000 AXPZ20 KNHC 070348 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC THU JUL 07 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0245 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A 1006 MB SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 13N99W. THE LOW FORMED AS A RESULT OF AN INTERACTION OF A TROPICAL WAVE WITH TOPOGRAPHY OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE MONSOON TROUGH. THE SURFACE LOW IS EMBEDDED IN THE BROAD CYCLONIC POUCH PROVIDED BY THE MONSOON TROUGH. WINDS N OF THE LOW ARE CURRENTLY 20 TO 25 KT OVER THE NE PART OF THE LOW...AND 20 TO 25 KT SW MONSOONAL FLOW S OF THE LOW. SCATTERED/NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY N OF 10N BETWEEN 98W AND 104W. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT WITH A HIGH CHANCE OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS ALONG 09N84W TO 09N86W TO 13N96W THROUGH 1006 MB LOW NEAR 13N99W TO 08N114W THEN ITCZ TO BEYOND 05N140W. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION N OF 10N BETWEEN 98W AND 104W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 124W AND 135W. ...DISCUSSION... A 1030 MB HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED NW OF THE AREA NEAR 37N143W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS HIGH PRESSURE AND THE MONSOON TROUGH IS SUPPORTING FRESH TO STRONG WINDS OVER THE NW PART OF THE AREA AS CAPTURED IN THE LATEST WINDSAT PASS. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OVER THE NW PART OF THE AREA THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. CROSS-EQUATORIAL MIXED SE AND SW SWELLS HAVE MOVED INTO S CENTRAL WATERS WHERE THEY ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN S OF 10N THROUGH FRI. SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS WILL REACH AS HIGH AS 11 FT AS THE SWELLS CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE INTO THE AREA. $$ AL 000 AXPZ20 KNHC 070348 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC THU JUL 07 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0245 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A 1006 MB SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 13N99W. THE LOW FORMED AS A RESULT OF AN INTERACTION OF A TROPICAL WAVE WITH TOPOGRAPHY OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE MONSOON TROUGH. THE SURFACE LOW IS EMBEDDED IN THE BROAD CYCLONIC POUCH PROVIDED BY THE MONSOON TROUGH. WINDS N OF THE LOW ARE CURRENTLY 20 TO 25 KT OVER THE NE PART OF THE LOW...AND 20 TO 25 KT SW MONSOONAL FLOW S OF THE LOW. SCATTERED/NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY N OF 10N BETWEEN 98W AND 104W. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT WITH A HIGH CHANCE OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS ALONG 09N84W TO 09N86W TO 13N96W THROUGH 1006 MB LOW NEAR 13N99W TO 08N114W THEN ITCZ TO BEYOND 05N140W. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION N OF 10N BETWEEN 98W AND 104W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 124W AND 135W. ...DISCUSSION... A 1030 MB HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED NW OF THE AREA NEAR 37N143W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS HIGH PRESSURE AND THE MONSOON TROUGH IS SUPPORTING FRESH TO STRONG WINDS OVER THE NW PART OF THE AREA AS CAPTURED IN THE LATEST WINDSAT PASS. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OVER THE NW PART OF THE AREA THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. CROSS-EQUATORIAL MIXED SE AND SW SWELLS HAVE MOVED INTO S CENTRAL WATERS WHERE THEY ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN S OF 10N THROUGH FRI. SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS WILL REACH AS HIGH AS 11 FT AS THE SWELLS CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE INTO THE AREA. $$ AL