000 AXPZ20 KNHC 060928 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC WED JUL 06 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0915 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... MONSOON TROUGH AXIS FROM 10N86W TO 12N92W TO 14N104W TO 09N120W. THEN ITCZ AXIS FROM 09N120W TO BEYOND 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 120 NM OF THE COAST OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE FROM 07N TO 11N BETWEEN 92W AND 108W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 60-90 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 115W AND 132W. ...DISCUSSION... LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW DOMINATED MOST OF THE SUBTROPICAL E PACIFIC N OF 16N AND EXTENDED NE ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA INTO THE SW CONUS. AN UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXIS WAS LOCATED TO THE S OF THE ANTICYLONE GENERALLY IN THE TROPICS FROM 05N TO 15N W OF 110W. FURTHER E...ANOTHER ANTICYLONE SITUATED JUST TO THE W OF THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC GOVERNED THE FLOW OVER THE TROPICAL PACIFIC E OF 110W WITH DIFFLUENT NE FLOW ALOFT S OF 12N W OF 95W. AT THE SURFACE...A 1028 MB SUBTROPICAL HIGH WAS ANALYZED N OF THE AREA NEAR 37N141W. THE HIGH IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AS IT MERGES WITH ANOTHER HIGH PRES SYSTEM TO ITS NW BY THU. AS A RESULT NE WINDS OF 20 KT OVER THE NE PORTION OF THE AREA WILL INCREASE TO 20-25 KT BY TONIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH THU NIGHT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 11 FT OVER THE FAR NW PORTIONS OF THE AREA. NE WINDS OF 20 KT AHEAD OF A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE NW CARIBBEAN ARE FUNNELING THROUGH THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. THESE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO MOVE WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS IN TANDEM WITH A SURFACE TROUGH WHICH CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM 15N96W TO 10N100W. CURRENTLY SCATTERED SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OCCURRING WITHIN 150 NM W OF THE TROUGH FROM 12N TO 15N. MOST OF THE RELIABLE GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE NOW INDICATES THIS TROUGH SHOULD DEVELOP INTO A SURFACE LOW WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH BY 48 HOURS...IF NOT SOONER. THERE IS A MODERATE PROBABILITY OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE BY 48 HOURS AS WELL. CROSS-EQUATORIAL SE SWELLS FROM THE SOUTH PACIFIC HAVE MOVED INTO S CENTRAL WATERS WHERE THEY ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN S OF 10N THROUGH THU. SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS WILL REACH AS HIGH AS 11 FT ALONG THE EQUATOR AS THE SWELLS CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE INTO THE AREA. $$ COBB 000 AXPZ20 KNHC 060928 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC WED JUL 06 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0915 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... MONSOON TROUGH AXIS FROM 10N86W TO 12N92W TO 14N104W TO 09N120W. THEN ITCZ AXIS FROM 09N120W TO BEYOND 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 120 NM OF THE COAST OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE FROM 07N TO 11N BETWEEN 92W AND 108W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 60-90 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 115W AND 132W. ...DISCUSSION... LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW DOMINATED MOST OF THE SUBTROPICAL E PACIFIC N OF 16N AND EXTENDED NE ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA INTO THE SW CONUS. AN UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXIS WAS LOCATED TO THE S OF THE ANTICYLONE GENERALLY IN THE TROPICS FROM 05N TO 15N W OF 110W. FURTHER E...ANOTHER ANTICYLONE SITUATED JUST TO THE W OF THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC GOVERNED THE FLOW OVER THE TROPICAL PACIFIC E OF 110W WITH DIFFLUENT NE FLOW ALOFT S OF 12N W OF 95W. AT THE SURFACE...A 1028 MB SUBTROPICAL HIGH WAS ANALYZED N OF THE AREA NEAR 37N141W. THE HIGH IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AS IT MERGES WITH ANOTHER HIGH PRES SYSTEM TO ITS NW BY THU. AS A RESULT NE WINDS OF 20 KT OVER THE NE PORTION OF THE AREA WILL INCREASE TO 20-25 KT BY TONIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH THU NIGHT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 11 FT OVER THE FAR NW PORTIONS OF THE AREA. NE WINDS OF 20 KT AHEAD OF A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE NW CARIBBEAN ARE FUNNELING THROUGH THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. THESE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO MOVE WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS IN TANDEM WITH A SURFACE TROUGH WHICH CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM 15N96W TO 10N100W. CURRENTLY SCATTERED SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OCCURRING WITHIN 150 NM W OF THE TROUGH FROM 12N TO 15N. MOST OF THE RELIABLE GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE NOW INDICATES THIS TROUGH SHOULD DEVELOP INTO A SURFACE LOW WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH BY 48 HOURS...IF NOT SOONER. THERE IS A MODERATE PROBABILITY OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE BY 48 HOURS AS WELL. CROSS-EQUATORIAL SE SWELLS FROM THE SOUTH PACIFIC HAVE MOVED INTO S CENTRAL WATERS WHERE THEY ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN S OF 10N THROUGH THU. SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS WILL REACH AS HIGH AS 11 FT ALONG THE EQUATOR AS THE SWELLS CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE INTO THE AREA. $$ COBB