000
AXPZ20 KNHC 031548
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SUN JUL 03 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 110N85W TO 13N99W TO 07N128W THEN 
ITCZ TO 06N140W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION S OF AXIS TO 05N 
E OF 110W.

...DISCUSSION...
BROAD DUAL ANTICYCLONIC GYRES COMPLEX COVER E PAC N OF 20N W OF 
110W MAINTAIN SUBSIDING DRY AIR MASS OVER REGION.  E PERIPHERY 
OF EASTERNMOST GYRE ADVECTS ABUNDANT CONVECTIVE MOISTURE DEBRIS 
S FROM ARLENE BACK INTO DEEP TROPICS TOWARD MONSOONAL TROUGH.
SCATTERED TSTMS DOT AREA S OF MONSOONAL TROUGH TO 05N E OF 110W.

UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE AT 10N114W BRINGS MODERATE DIVERGENCE 
ALOFT INTO PICTURE BUT REMAINS TOO FAR W TO PROMOTE ANY 
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG MONSOON TROUGH. 

AT THE SURFACE...
WEAK TROPICAL WAVE N OF 14N ALONG 96W HAS BURST OF SCATTERED 
TSTMS ASSOCIATED WITH IT BUT ENTERS AREA OF ADVERSE UPPER LEVEL 
ENVIRONMENT AND NOT EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TROPICAL ORGANIZATION. 

BROAD HIGH PRES CENTER 1024 MB AT 35N144W MAINTAINS FAIR AND 
STABLE CONDITIONS OVER E PAC N OF 10N W OF 115W WITH SCATTERED 
TO BROKEN LOW STRATIFIED CLOUDS ACROSS REGION.  GALE FORCE WINDS 
JUST N OF 32W ENCROACH INTO BASIN N OF 28N WITH 8 FT SWELL 
SPREADING FURTHER S TO 26N.  FRESH N TO NE WINDS HOLD THROUGH 
FORECAST PERIOD.  CROSS-EQUATORIAL MODERATE S BREEZE S OF 10N 
BRINGS 9 FT SWELL W OF 98W TO 140W. 

SURFACE TROUGH...REMNANTS OF ARLENE...JUST S OF TIP OF BAJA 
CALIFORNIA.  AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS LINGERS AS TROUGH MOVES W 
OVER SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER WATERS.  NO REGENERATION OF SYSTEM IS 
EXPECTED AS ENVIRONMENT AT LOW AND UPPER LEVELS REMAIN ADVERSE. 

$$
WALLY BARNES



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 031548
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SUN JUL 03 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 110N85W TO 13N99W TO 07N128W THEN 
ITCZ TO 06N140W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION S OF AXIS TO 05N 
E OF 110W.

...DISCUSSION...
BROAD DUAL ANTICYCLONIC GYRES COMPLEX COVER E PAC N OF 20N W OF 
110W MAINTAIN SUBSIDING DRY AIR MASS OVER REGION.  E PERIPHERY 
OF EASTERNMOST GYRE ADVECTS ABUNDANT CONVECTIVE MOISTURE DEBRIS 
S FROM ARLENE BACK INTO DEEP TROPICS TOWARD MONSOONAL TROUGH.
SCATTERED TSTMS DOT AREA S OF MONSOONAL TROUGH TO 05N E OF 110W.

UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE AT 10N114W BRINGS MODERATE DIVERGENCE 
ALOFT INTO PICTURE BUT REMAINS TOO FAR W TO PROMOTE ANY 
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG MONSOON TROUGH. 

AT THE SURFACE...
WEAK TROPICAL WAVE N OF 14N ALONG 96W HAS BURST OF SCATTERED 
TSTMS ASSOCIATED WITH IT BUT ENTERS AREA OF ADVERSE UPPER LEVEL 
ENVIRONMENT AND NOT EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TROPICAL ORGANIZATION. 

BROAD HIGH PRES CENTER 1024 MB AT 35N144W MAINTAINS FAIR AND 
STABLE CONDITIONS OVER E PAC N OF 10N W OF 115W WITH SCATTERED 
TO BROKEN LOW STRATIFIED CLOUDS ACROSS REGION.  GALE FORCE WINDS 
JUST N OF 32W ENCROACH INTO BASIN N OF 28N WITH 8 FT SWELL 
SPREADING FURTHER S TO 26N.  FRESH N TO NE WINDS HOLD THROUGH 
FORECAST PERIOD.  CROSS-EQUATORIAL MODERATE S BREEZE S OF 10N 
BRINGS 9 FT SWELL W OF 98W TO 140W. 

SURFACE TROUGH...REMNANTS OF ARLENE...JUST S OF TIP OF BAJA 
CALIFORNIA.  AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS LINGERS AS TROUGH MOVES W 
OVER SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER WATERS.  NO REGENERATION OF SYSTEM IS 
EXPECTED AS ENVIRONMENT AT LOW AND UPPER LEVELS REMAIN ADVERSE. 

$$
WALLY BARNES