000 AXPZ20 KNHC 070919 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC THU JUL 07 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0915 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A 1006 MB SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 14N101W. THE LOW IS EMBEDDED IN THE BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW PROVIDED BY THE MONSOON TROUGH. WINDS N OF THE LOW ARE CURRENTLY 20 TO 25 KT OVER THE NE PART OF THE LOW...AND 20 TO 25 KT IN SW MONSOONAL FLOW S OF THE LOW. OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION HAS ERUPTED WITHIN 180 NM OF THE LOW MAINLY IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. THE LOW IS CURRENTLY EMBEDDED IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR WHICH HAS DISPLACED THE CONVECTION TO THE WEST OF THE CENTER. CIMSS SHEAR ANALYSIS INDICATE 20-25 KT OF SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM. THIS SHEAR IS FORECAST TO DECREASE AS THE LOW MOVES INTO AN AREA WHERE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SHOULD TO BE FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT WITH A HIGH CHANCE OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... MONSOON TROUGH AXIS FROM 09N85W TO 12N90W THROUGH 1006 MB LOW NEAR 14N101W TO 08N114W THEN ITCZ THROUGH 08N125W TO BEYOND 06N140W. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 90-120 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 87W AND 93W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 90 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 130W AND 134W. ...DISCUSSION... LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ANCHORED BY A SPRAWLING ANTICYCLONE NEAR 29N140W DOMINATED MOST OF THE SUBTROPICAL E PACIFIC N OF 16N AND EXTENDED NE ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA INTO THE SW CONUS. AN UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXIS WAS LOCATED TO THE S OF THE ANTICYLONE GENERALLY IN THE TROPICS FROM 05N TO 15N W OF 110W. FURTHER E...ANOTHER ANTICYLONE SITUATED JUST TO THE NW OF THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC GOVERNED THE FLOW OVER THE TROPICAL PACIFIC E OF 110W WITH DIFFLUENT MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT FROM 05N TO 15N BETWEEN 95W AND 110W. THE SURFACE LOW IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE WAS CURRENTLY SITUATED IN THIS ENVIRONMENT. AT THE SURFACE...A 1029 MB HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED NW OF THE AREA NEAR 37N143W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS HIGH PRESSURE AND THE MONSOON TROUGH IS SUPPORTING FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS OVER THE AREA NW OF A LINE FROM 30N130W TO 22N140W AS CAPTURED BY THE 0550 UTC ASCAT PASS. THESE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO EDGE SLOWLY WESTWARD OVER THE NW PART OF THE AREA THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS. CROSS-EQUATORIAL MIXED SE AND SW SWELLS HAVE MOVED INTO S CENTRAL WATERS WHERE THEY ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN S OF 10N THROUGH FRI. SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS WILL REACH AS HIGH AS 11 FT AS THE SWELLS CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE INTO THE AREA. $$ COBB 000 AXPZ20 KNHC 070919 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC THU JUL 07 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0915 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A 1006 MB SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 14N101W. THE LOW IS EMBEDDED IN THE BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW PROVIDED BY THE MONSOON TROUGH. WINDS N OF THE LOW ARE CURRENTLY 20 TO 25 KT OVER THE NE PART OF THE LOW...AND 20 TO 25 KT IN SW MONSOONAL FLOW S OF THE LOW. OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION HAS ERUPTED WITHIN 180 NM OF THE LOW MAINLY IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. THE LOW IS CURRENTLY EMBEDDED IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR WHICH HAS DISPLACED THE CONVECTION TO THE WEST OF THE CENTER. CIMSS SHEAR ANALYSIS INDICATE 20-25 KT OF SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM. THIS SHEAR IS FORECAST TO DECREASE AS THE LOW MOVES INTO AN AREA WHERE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SHOULD TO BE FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT WITH A HIGH CHANCE OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... MONSOON TROUGH AXIS FROM 09N85W TO 12N90W THROUGH 1006 MB LOW NEAR 14N101W TO 08N114W THEN ITCZ THROUGH 08N125W TO BEYOND 06N140W. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 90-120 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 87W AND 93W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 90 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 130W AND 134W. ...DISCUSSION... LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ANCHORED BY A SPRAWLING ANTICYCLONE NEAR 29N140W DOMINATED MOST OF THE SUBTROPICAL E PACIFIC N OF 16N AND EXTENDED NE ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA INTO THE SW CONUS. AN UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXIS WAS LOCATED TO THE S OF THE ANTICYLONE GENERALLY IN THE TROPICS FROM 05N TO 15N W OF 110W. FURTHER E...ANOTHER ANTICYLONE SITUATED JUST TO THE NW OF THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC GOVERNED THE FLOW OVER THE TROPICAL PACIFIC E OF 110W WITH DIFFLUENT MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT FROM 05N TO 15N BETWEEN 95W AND 110W. THE SURFACE LOW IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE WAS CURRENTLY SITUATED IN THIS ENVIRONMENT. AT THE SURFACE...A 1029 MB HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED NW OF THE AREA NEAR 37N143W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS HIGH PRESSURE AND THE MONSOON TROUGH IS SUPPORTING FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS OVER THE AREA NW OF A LINE FROM 30N130W TO 22N140W AS CAPTURED BY THE 0550 UTC ASCAT PASS. THESE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO EDGE SLOWLY WESTWARD OVER THE NW PART OF THE AREA THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS. CROSS-EQUATORIAL MIXED SE AND SW SWELLS HAVE MOVED INTO S CENTRAL WATERS WHERE THEY ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN S OF 10N THROUGH FRI. SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS WILL REACH AS HIGH AS 11 FT AS THE SWELLS CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE INTO THE AREA. $$ COBB