000 AXPZ20 KNHC 090930 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC SAT JUL 9 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0900 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... HURRICANE CALVIN WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 110.1W AT 09/0900 UTC MOVING WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 10 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 987 MB. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS LOCATED WITHIN 150 NM OF THE CENTER. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... DISCONTINUOUS MONSOON TROUGH AXIS FROM 10N85W TO 14N99W...AND FROM 13N110W TO 10N114W TO 08N135W...THEN ITCZ TO BEYOND 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 89W AND 99W. ...DISCUSSION... HURRICANE CALVIN CONTINUES TO MOVE WNW AND MAINTAIN MINIMAL CAT 1 HURRICANE INTENSITY. MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS MOST CONVECTION IS DISPLACED W OF THE LOW LEVEL CENTER...BUT INFRARED SAT IMAGERY SHOWS PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CIRCULATION CENTER. THE HURRICANE IS MOVING INTO A REGION OF HIGHER PRESSURE AND COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES...WHICH WILL CAUSE CALVIN TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS. A SCATTEROMETER PASS DIRECTLY OVER CALVIN AT 0504 UTC WAS USED TO CALIBRATE 20 KT WINDS AROUND THE CENTER. HIGH PRES RIDGE N AND NW OF THE AREA IS RECEDING WESTWARD. AS A RESULT THE PRES GRADIENT IS RELAXING IN THE NW PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY BUT STEADILY DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. WINDS/SEAS WILL BE BELOW 20 KT AND 8 FT BY SUN NIGHT. CROSS-EQUATORIAL SW SWELLS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE DEEP TROPICS S OF 10N BETWEEN 95W AND 130W THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WAVE HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 11 FT AS THE SWELLS CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING A STRONG SURGE OF WESTERLY WINDS INTO THE MONSOON TROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK S OF CENTRAL AMERICA. EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE TO AROUND 25 KT TUE AND WED WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 10-12 FT BY WED. PATTERN DOES NOT APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLOGENESIS DUE TO HIGH VORTICITY AXIS WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH REMAINING OVER CENTRAL AMERICA. $$ MUNDELL 000 AXPZ20 KNHC 090930 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC SAT JUL 9 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0900 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... HURRICANE CALVIN WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 110.1W AT 09/0900 UTC MOVING WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 10 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 987 MB. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS LOCATED WITHIN 150 NM OF THE CENTER. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... DISCONTINUOUS MONSOON TROUGH AXIS FROM 10N85W TO 14N99W...AND FROM 13N110W TO 10N114W TO 08N135W...THEN ITCZ TO BEYOND 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 89W AND 99W. ...DISCUSSION... HURRICANE CALVIN CONTINUES TO MOVE WNW AND MAINTAIN MINIMAL CAT 1 HURRICANE INTENSITY. MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS MOST CONVECTION IS DISPLACED W OF THE LOW LEVEL CENTER...BUT INFRARED SAT IMAGERY SHOWS PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CIRCULATION CENTER. THE HURRICANE IS MOVING INTO A REGION OF HIGHER PRESSURE AND COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES...WHICH WILL CAUSE CALVIN TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS. A SCATTEROMETER PASS DIRECTLY OVER CALVIN AT 0504 UTC WAS USED TO CALIBRATE 20 KT WINDS AROUND THE CENTER. HIGH PRES RIDGE N AND NW OF THE AREA IS RECEDING WESTWARD. AS A RESULT THE PRES GRADIENT IS RELAXING IN THE NW PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY BUT STEADILY DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. WINDS/SEAS WILL BE BELOW 20 KT AND 8 FT BY SUN NIGHT. CROSS-EQUATORIAL SW SWELLS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE DEEP TROPICS S OF 10N BETWEEN 95W AND 130W THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WAVE HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 11 FT AS THE SWELLS CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING A STRONG SURGE OF WESTERLY WINDS INTO THE MONSOON TROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK S OF CENTRAL AMERICA. EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE TO AROUND 25 KT TUE AND WED WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 10-12 FT BY WED. PATTERN DOES NOT APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLOGENESIS DUE TO HIGH VORTICITY AXIS WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH REMAINING OVER CENTRAL AMERICA. $$ MUNDELL