000 AXPZ20 KNHC 062126 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC WED JUL 06 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A 1006 MB SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 13N97W. THE LOW FORMED AS A RESULT OF AN INTERACTION OF A TROPICAL WAVE WITH TOPOGRAPHY OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE MONSOON TROUGH. THE SURFACE LOW IS EMBEDDED IN THE BROAD CYCLONIC POUCH PROVIDED BY THE MONSOON TROUGH. WINDS N OF THE LOW ARE CURRENTLY 20 TO 25 KT OVER THE NE PART OF THE LOW...AND 20 TO 25 KT SW MONSOONAL FLOW S OF THE LOW. SCATTERED/NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY N OF 09N BETWEEN 97W AND 102W. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT WITH A HIGH CHANCE OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS ALONG 10N86W THROUGH 1006 MB LOW NEAR 13N97W TO 10N112W THEN ITCZ TO 08N120W TO BEYOND 05N140W. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG N OF 09N BETWEEN 97W AND 102W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 60 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 124W AND 135W. ...DISCUSSION... A 1029 MB HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED NW OF THE AREA NEAR 37N143W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS HIGH PRESSURE AND THE MONSOON TROUGH IS SUPPORTING FRESH TO STRONG WINDS OVER THE NW PART OF THE AREA AS CAPTURED IN THE LATEST WINDSAT PASS. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OVER THE NW PART OF THE AREA THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. CROSS-EQUATORIAL MIXED SE AND SW SWELLS HAVE MOVED INTO S CENTRAL WATERS WHERE THEY ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN S OF 10N THROUGH FRI. SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS WILL REACH AS HIGH AS 11 FT AS THE SWELLS CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE INTO THE AREA. $$ AL 000 AXPZ20 KNHC 062126 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC WED JUL 06 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A 1006 MB SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 13N97W. THE LOW FORMED AS A RESULT OF AN INTERACTION OF A TROPICAL WAVE WITH TOPOGRAPHY OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE MONSOON TROUGH. THE SURFACE LOW IS EMBEDDED IN THE BROAD CYCLONIC POUCH PROVIDED BY THE MONSOON TROUGH. WINDS N OF THE LOW ARE CURRENTLY 20 TO 25 KT OVER THE NE PART OF THE LOW...AND 20 TO 25 KT SW MONSOONAL FLOW S OF THE LOW. SCATTERED/NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY N OF 09N BETWEEN 97W AND 102W. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT WITH A HIGH CHANCE OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS ALONG 10N86W THROUGH 1006 MB LOW NEAR 13N97W TO 10N112W THEN ITCZ TO 08N120W TO BEYOND 05N140W. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG N OF 09N BETWEEN 97W AND 102W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 60 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 124W AND 135W. ...DISCUSSION... A 1029 MB HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED NW OF THE AREA NEAR 37N143W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS HIGH PRESSURE AND THE MONSOON TROUGH IS SUPPORTING FRESH TO STRONG WINDS OVER THE NW PART OF THE AREA AS CAPTURED IN THE LATEST WINDSAT PASS. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OVER THE NW PART OF THE AREA THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. CROSS-EQUATORIAL MIXED SE AND SW SWELLS HAVE MOVED INTO S CENTRAL WATERS WHERE THEY ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN S OF 10N THROUGH FRI. SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS WILL REACH AS HIGH AS 11 FT AS THE SWELLS CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE INTO THE AREA. $$ AL