000 AXPZ20 KNHC 050905 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC TUE JUL 05 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0900 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... MONSOON TROUGH AXIS FROM 12N87W TO 14N102W TO 08N120W TO 07N130W THEN ITCZ TO BEYOND 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 180 TO 240 NM S OF AXIS E OF 112W. ...DISCUSSION... IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A PAIR OF UPPER LEVEL HIGHS ARE CENTERED W OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AT 26N129W AND 21N139W WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE TROPICS NEAR 12N120W WITH SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE. UPPER AIR DIFFLUENCE E OF THIS LOW IS ENHANCING CONVECTION N OF 04N BETWEEN 100W AND 115W. MODERATE UPPER LEVEL NE FLOW IS ALSO OVER CENTRAL AMERICA E OF 100W. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS ABUNDANT MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE N OF THE EQUATOR E OF 110W TO INCLUDE MOST OF MEXICO...CENTRAL AMERICA...AND THE E PACIFIC. AT THE SURFACE....A 1026 MB HIGH OVER THE PACIFIC AT 36N140W COMBINED WITH A THERMAL TROUGH OVER SW U.S. IS PRODUCING STRONG N-NW WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA. N SWELL FROM THESE WINDS IS PROPAGATING SOUTH OF 30N BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE AREA OF 20 KT WINDS IS FORECAST TO MOVE SW AND REMAIN N OF 25N OVER THE NEXT 28 HOURS. MONSOON TROUGH REMAINS FAIRLY ACTIVE WITH CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION E OF 110W. FAVORABLE CONDITIONS ALOFT MAY INDUCE WEAK TROPICAL LOWS TO FORM WITHIN THE TROUGH. GFS AND EUROPEAN MODELS HINT AT ONE OR TWO WEAK CIRCULATION DEVELOPING OVER THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS. SURFACE TROUGH...REMNANTS OF ARLENE...IS LOCATED SW OF THE TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA ALONG 118W WITH NO CONVECTION. 20 KT N TO NE WINDS ARE FORECAST OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THIS MORNING AND WILL INCREASE TO 20-25 KT TOMORROW MORNING WITH SEAS TO 8 FT. $$ FORMOSA 000 AXPZ20 KNHC 050905 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC TUE JUL 05 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0900 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... MONSOON TROUGH AXIS FROM 12N87W TO 14N102W TO 08N120W TO 07N130W THEN ITCZ TO BEYOND 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 180 TO 240 NM S OF AXIS E OF 112W. ...DISCUSSION... IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A PAIR OF UPPER LEVEL HIGHS ARE CENTERED W OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AT 26N129W AND 21N139W WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE TROPICS NEAR 12N120W WITH SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE. UPPER AIR DIFFLUENCE E OF THIS LOW IS ENHANCING CONVECTION N OF 04N BETWEEN 100W AND 115W. MODERATE UPPER LEVEL NE FLOW IS ALSO OVER CENTRAL AMERICA E OF 100W. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS ABUNDANT MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE N OF THE EQUATOR E OF 110W TO INCLUDE MOST OF MEXICO...CENTRAL AMERICA...AND THE E PACIFIC. AT THE SURFACE....A 1026 MB HIGH OVER THE PACIFIC AT 36N140W COMBINED WITH A THERMAL TROUGH OVER SW U.S. IS PRODUCING STRONG N-NW WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA. N SWELL FROM THESE WINDS IS PROPAGATING SOUTH OF 30N BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE AREA OF 20 KT WINDS IS FORECAST TO MOVE SW AND REMAIN N OF 25N OVER THE NEXT 28 HOURS. MONSOON TROUGH REMAINS FAIRLY ACTIVE WITH CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION E OF 110W. FAVORABLE CONDITIONS ALOFT MAY INDUCE WEAK TROPICAL LOWS TO FORM WITHIN THE TROUGH. GFS AND EUROPEAN MODELS HINT AT ONE OR TWO WEAK CIRCULATION DEVELOPING OVER THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS. SURFACE TROUGH...REMNANTS OF ARLENE...IS LOCATED SW OF THE TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA ALONG 118W WITH NO CONVECTION. 20 KT N TO NE WINDS ARE FORECAST OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THIS MORNING AND WILL INCREASE TO 20-25 KT TOMORROW MORNING WITH SEAS TO 8 FT. $$ FORMOSA