000 AXPZ20 KNHC 050304 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC TUE JUL 5 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0300 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... MONSOON TROUGH AXIS FROM 12N87W TO 16N103W TO 12N108W TO 08N130W THEN ITCZ TO 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 180 TO 240 NM S OF AXIS E OF 111W. ...DISCUSSION... UPPER ANTICYCLONE W OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NEAR 24N124W MAINTAINS DRIER LOW LEVEL ABOVE THE STRATOCUMULUS LAYER WITH MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE. CUT-OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 24N89W EXTENDS A WEAK TROUGH ACROSS SRN MEXICO TO 16N98W TO AN UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR 10N119W. ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE IS FOUND ALONG MONSOON TROUGH E OF 110W AND SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE CONDITIONS ALOFT MAY INDUCE WEAK TROPICAL LOWS TO FORM WITHIN THE TROUGH. GFS AND EUROPEAN MODELS ONLY HINT AT ONE OR TWO WEAK CIRCULATION DEVELOPING OVER THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS. AN APPROACHING TROPICAL WAVE FROM WRN CARIBBEAN PROBABLY THE ONLY POTENTIAL TRIGGER SOURCE FOR CYCLOGENESIS AT THIS POINT. STATIONARY HIGH PRES CENTERED NEAR 35N139W AND A THERMAL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL VALLEY IS INDUCING 25-30 KT N-NW WINDS W OF CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST. FRESH N TO NE WINDS EXTEND PAST 30N INTO THE BASIN N OF 27N W OF 122W. FRESH W-SW WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH A LESS ACTIVE MONSOON TROUGH IS GENERATING 8-9 FT SWELLS IN EQUATORIAL E PAC S OF 10N W OF 95W. $$ MUNDELL 000 AXPZ20 KNHC 050304 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC TUE JUL 5 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0300 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... MONSOON TROUGH AXIS FROM 12N87W TO 16N103W TO 12N108W TO 08N130W THEN ITCZ TO 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 180 TO 240 NM S OF AXIS E OF 111W. ...DISCUSSION... UPPER ANTICYCLONE W OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NEAR 24N124W MAINTAINS DRIER LOW LEVEL ABOVE THE STRATOCUMULUS LAYER WITH MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE. CUT-OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 24N89W EXTENDS A WEAK TROUGH ACROSS SRN MEXICO TO 16N98W TO AN UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR 10N119W. ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE IS FOUND ALONG MONSOON TROUGH E OF 110W AND SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE CONDITIONS ALOFT MAY INDUCE WEAK TROPICAL LOWS TO FORM WITHIN THE TROUGH. GFS AND EUROPEAN MODELS ONLY HINT AT ONE OR TWO WEAK CIRCULATION DEVELOPING OVER THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS. AN APPROACHING TROPICAL WAVE FROM WRN CARIBBEAN PROBABLY THE ONLY POTENTIAL TRIGGER SOURCE FOR CYCLOGENESIS AT THIS POINT. STATIONARY HIGH PRES CENTERED NEAR 35N139W AND A THERMAL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL VALLEY IS INDUCING 25-30 KT N-NW WINDS W OF CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST. FRESH N TO NE WINDS EXTEND PAST 30N INTO THE BASIN N OF 27N W OF 122W. FRESH W-SW WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH A LESS ACTIVE MONSOON TROUGH IS GENERATING 8-9 FT SWELLS IN EQUATORIAL E PAC S OF 10N W OF 95W. $$ MUNDELL