000 AXPZ20 KNHC 041547 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC MON JUL 04 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1500 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... MONSOON TROUGH AXIS FROM 11N86W TO 09N92W TO 13N104W TO 06N134W THEN ITCZ TO 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 180 NM S OF AXIS E OF 115W. ...DISCUSSION... IN THE UPPER LEVELS... UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE W OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AT 24N122W MAINTAINS AREA N OF 20N W OF 113W VERY DRY WITH MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDING AIR MASS. ONLY SCATTERED TO BROKEN STRATIFIED LOW CLOUDS NOTED IN AREA. NOT EVEN WEAKENING SURFACE TROUGH... REMNANTS OF ARLENE...IS ABLE TO RAISE ANY CONVECTION. WELL DEFINED UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC VORTEX OVER GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS TROUGH ACROSS SRN MEXICO INTO E PAC AT 16N98W TO SECOND VORTEX AT 13N118W. DIVERGING FLOW ALONG W COAST OF CENTRAL MEXICO ENHANCES SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG TSTMS EXTENDING WELL INTO GULF OF CALIFORNIA S OF 26N. PLENTY OF TROPICAL MOISTURE AROUND MONSOON TROUGH E OF 110W AND FAVORABLE CONDITIONS ALOFT JUST WAITING FOR INITIAL MECHANICAL UPLIFT TO DEVELOP MORE CONVECTION. APPROACHING TROPICAL WAVE FROM WRN CARIBBEAN MIGHT BE A CANDIDATE TO TRIGGER IT. AT THE SURFACE....STATIONARY WEAKENING HIGH PRES CENTER 1023 MB AT 35N139W PROMPTING GALE FORCE WINDS JUST OFF NRN CALIFORNIA COAST. FRESH N TO NE WINDS EXTEND FAR S ENCROACHING INTO BASIN N OF 26N W OF 122W. SURFACE TROUGH...REMNANTS OF ARLENE...ALONG 117W FROM 17N TO 23N WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION MOVES W OVER MUCH COOLER WATERS AND ADVERSE ENVIRONMENT ALOFT. NO REGENERATION OF SYSTEM EXPECTED. FRESH SW WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH MONSOON TROUGH BRINGS 8-9 FT SWELLS ACROSS EQUATOR INTO E PAC S OF 10N W OF 95W. $$ WALLY BARNES 000 AXPZ20 KNHC 041547 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC MON JUL 04 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1500 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... MONSOON TROUGH AXIS FROM 11N86W TO 09N92W TO 13N104W TO 06N134W THEN ITCZ TO 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 180 NM S OF AXIS E OF 115W. ...DISCUSSION... IN THE UPPER LEVELS... UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE W OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AT 24N122W MAINTAINS AREA N OF 20N W OF 113W VERY DRY WITH MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDING AIR MASS. ONLY SCATTERED TO BROKEN STRATIFIED LOW CLOUDS NOTED IN AREA. NOT EVEN WEAKENING SURFACE TROUGH... REMNANTS OF ARLENE...IS ABLE TO RAISE ANY CONVECTION. WELL DEFINED UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC VORTEX OVER GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS TROUGH ACROSS SRN MEXICO INTO E PAC AT 16N98W TO SECOND VORTEX AT 13N118W. DIVERGING FLOW ALONG W COAST OF CENTRAL MEXICO ENHANCES SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG TSTMS EXTENDING WELL INTO GULF OF CALIFORNIA S OF 26N. PLENTY OF TROPICAL MOISTURE AROUND MONSOON TROUGH E OF 110W AND FAVORABLE CONDITIONS ALOFT JUST WAITING FOR INITIAL MECHANICAL UPLIFT TO DEVELOP MORE CONVECTION. APPROACHING TROPICAL WAVE FROM WRN CARIBBEAN MIGHT BE A CANDIDATE TO TRIGGER IT. AT THE SURFACE....STATIONARY WEAKENING HIGH PRES CENTER 1023 MB AT 35N139W PROMPTING GALE FORCE WINDS JUST OFF NRN CALIFORNIA COAST. FRESH N TO NE WINDS EXTEND FAR S ENCROACHING INTO BASIN N OF 26N W OF 122W. SURFACE TROUGH...REMNANTS OF ARLENE...ALONG 117W FROM 17N TO 23N WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION MOVES W OVER MUCH COOLER WATERS AND ADVERSE ENVIRONMENT ALOFT. NO REGENERATION OF SYSTEM EXPECTED. FRESH SW WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH MONSOON TROUGH BRINGS 8-9 FT SWELLS ACROSS EQUATOR INTO E PAC S OF 10N W OF 95W. $$ WALLY BARNES