000 AXPZ20 KNHC 071537 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC THU JUL 07 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER LOCATED SOUTH OF MEXICO HAS ACQUIRED ENOUGH ORGANIZATION TO BE CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE. IT IS CENTERED NEAR 14.6N 101.2W AT 07/1500 UTC MOVING W-NW OR 290 DEGREES AT 11 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH GUSTS OF 40 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS /WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS LOCATED TO THE WEST OF THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION DUE TO EASTERLY SHEAR. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... MONSOON TROUGH AXIS FROM 16N95W TO 15N100W THROUGH 1006 MB LOW NEAR 14.5N101.5W TO 08N110W TO 08N120W THEN ITCZ THROUGH 08N130W TO BEYOND 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 130W AND 136W. ...DISCUSSION... AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR 29N140W DOMINATES THE NW CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS LOCATED TO THE S OF THE ANTICYLONE AND EXTENDS FROM 13N140W TO 06N132W. SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY IS NEAR THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH AND S OF THE ITCZ AXIS. FURTHER E...ANOTHER ANTICYLONE SITUATED JUST TO THE NW OF THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC DOMINATES THE FLOW OVER THE TROPICAL PACIFIC E OF 110W. A DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE IS HELPING TO INDUCE SOME CONVECTION FROM 08N TO 14N BETWEEN 90W AND 95W. TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE IS CURRENTLY MOVING AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS ANTICYCLONE THAT EXTENDS A RIDGE WWD REACHING 110W. AS A RESULT...A GENERAL W-NW TRACK IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...KEEPING THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE WELL SOUTH OF THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO. AT THE SURFACE...A 1030 MB HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED NW OF THE AREA NEAR 36N147W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS HIGH PRESSURE AND THE ITCZ IS SUPPORTING FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS OVER THE AREA NW OF A LINE FROM 30N130W TO 22N140W AS CAPTURED BY AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS. THESE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO EDGE SLOWLY WESTWARD OVER THE NW PART OF THE AREA THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS THE HIGH PRES MOVES WWD. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 22N124W TO 18N123W. CROSS-EQUATORIAL MIXED SE AND SW SWELLS HAVE MOVED INTO S CENTRAL WATERS WHERE THEY ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN S OF 10N THROUGH SAT MORNING. SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS WILL REACH AS HIGH AS 11 FT AS THE SWELLS CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE INTO THE AREA. $$ GR 000 AXPZ20 KNHC 071537 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC THU JUL 07 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER LOCATED SOUTH OF MEXICO HAS ACQUIRED ENOUGH ORGANIZATION TO BE CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE. IT IS CENTERED NEAR 14.6N 101.2W AT 07/1500 UTC MOVING W-NW OR 290 DEGREES AT 11 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH GUSTS OF 40 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS /WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS LOCATED TO THE WEST OF THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION DUE TO EASTERLY SHEAR. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... MONSOON TROUGH AXIS FROM 16N95W TO 15N100W THROUGH 1006 MB LOW NEAR 14.5N101.5W TO 08N110W TO 08N120W THEN ITCZ THROUGH 08N130W TO BEYOND 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 130W AND 136W. ...DISCUSSION... AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR 29N140W DOMINATES THE NW CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS LOCATED TO THE S OF THE ANTICYLONE AND EXTENDS FROM 13N140W TO 06N132W. SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY IS NEAR THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH AND S OF THE ITCZ AXIS. FURTHER E...ANOTHER ANTICYLONE SITUATED JUST TO THE NW OF THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC DOMINATES THE FLOW OVER THE TROPICAL PACIFIC E OF 110W. A DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE IS HELPING TO INDUCE SOME CONVECTION FROM 08N TO 14N BETWEEN 90W AND 95W. TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE IS CURRENTLY MOVING AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS ANTICYCLONE THAT EXTENDS A RIDGE WWD REACHING 110W. AS A RESULT...A GENERAL W-NW TRACK IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...KEEPING THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE WELL SOUTH OF THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO. AT THE SURFACE...A 1030 MB HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED NW OF THE AREA NEAR 36N147W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS HIGH PRESSURE AND THE ITCZ IS SUPPORTING FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS OVER THE AREA NW OF A LINE FROM 30N130W TO 22N140W AS CAPTURED BY AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS. THESE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO EDGE SLOWLY WESTWARD OVER THE NW PART OF THE AREA THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS THE HIGH PRES MOVES WWD. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 22N124W TO 18N123W. CROSS-EQUATORIAL MIXED SE AND SW SWELLS HAVE MOVED INTO S CENTRAL WATERS WHERE THEY ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN S OF 10N THROUGH SAT MORNING. SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS WILL REACH AS HIGH AS 11 FT AS THE SWELLS CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE INTO THE AREA. $$ GR