000
AXPZ20 KNHC 040304
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC MON JUL 4 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N86W TO 13N96W TO 13N104W TO 
08N131W THEN AS ITCZ TO 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION 
S OF AXIS TO 05N E OF 110W.

...DISCUSSION...
SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 33N W OF 135W IS OVERLAIN AT UPPER LEVELS 
BY A NARROW TUTT W OF 142W. SURFACE RIDGE OVER CENTRAL PACIFIC 
COMBINED WITH THERMAL TROUGH OVER SW U.S. IS PRODUCING STRONG 
N-NW WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. N SWELL FROM 
THESE STRONG WINDS IS PROPAGATING SOUTH OF 30N BETWEEN 120W AND 
130W. THIS PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT 
2-3 DAYS AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS E-NE TO AROUND 35N137W MON 
AND TUE THEN NW TO AROUND 37N142W BY WED. THIS WILL CAUSE WINDS 
N OF THE AREA TO BECOME N-NE...SHIFTING THE AREA OF N SWELL W TO 
BETWEEN 125W AND 140W BY WED.

MONSOON TROUGH REMAINS FAIRLY ACTIVE WITH SCATTERED MODERATE DEEP
CONVECTION E OF 110W. HOWEVER VORTICITY WITHIN THE TROUGH ITSELF 
IS NOT BEING FOCUSED BY ANY WELL-DEFINED CYCLONIC CIRCULATIONS AT
THIS POINT...LEADING TO A BROAD AREA OF WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW NEAR 
THE MONSOON TROUGH...BUT NO PERSISTENT CYCLONIC LOW HAS FORMED 
WITHIN THE TROUGH AXIS. 

SURFACE TROUGH...REMNANTS OF ARLENE...IS LOCATED SW OF THE TIP 
OF BAJA CALIFORNIA ALONG 114W WITH NO CONVECTION. AS THE TROUGH 
MOVES W OVER MUCH COOLER WATERS...NO REGENERATION IS EXPECTED. 

$$
MUNDELL



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 040304
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC MON JUL 4 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N86W TO 13N96W TO 13N104W TO 
08N131W THEN AS ITCZ TO 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION 
S OF AXIS TO 05N E OF 110W.

...DISCUSSION...
SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 33N W OF 135W IS OVERLAIN AT UPPER LEVELS 
BY A NARROW TUTT W OF 142W. SURFACE RIDGE OVER CENTRAL PACIFIC 
COMBINED WITH THERMAL TROUGH OVER SW U.S. IS PRODUCING STRONG 
N-NW WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. N SWELL FROM 
THESE STRONG WINDS IS PROPAGATING SOUTH OF 30N BETWEEN 120W AND 
130W. THIS PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT 
2-3 DAYS AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS E-NE TO AROUND 35N137W MON 
AND TUE THEN NW TO AROUND 37N142W BY WED. THIS WILL CAUSE WINDS 
N OF THE AREA TO BECOME N-NE...SHIFTING THE AREA OF N SWELL W TO 
BETWEEN 125W AND 140W BY WED.

MONSOON TROUGH REMAINS FAIRLY ACTIVE WITH SCATTERED MODERATE DEEP
CONVECTION E OF 110W. HOWEVER VORTICITY WITHIN THE TROUGH ITSELF 
IS NOT BEING FOCUSED BY ANY WELL-DEFINED CYCLONIC CIRCULATIONS AT
THIS POINT...LEADING TO A BROAD AREA OF WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW NEAR 
THE MONSOON TROUGH...BUT NO PERSISTENT CYCLONIC LOW HAS FORMED 
WITHIN THE TROUGH AXIS. 

SURFACE TROUGH...REMNANTS OF ARLENE...IS LOCATED SW OF THE TIP 
OF BAJA CALIFORNIA ALONG 114W WITH NO CONVECTION. AS THE TROUGH 
MOVES W OVER MUCH COOLER WATERS...NO REGENERATION IS EXPECTED. 

$$
MUNDELL