000 AXPZ20 KNHC 072114 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC THU JUL 07 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE IS CENTERED NEAR 15.4N 103.2W AT 07/2100 UTC MOVING W-NW OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH GUSTS OF 40 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS /WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS LOCATED TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... MONSOON TROUGH AXIS FROM 11N85W TO 14.5N96W THEN BREAKS AND CONTINUES FROM 12N103W TO 09N113W THEN ITCZ TO BEYOND 05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 130W AND 136W. ...DISCUSSION... AT THE SURFACE...A 1031 MB HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED NW OF THE AREA NEAR 36N146W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS HIGH PRESSURE AND THE ITCZ IS SUPPORTING FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS OVER THE AREA NW OF A LINE FROM 30N130W TO 21N140W AS CAPTURED BY RECENT 1014 UTC ASCAT PASS. THESE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO EDGE SLOWLY WESTWARD OVER THE NW PART OF THE AREA THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS THE HIGH PRES MOVES WWD. CROSS-EQUATORIAL MIXED SE AND SW SWELLS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE S CENTRAL WATERS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS WILL REACH AS HIGH AS 11 FT AS THE SWELLS CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE INTO THE AREA. $$ AL 000 AXPZ20 KNHC 072114 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC THU JUL 07 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE IS CENTERED NEAR 15.4N 103.2W AT 07/2100 UTC MOVING W-NW OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH GUSTS OF 40 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS /WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS LOCATED TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... MONSOON TROUGH AXIS FROM 11N85W TO 14.5N96W THEN BREAKS AND CONTINUES FROM 12N103W TO 09N113W THEN ITCZ TO BEYOND 05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 130W AND 136W. ...DISCUSSION... AT THE SURFACE...A 1031 MB HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED NW OF THE AREA NEAR 36N146W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS HIGH PRESSURE AND THE ITCZ IS SUPPORTING FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS OVER THE AREA NW OF A LINE FROM 30N130W TO 21N140W AS CAPTURED BY RECENT 1014 UTC ASCAT PASS. THESE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO EDGE SLOWLY WESTWARD OVER THE NW PART OF THE AREA THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS THE HIGH PRES MOVES WWD. CROSS-EQUATORIAL MIXED SE AND SW SWELLS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE S CENTRAL WATERS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS WILL REACH AS HIGH AS 11 FT AS THE SWELLS CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE INTO THE AREA. $$ AL