000 AXPZ20 KNHC 051528 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC TUE JUL 05 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1330 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... MONSOON TROUGH AXIS LIES FROM 12N87W TO 15N105W TO 10N110W TO 09N120W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 09N120W TO BEYOND 05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION LIES N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 90W AND 98W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION LIES FROM 90 NM TO 240 NM S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 97W AND 102W. ...DISCUSSION... THE 1025 MB SUBTROPICAL HIGH WAS ANALYZED N OF THE AREA NEAR 36N140W. A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT LIES TO ITS NW. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND THE HIGH IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AS IT MERGES WITH ANOTHER HIGH PRES SYSTEM TO ITS NW BEHIND BY WED NIGHT. THE 0450 AND 0630 UTC ASCAT PASSES SHOW FRESH NE WINDS LIE OVER THE NW CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA N OF 25N W OF 123W. THIS AREA OF FRESH WINDS IS FORECAST TO SHIFT SLIGHTLY W BY WED MORNING AND THEN STRENGTHEN BY THU MORNING IN RESPONSE TO THE STRENGTHENING SUBTROPICAL HIGH. WIDESPREAD SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION LIES N OF 02N E OF 85W. THIS CONVECTION IS BEING FED BY AMPLE MOISTURE IN THE MID TO LOW-LEVELS AND ENHANCED BY BROAD UPPER DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN NE WINDS ALOFT S OF 06N AND MORE EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT N OF 06N AROUND THE S SIDE OF A WEAK ANTICYCLONE NEAR 14N90W. NE WINDS AHEAD OF A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE NW CARIBBEAN ARE FUNNELING THROUGH THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC INTO THE PACIFIC. STRONG N-NE GAP WINDS THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHAUNTEPEC WERE CAPTURED BY THE 0306 UTC ASCAT PASS. THESE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST INTO WED AND DIMINISH TO FRESH BY THU MORNING AS THE TROPICAL WAVE MOVES W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED THIS MORNING IN THE EASTERN GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC N OF MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 90W AND 98W UNDER A WEAK UPPER RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED ANTICYCLONE NEAR 14N90W THROUGH ANOTHER ANTICYCLONE NEAR 17N102W AND TO 20N110W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ALSO LIES ON THE N EDGE OF THIS RIDGE ALONG THE CENTRAL MEXICAN COAST FROM 18N TO 22N E OF 108W. THE 0304 UTC ASCAT PASS OBSERVED FRESH S-SW WINDS S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 90W AND 95W AND SHIP DQXQ REPORTED 20 KT WINDS HERE AT 0600 UTC. THIS AREA OF FRESH WINDS IS FORECAST TO PROPAGATE W ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH THROUGH THU MORNING. A LOW PRES SYSTEM COULD FORM ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN THIS FRESH SW FLOW AND THE NE WINDS S OF TEHUANTEPEC OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. CROSS-EQUATORIAL SE SWELLS FROM HAVE MOVED INTO S CENTRAL WATERS WHERE THEY ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN S OF 10N THROUGH THU MORNING. SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS WILL REACH AS HIGH AS 9 FT BY WED MORNING AS SW SWELL ALSO PROPAGATES INTO THE AREA. $$ SCHAUER 000 AXPZ20 KNHC 051528 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC TUE JUL 05 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1330 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... MONSOON TROUGH AXIS LIES FROM 12N87W TO 15N105W TO 10N110W TO 09N120W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 09N120W TO BEYOND 05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION LIES N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 90W AND 98W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION LIES FROM 90 NM TO 240 NM S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 97W AND 102W. ...DISCUSSION... THE 1025 MB SUBTROPICAL HIGH WAS ANALYZED N OF THE AREA NEAR 36N140W. A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT LIES TO ITS NW. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND THE HIGH IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AS IT MERGES WITH ANOTHER HIGH PRES SYSTEM TO ITS NW BEHIND BY WED NIGHT. THE 0450 AND 0630 UTC ASCAT PASSES SHOW FRESH NE WINDS LIE OVER THE NW CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA N OF 25N W OF 123W. THIS AREA OF FRESH WINDS IS FORECAST TO SHIFT SLIGHTLY W BY WED MORNING AND THEN STRENGTHEN BY THU MORNING IN RESPONSE TO THE STRENGTHENING SUBTROPICAL HIGH. WIDESPREAD SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION LIES N OF 02N E OF 85W. THIS CONVECTION IS BEING FED BY AMPLE MOISTURE IN THE MID TO LOW-LEVELS AND ENHANCED BY BROAD UPPER DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN NE WINDS ALOFT S OF 06N AND MORE EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT N OF 06N AROUND THE S SIDE OF A WEAK ANTICYCLONE NEAR 14N90W. NE WINDS AHEAD OF A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE NW CARIBBEAN ARE FUNNELING THROUGH THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC INTO THE PACIFIC. STRONG N-NE GAP WINDS THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHAUNTEPEC WERE CAPTURED BY THE 0306 UTC ASCAT PASS. THESE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST INTO WED AND DIMINISH TO FRESH BY THU MORNING AS THE TROPICAL WAVE MOVES W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED THIS MORNING IN THE EASTERN GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC N OF MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 90W AND 98W UNDER A WEAK UPPER RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED ANTICYCLONE NEAR 14N90W THROUGH ANOTHER ANTICYCLONE NEAR 17N102W AND TO 20N110W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ALSO LIES ON THE N EDGE OF THIS RIDGE ALONG THE CENTRAL MEXICAN COAST FROM 18N TO 22N E OF 108W. THE 0304 UTC ASCAT PASS OBSERVED FRESH S-SW WINDS S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 90W AND 95W AND SHIP DQXQ REPORTED 20 KT WINDS HERE AT 0600 UTC. THIS AREA OF FRESH WINDS IS FORECAST TO PROPAGATE W ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH THROUGH THU MORNING. A LOW PRES SYSTEM COULD FORM ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN THIS FRESH SW FLOW AND THE NE WINDS S OF TEHUANTEPEC OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. CROSS-EQUATORIAL SE SWELLS FROM HAVE MOVED INTO S CENTRAL WATERS WHERE THEY ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN S OF 10N THROUGH THU MORNING. SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS WILL REACH AS HIGH AS 9 FT BY WED MORNING AS SW SWELL ALSO PROPAGATES INTO THE AREA. $$ SCHAUER