000 AXPZ20 KNHC 081525 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC FRI JUL 08 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... TROPICAL STORM CALVIN IS LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 107.6W AT 08/1500 UTC MOVING W-NW OR 275 DEGREES AT 15 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASE TO 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 70 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS LOCATED WITHIN 150 NM OF THE CENTER. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... MONSOON TROUGH AXIS FROM 10N85W TO 16N95W THEN RESUMES AT 10N106W TO 07N111W THEN ITCZ TO 09N130W TO BEYOND 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG IS WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE MONSOON TROUGH FROM 87W TO 93W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 150 NM N OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 129W AND 133W. ...DISCUSSION... UNIFORMLY COLD CLOUD TOPS FROM INTENSE CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER OF T.S. CALVIN WAS MASKING THE LOW LEVEL FEATURES ASSOCIATED WITH IT. FIRST LIGHT VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE CENTER WAS FURTHER WEST AND AN EYE-LIKE FEATURE WAS TRYING TO FORM. CALVIN IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY REACHING HURRICANE STATUS TONIGHT AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE W-NW BUT SOME WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN ON SATURDAY. PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRES CENTERED NW OF THE AREA NEAR 38N147W AND LOWER PRES ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ IS SUPPORTING FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS OVER THE EXTREME NW PORTION AREA NW OF A LINE FROM 30N132W TO 25N140W. AN EARLIER AS CAT PASS ALONG WITH FEW SHIP OBSERVATIONS VERIFIED THESE WIND SPEEDS. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH BELOW 20 KT BY LATE SAT...WITH SEAS DIMINISHING BELOW 8 FT LATE SUN AS THE HIGH PRES WEAKENS AND A NEW HIGH PRES CENTERED NEAR 38W157W BECOMES DOMINANT. CROSS-EQUATORIAL SW SWELLS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE DEEP TROPICS S OF 10N BETWEEN 95W AND 135W THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WAVE HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 11 FT AS THE SWELLS CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE. $$ GR 000 AXPZ20 KNHC 081525 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC FRI JUL 08 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... TROPICAL STORM CALVIN IS LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 107.6W AT 08/1500 UTC MOVING W-NW OR 275 DEGREES AT 15 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASE TO 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 70 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS LOCATED WITHIN 150 NM OF THE CENTER. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... MONSOON TROUGH AXIS FROM 10N85W TO 16N95W THEN RESUMES AT 10N106W TO 07N111W THEN ITCZ TO 09N130W TO BEYOND 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG IS WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE MONSOON TROUGH FROM 87W TO 93W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 150 NM N OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 129W AND 133W. ...DISCUSSION... UNIFORMLY COLD CLOUD TOPS FROM INTENSE CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER OF T.S. CALVIN WAS MASKING THE LOW LEVEL FEATURES ASSOCIATED WITH IT. FIRST LIGHT VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE CENTER WAS FURTHER WEST AND AN EYE-LIKE FEATURE WAS TRYING TO FORM. CALVIN IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY REACHING HURRICANE STATUS TONIGHT AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE W-NW BUT SOME WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN ON SATURDAY. PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRES CENTERED NW OF THE AREA NEAR 38N147W AND LOWER PRES ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ IS SUPPORTING FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS OVER THE EXTREME NW PORTION AREA NW OF A LINE FROM 30N132W TO 25N140W. AN EARLIER AS CAT PASS ALONG WITH FEW SHIP OBSERVATIONS VERIFIED THESE WIND SPEEDS. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH BELOW 20 KT BY LATE SAT...WITH SEAS DIMINISHING BELOW 8 FT LATE SUN AS THE HIGH PRES WEAKENS AND A NEW HIGH PRES CENTERED NEAR 38W157W BECOMES DOMINANT. CROSS-EQUATORIAL SW SWELLS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE DEEP TROPICS S OF 10N BETWEEN 95W AND 135W THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WAVE HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 11 FT AS THE SWELLS CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE. $$ GR