000 AXPZ20 KNHC 032130 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC SUN JUL 3 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2100 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N86W TO 13N96W TO 13N104W TO 08N131W THEN AS ITCZ TO 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION S OF AXIS TO 05N E OF 110W. ...DISCUSSION... SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 33N W OF 135W IS OVERLAIN AT UPPER LEVELS BY A NARROW TUTT W OF 142W. SURFACE RIDGE OVER CENTRAL PACIFIC COMBINED WITH THERMAL TROUGH OVER SW U.S. IS PRODUCING STRONG N-NW WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. N SWELL FROM THESE STRONG WINDS IS PROPAGATING SOUTH OF 30N BETWEEN 120W AND 130W. THIS PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS E-NE TO AROUND 35N137W MON AND TUE THEN NW TO AROUND 37N142W BY WED. THIS WILL CAUSE WINDS N OF THE AREA TO BECOME N-NE...SHIFTING THE AREA OF N SWELL W TO BETWEEN 115W AND 130W BY TUE. MONSOON TROUGH REMAINS FAIRLY ACTIVE WITH SCATTERED MODERATE DEEP CONVECTION E OF 110W. HOWEVER VORTICITY WITHIN THE TROUGH ITSELF IS NOT BEING FOCUSED BY ANY WELL-DEFINED CYCLONIC CIRCULATIONS AT THIS POINT...LEADING TO A BROAD AREA OF WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW NEAR THE MONSOON TROUGH BUT NO PERSISTENT CYCLONIC LOW HAS FORMED IN THE TROUGH AXIS. WEAK TROPICAL WAVE N OF 12N ALONG 96W HAS PERIODIC BURSTS OF CONVECTION...BUT IS ENTERING AN AREA OF ADVERSE UPPER LEVEL WINDS...AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TROPICAL ORGANIZATION. SURFACE TROUGH...REMNANTS OF ARLENE...IS LOCATED SW OF TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA WITH LITTLE CONVECTION. AS THE TROUGH MOVES W OVER SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER WATERS...NO REGENERATION IS EXPECTED. $$ MUNDELL 000 AXPZ20 KNHC 032130 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC SUN JUL 3 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2100 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N86W TO 13N96W TO 13N104W TO 08N131W THEN AS ITCZ TO 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION S OF AXIS TO 05N E OF 110W. ...DISCUSSION... SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 33N W OF 135W IS OVERLAIN AT UPPER LEVELS BY A NARROW TUTT W OF 142W. SURFACE RIDGE OVER CENTRAL PACIFIC COMBINED WITH THERMAL TROUGH OVER SW U.S. IS PRODUCING STRONG N-NW WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. N SWELL FROM THESE STRONG WINDS IS PROPAGATING SOUTH OF 30N BETWEEN 120W AND 130W. THIS PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS E-NE TO AROUND 35N137W MON AND TUE THEN NW TO AROUND 37N142W BY WED. THIS WILL CAUSE WINDS N OF THE AREA TO BECOME N-NE...SHIFTING THE AREA OF N SWELL W TO BETWEEN 115W AND 130W BY TUE. MONSOON TROUGH REMAINS FAIRLY ACTIVE WITH SCATTERED MODERATE DEEP CONVECTION E OF 110W. HOWEVER VORTICITY WITHIN THE TROUGH ITSELF IS NOT BEING FOCUSED BY ANY WELL-DEFINED CYCLONIC CIRCULATIONS AT THIS POINT...LEADING TO A BROAD AREA OF WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW NEAR THE MONSOON TROUGH BUT NO PERSISTENT CYCLONIC LOW HAS FORMED IN THE TROUGH AXIS. WEAK TROPICAL WAVE N OF 12N ALONG 96W HAS PERIODIC BURSTS OF CONVECTION...BUT IS ENTERING AN AREA OF ADVERSE UPPER LEVEL WINDS...AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TROPICAL ORGANIZATION. SURFACE TROUGH...REMNANTS OF ARLENE...IS LOCATED SW OF TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA WITH LITTLE CONVECTION. AS THE TROUGH MOVES W OVER SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER WATERS...NO REGENERATION IS EXPECTED. $$ MUNDELL