000 AXPZ20 KNHC 040931 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC MON JUL 04 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0900 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... MONSOON TROUGH AXIS FROM 11N86W TO 14N105W TO 07N130W. ITCZ FROM 07N130W TO BEYOND 06N140W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 03N TO 11N BETWEEN 84W AND 107W...AND FROM 06N TO 09N BETWEEN 108W AND 129W. ...DISCUSSION... IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A PAIR OF UPPER LEVEL HIGHS ARE CENTERED W OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AT 26N121W AND 21N134W WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE TROPICS NEAR 11N116W WITH SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE. UPPER AIR DIFFLUENCE E OF THIS LOW IS ENHANCING CONVECTION N OF 04N BETWEEN 90W AND 105W. MODERATE UPPER LEVEL NE FLOW IS ALSO OVER CENTRAL AMERICA E OF 90W. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS ABUNDANT MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE N OF THE EQUATOR E OF 112W TO INCLUDE MOST OF MEXICO...CENTRAL AMERICA...AND THE E PACIFIC. AT THE SURFACE....A 1024 MB HIGH OVER THE PACIFIC AT 35N140W COMBINED WITH A THERMAL TROUGH OVER SW U.S. IS PRODUCING STRONG N-NW WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. N SWELL FROM THESE WINDS IS PROPAGATING SOUTH OF 30N BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THIS PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS E-NE MON AND TUE THEN NW BY WED. THIS WILL CAUSE WINDS N OF THE AREA TO BECOME N-NE...SHIFTING THE AREA OF N SWELL W TO BETWEEN 125W AND 140W BY WED. MONSOON TROUGH REMAINS FAIRLY ACTIVE WITH CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION E OF 110W. HOWEVER VORTICITY WITHIN THE TROUGH ITSELF IS NOT BEING FOCUSED BY ANY WELL-DEFINED CYCLONIC CIRCULATIONS AT THIS POINT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE COAST OF MEXICO BETWEEN 98W AND 108W. SURFACE TROUGH...REMNANTS OF ARLENE...IS LOCATED SW OF THE TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA ALONG 114W WITH NO CONVECTION. AS THE TROUGH MOVES W OVER MUCH COOLER WATERS. $$ FORMOSA 000 AXPZ20 KNHC 040931 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC MON JUL 04 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0900 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... MONSOON TROUGH AXIS FROM 11N86W TO 14N105W TO 07N130W. ITCZ FROM 07N130W TO BEYOND 06N140W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 03N TO 11N BETWEEN 84W AND 107W...AND FROM 06N TO 09N BETWEEN 108W AND 129W. ...DISCUSSION... IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A PAIR OF UPPER LEVEL HIGHS ARE CENTERED W OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AT 26N121W AND 21N134W WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE TROPICS NEAR 11N116W WITH SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE. UPPER AIR DIFFLUENCE E OF THIS LOW IS ENHANCING CONVECTION N OF 04N BETWEEN 90W AND 105W. MODERATE UPPER LEVEL NE FLOW IS ALSO OVER CENTRAL AMERICA E OF 90W. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS ABUNDANT MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE N OF THE EQUATOR E OF 112W TO INCLUDE MOST OF MEXICO...CENTRAL AMERICA...AND THE E PACIFIC. AT THE SURFACE....A 1024 MB HIGH OVER THE PACIFIC AT 35N140W COMBINED WITH A THERMAL TROUGH OVER SW U.S. IS PRODUCING STRONG N-NW WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. N SWELL FROM THESE WINDS IS PROPAGATING SOUTH OF 30N BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THIS PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS E-NE MON AND TUE THEN NW BY WED. THIS WILL CAUSE WINDS N OF THE AREA TO BECOME N-NE...SHIFTING THE AREA OF N SWELL W TO BETWEEN 125W AND 140W BY WED. MONSOON TROUGH REMAINS FAIRLY ACTIVE WITH CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION E OF 110W. HOWEVER VORTICITY WITHIN THE TROUGH ITSELF IS NOT BEING FOCUSED BY ANY WELL-DEFINED CYCLONIC CIRCULATIONS AT THIS POINT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE COAST OF MEXICO BETWEEN 98W AND 108W. SURFACE TROUGH...REMNANTS OF ARLENE...IS LOCATED SW OF THE TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA ALONG 114W WITH NO CONVECTION. AS THE TROUGH MOVES W OVER MUCH COOLER WATERS. $$ FORMOSA