYOND 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG N OF 04N E OF 81W TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA...WITHIN 140 NM N OF MONSOON TROUGH AXIS FROM 88W TO 89W...AND FROM 12N TO 15N BETWEEN 95W AND 101W. ...DISCUSSION... CALVIN IS NOW A TROPICAL STORM. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT MOST OF THE CONVECTION IS DISPLACED W OF THE LOW LEVEL CENTER. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS MOVING INTO A REGION OF HIGHER PRESSURE AND COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES...WHICH WILL CAUSE CALVIN TO DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS. THE 0504 UTC HIGH RESOLUTION ASCAT PASS WAS USED TO FORECAST THE EXTENT OF THE 20 KT WINDS AROUND THE CENTER. HIGH PRES RIDGE N AND NW OF THE AREA IS RECEDING WESTWARD. AS A RESULT THE PRES GRADIENT IS RELAXING IN THE NW PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY BUT STEADILY DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. WINDS/SEAS WILL BE BELOW 20 KT AND 8 FT BY LATE SUN NIGHT. N SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE N WATERS N OF 27N BETWEEN 120W AND 130W BY MON RAISING SEAS TO AROUND 8 FT. CROSS-EQUATORIAL SW SWELLS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE DEEP TROPICS S OF 10N BETWEEN 95W AND 130W THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. WAVE HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 11 FT AS THE SWELLS CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING A SURGE OF SW WINDS INTO THE MONSOON TROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK S OF CENTRAL AMERICA. EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE TO 2O KT FROM 03N TO 06N BETWEEN 82W AND 96W BY MON AND TO AROUND 25 KT TUE AND WED WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 10-12 FT BY WED. $$ GR 000 AXPZ20 KNHC 091525 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC SAT JUL 09 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... HURRICANE CALVIN WAS DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM AT 09/1500 UTC. AT THIS TIME...IT IS LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 111.3W MOVING W-NW OR 285 DEGREES AT 10 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM W SEMICIRCLE. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... DISCONTINUOUS MONSOON TROUGH AXIS FROM 10N85W TO 16N104W...AND FROM 11N111W TO 07N116W...THEN ITCZ TO 08N128W TO BEYOND 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG N OF 04N E OF 81W TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA...WITHIN 140 NM N OF MONSOON TROUGH AXIS FROM 88W TO 89W...AND FROM 12N TO 15N BETWEEN 95W AND 101W. ...DISCUSSION... CALVIN IS NOW A TROPICAL STORM. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT MOST OF THE CONVECTION IS DISPLACED W OF THE LOW LEVEL CENTER. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS MOVING INTO A REGION OF HIGHER PRESSURE AND COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES...WHICH WILL CAUSE CALVIN TO DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS. THE 0504 UTC HIGH RESOLUTION ASCAT PASS WAS USED TO FORECAST THE EXTENT OF THE 20 KT WINDS AROUND THE CENTER. HIGH PRES RIDGE N AND NW OF THE AREA IS RECEDING WESTWARD. AS A RESULT THE PRES GRADIENT IS RELAXING IN THE NW PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY BUT STEADILY DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. WINDS/SEAS WILL BE BELOW 20 KT AND 8 FT BY LATE SUN NIGHT. N SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE N WATERS N OF 27N BETWEEN 120W AND 130W BY MON RAISING SEAS TO AROUND 8 FT. CROSS-EQUATORIAL SW SWELLS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE DEEP TROPICS S OF 10N BETWEEN 95W AND 130W THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. WAVE HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 11 FT AS THE SWELLS CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING A SURGE OF SW WINDS INTO THE MONSOON TROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK S OF CENTRAL AMERICA. EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE TO 2O KT FROM 03N TO 06N BETWEEN 82W AND 96W BY MON AND TO AROUND 25 KT TUE AND WED WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 10-12 FT BY WED. $$ GR