000 AXPZ20 KNHC 030232 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC SUN JUL 03 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0230 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N85W TO 14N95W TO 15N103W TO 20N110W TO 14N115W TO 08N135W. AXIS OF ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 08N135W TO 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 60 NM OF OF THE COAST OF MEXICO BETWEEN 90W AND 95W INCLUDING THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. ...DISCUSSION... MID LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 30N125W SW TO ANOTHER CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 23N131W. THIS TROUGH WEAKENED WITH HEIGHT AS INDICATED BY 250 MB STREAMLINE ANALYSIS. MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SEPARATED AN ANTICYCLONIC GYRE LOCATED NEAR 20N136W AND A MORE EXTENSIVE ANTICYCLONE COMPLEX COVERING BAJA CALIFORNIA...MEXICO AND THE TROPICAL PACIFIC BETWEEN 95W AND 120W. A VAST AREA OF DEEP LAYERED SUBSIDENCE DOMINATED THE AREA W OF 120W AND N OF 20N BETWEEN 110W AND 120W. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WAS A 90-120 NM WIDE BAND OF MOSITURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ W OF 130W. MODERATE UPPER LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE ANTICYCLONE COMPLEX WAS ADVECTING ABUNDANT MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WESTWARD TO ALONG 120W. STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN THE ANTICYCLONE AND A NARROW TROUGH/SHEAR AXIS OVER YUCATAN EXTENDING SOUTHWARD TO WEST OF COSTA RICA WAS ENHANCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 04N TO 10N BETWEEN 88W AND 97W AND WITHIN 60 NM OF THE COAST OF MEXICO BETWEEN 90W AND 95W. AT THE SURFACE...BROAD HIGH PRES CENTER 1026 MB NEAR 35N150W CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN FAIR AND STABLE CONDITIONS OVER THE E PACIFIC N OF 10N W OF 110W WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW CLOUDS ACROSS REGION. PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN RIDGE AND LOWER PRESSURES OVER THE SW CONUS IS RESULTING IN GALE FORCE WINDS JUST N OF 32W ALONG COAST OF CALIFORNIA...ALLOWING MODERATE TO FRESH NW WINDS ALONG W COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA WITH SEAS TO 8 FT. WINDS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN EARLY SUN AS HIGH PRES CENTER DRIFTS N AND WEAKENS. FRESH N TO NE WINDS OF 20 KT WITH SEAS BUILDING 8-10 FT WILL MAINTAIN THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD N OF 27N BETWEEN 118W AND 132W. SURFACE TROUGH...REMNANTS OF ARLENE...IS LOCATED JUST SW OF THE TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. THE AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION NOTED EARLIER HAS DISSIPATED AS THE LOW LEVEL CENTER MOVES WESTWARD OVER SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER WATERS. $$ COBB 000 AXPZ20 KNHC 030232 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC SUN JUL 03 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0230 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N85W TO 14N95W TO 15N103W TO 20N110W TO 14N115W TO 08N135W. AXIS OF ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 08N135W TO 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 60 NM OF OF THE COAST OF MEXICO BETWEEN 90W AND 95W INCLUDING THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. ...DISCUSSION... MID LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 30N125W SW TO ANOTHER CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 23N131W. THIS TROUGH WEAKENED WITH HEIGHT AS INDICATED BY 250 MB STREAMLINE ANALYSIS. MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SEPARATED AN ANTICYCLONIC GYRE LOCATED NEAR 20N136W AND A MORE EXTENSIVE ANTICYCLONE COMPLEX COVERING BAJA CALIFORNIA...MEXICO AND THE TROPICAL PACIFIC BETWEEN 95W AND 120W. A VAST AREA OF DEEP LAYERED SUBSIDENCE DOMINATED THE AREA W OF 120W AND N OF 20N BETWEEN 110W AND 120W. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WAS A 90-120 NM WIDE BAND OF MOSITURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ W OF 130W. MODERATE UPPER LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE ANTICYCLONE COMPLEX WAS ADVECTING ABUNDANT MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WESTWARD TO ALONG 120W. STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN THE ANTICYCLONE AND A NARROW TROUGH/SHEAR AXIS OVER YUCATAN EXTENDING SOUTHWARD TO WEST OF COSTA RICA WAS ENHANCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 04N TO 10N BETWEEN 88W AND 97W AND WITHIN 60 NM OF THE COAST OF MEXICO BETWEEN 90W AND 95W. AT THE SURFACE...BROAD HIGH PRES CENTER 1026 MB NEAR 35N150W CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN FAIR AND STABLE CONDITIONS OVER THE E PACIFIC N OF 10N W OF 110W WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW CLOUDS ACROSS REGION. PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN RIDGE AND LOWER PRESSURES OVER THE SW CONUS IS RESULTING IN GALE FORCE WINDS JUST N OF 32W ALONG COAST OF CALIFORNIA...ALLOWING MODERATE TO FRESH NW WINDS ALONG W COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA WITH SEAS TO 8 FT. WINDS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN EARLY SUN AS HIGH PRES CENTER DRIFTS N AND WEAKENS. FRESH N TO NE WINDS OF 20 KT WITH SEAS BUILDING 8-10 FT WILL MAINTAIN THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD N OF 27N BETWEEN 118W AND 132W. SURFACE TROUGH...REMNANTS OF ARLENE...IS LOCATED JUST SW OF THE TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. THE AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION NOTED EARLIER HAS DISSIPATED AS THE LOW LEVEL CENTER MOVES WESTWARD OVER SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER WATERS. $$ COBB