000 AXPZ20 KNHC 061541 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC WED JUL 06 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1445 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A 1006 MB SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 13N97W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 15N95W THROUGH THE LOW TO 11N99W. THIS SURFACE LOW IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH AND COUPLED WITH THE WINDS FUNNELING THROUGH THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ARE GENERATING 20 KT WINDS TO THE NW AND SE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. SCATTERED/NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS TO THE COAST OF MEXICO BETWEEN 97W AND 102W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH N OF 11N. THIS SYSTEM IS BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT WITH A MEDIUM CHANCE OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 9 KT. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS ALONG 10N85W THROUGH 1006 MB LOW NEAR 13N97W TO 10N106W TO 08N118W. THEN ITCZ AXIS CONTINUES FROM 08N118W TO BEYOND 05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 04N TO 09N E OF 82W TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA INCLUDING THE GULF PANAMA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 05N TO 08N BETWEEN 82W AND 87W AND WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE FROM 11N93W TO 8N108W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150-180 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 125W AND 136W. ...DISCUSSION... LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW DOMINATES MOST OF THE SUBTROPICAL E PACIFIC N OF 13N WITH THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATING DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT. A SECOND UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ANCHORED OVER THE DESERT SW COVERS NW MEXICO AND THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. FURTHER E...A THIRD ANTICYLONE ANCHORED NEAR THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC GOVERNS THE FLOW OVER THE TROPICAL PACIFIC E OF 110W WITH DIFFLUENT E FLOW ALOFT FROM 6N TO 12N BETWEEN 93W AND 110W. AT THE SURFACE...A 1028 MB SUBTROPICAL HIGH WAS ANALYZED NW OF THE AREA NEAR 37N141W. THE HIGH IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AS IT MERGES WITH ANOTHER HIGH PRES SYSTEM TO ITS NW BY THU. AS A RESULT NE WINDS OF 20 KT OVER THE NE PORTION OF THE AREA WILL INCREASE TO 20-25 KT BY TONIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH THU NIGHT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 11 FT OVER THE FAR NW PORTIONS OF THE AREA. NE WINDS AHEAD OF A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE E GULF OF MEXICO TO OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ARE FUNNELING THROUGH THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. THESE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO MOVE WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS IN TANDEM WITH A SURFACE LOW/TROUGH IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES. CROSS-EQUATORIAL MIXED SE AND SW SWELLS FROM THE SOUTH PACIFIC HAVE MOVED INTO S CENTRAL WATERS WHERE THEY ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN S OF 10N THROUGH THU. SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS WILL REACH AS HIGH AS 11 FT ALONG THE EQUATOR AS THE SWELLS CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE INTO THE AREA. $$ PAW 000 AXPZ20 KNHC 061541 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC WED JUL 06 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1445 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A 1006 MB SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 13N97W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 15N95W THROUGH THE LOW TO 11N99W. THIS SURFACE LOW IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH AND COUPLED WITH THE WINDS FUNNELING THROUGH THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ARE GENERATING 20 KT WINDS TO THE NW AND SE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. SCATTERED/NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS TO THE COAST OF MEXICO BETWEEN 97W AND 102W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH N OF 11N. THIS SYSTEM IS BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT WITH A MEDIUM CHANCE OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 9 KT. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS ALONG 10N85W THROUGH 1006 MB LOW NEAR 13N97W TO 10N106W TO 08N118W. THEN ITCZ AXIS CONTINUES FROM 08N118W TO BEYOND 05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 04N TO 09N E OF 82W TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA INCLUDING THE GULF PANAMA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 05N TO 08N BETWEEN 82W AND 87W AND WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE FROM 11N93W TO 8N108W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150-180 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 125W AND 136W. ...DISCUSSION... LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW DOMINATES MOST OF THE SUBTROPICAL E PACIFIC N OF 13N WITH THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATING DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT. A SECOND UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ANCHORED OVER THE DESERT SW COVERS NW MEXICO AND THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. FURTHER E...A THIRD ANTICYLONE ANCHORED NEAR THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC GOVERNS THE FLOW OVER THE TROPICAL PACIFIC E OF 110W WITH DIFFLUENT E FLOW ALOFT FROM 6N TO 12N BETWEEN 93W AND 110W. AT THE SURFACE...A 1028 MB SUBTROPICAL HIGH WAS ANALYZED NW OF THE AREA NEAR 37N141W. THE HIGH IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AS IT MERGES WITH ANOTHER HIGH PRES SYSTEM TO ITS NW BY THU. AS A RESULT NE WINDS OF 20 KT OVER THE NE PORTION OF THE AREA WILL INCREASE TO 20-25 KT BY TONIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH THU NIGHT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 11 FT OVER THE FAR NW PORTIONS OF THE AREA. NE WINDS AHEAD OF A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE E GULF OF MEXICO TO OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ARE FUNNELING THROUGH THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. THESE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO MOVE WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS IN TANDEM WITH A SURFACE LOW/TROUGH IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES. CROSS-EQUATORIAL MIXED SE AND SW SWELLS FROM THE SOUTH PACIFIC HAVE MOVED INTO S CENTRAL WATERS WHERE THEY ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN S OF 10N THROUGH THU. SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS WILL REACH AS HIGH AS 11 FT ALONG THE EQUATOR AS THE SWELLS CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE INTO THE AREA. $$ PAW