000
AXPZ20 KNHC 042146
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC MON JUL 4 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH AXIS FROM 11N86W TO 12N90W TO 11N97W TO 13N105W 
TO 06N133W THEN ITCZ TO 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION 
WITHIN 180 NM S OF AXIS E OF 115W.

...DISCUSSION...
UPPER ANTICYCLONE W OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NEAR 24N124W MAINTAINS  
DRY LOWER LEVEL ABOVE THE STRATOCUMULUS LAYER WITH MODERATE TO 
STRONG SUBSIDENCE. CUT-OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER GULF OF MEXICO 
NEAR 24N89W EXTENDS A WEAK TROUGH ACROSS SRN MEXICO TO 16N98W TO 
AN UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR 11N119W. DIVERGING FLOW ALONG W COAST 
OF CENTRAL MEXICO ENHANCING SCATTERED CONVECTION FROM 19N TO 24N.
ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE IS ALONG MONSOON TROUGH E OF 110W AND 
SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE CONDITIONS ALOFT MAY INDUCE WEAK TROPICAL LOWS
TO FORM WITHIN THE TROUGH. GFS AND EUROPEAN MODELS ONLY HINT AT 
ONE OR TWO WEAK CIRCULATION DEVELOPING OVER THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS... 
BUT AN APPROACHING TROPICAL WAVE FROM WRN CARIBBEAN MIGHT BE THE 
ONLY POTENTIAL FOR CYCLOGENESIS AT THIS POINT.  

STATIONARY HIGH PRES CENTER NEAR 35N139W AND THERMAL TROUGH OVER 
THE CENTRAL VALLEY IS PRODUCING 25-35 KT N-NW WINDS W OF CENTRAL 
CALIFORNIA COAST. FRESH N TO NE WINDS EXTEND PAST 30N INTO BASIN 
N OF 26N W OF 122W.

FRESH W-SW WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH MONSOON TROUGH GENERATING 8-9 FT
SWELLS IN EQUATORIAL E PAC S OF 10N W OF 95W.  

$$
MUNDELL



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 042146
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC MON JUL 4 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH AXIS FROM 11N86W TO 12N90W TO 11N97W TO 13N105W 
TO 06N133W THEN ITCZ TO 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION 
WITHIN 180 NM S OF AXIS E OF 115W.

...DISCUSSION...
UPPER ANTICYCLONE W OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NEAR 24N124W MAINTAINS  
DRY LOWER LEVEL ABOVE THE STRATOCUMULUS LAYER WITH MODERATE TO 
STRONG SUBSIDENCE. CUT-OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER GULF OF MEXICO 
NEAR 24N89W EXTENDS A WEAK TROUGH ACROSS SRN MEXICO TO 16N98W TO 
AN UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR 11N119W. DIVERGING FLOW ALONG W COAST 
OF CENTRAL MEXICO ENHANCING SCATTERED CONVECTION FROM 19N TO 24N.
ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE IS ALONG MONSOON TROUGH E OF 110W AND 
SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE CONDITIONS ALOFT MAY INDUCE WEAK TROPICAL LOWS
TO FORM WITHIN THE TROUGH. GFS AND EUROPEAN MODELS ONLY HINT AT 
ONE OR TWO WEAK CIRCULATION DEVELOPING OVER THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS... 
BUT AN APPROACHING TROPICAL WAVE FROM WRN CARIBBEAN MIGHT BE THE 
ONLY POTENTIAL FOR CYCLOGENESIS AT THIS POINT.  

STATIONARY HIGH PRES CENTER NEAR 35N139W AND THERMAL TROUGH OVER 
THE CENTRAL VALLEY IS PRODUCING 25-35 KT N-NW WINDS W OF CENTRAL 
CALIFORNIA COAST. FRESH N TO NE WINDS EXTEND PAST 30N INTO BASIN 
N OF 26N W OF 122W.

FRESH W-SW WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH MONSOON TROUGH GENERATING 8-9 FT
SWELLS IN EQUATORIAL E PAC S OF 10N W OF 95W.  

$$
MUNDELL