000 AXPZ20 KNHC 022135 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC SAT JUL 02 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2130 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N86W TO 13N95W TO 18N107W TO 12N115W TO 09N127W. AXIS OF ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 09N127W TO 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 120 NM OF MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 97W AND 104W TO THE COAST OF MEXICO. ...DISCUSSION... MID LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 30N124W SW TO ANOTHER CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 23N130W. THIS TROUGH WEAKENED WITH HEIGHT AS INDICATED BY 250 MB STREAMLINE ANALYSIS. MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SEPARATED AN ANTICYCLONIC GYRE LOCATED NEAR 20N136W AND A MORE EXTENSIVE ANTICYCLONE COMPLEX COVERING BAJA CALIFORNIA...MEXICO AND THE TROPICAL PACIFIC BETWEEN 95W AND 120W. A VAST AREA OF DEEP LAYERED SUBSIDENCE DOMINATED THE AREA W OF 120W AND N OF 20N BETWEEN 110W AND 120W. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WAS A 90-120 NM WIDE BAND OF MOSITURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ W OF 127W. MODERATE UPPER LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE ANTICYCLONE COMPLEX WAS ADVECTING ABUNDANT MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WESTWARD TO ALONG 120W. STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN ANTICYCLONE AND A NARROW SHEAR AXIS OVER YUCATAN EXTENDING SOUTHWARD TO COSTA RICA WAS ENHANCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 04N TO 08N BETWEEN 92W AND 98W AND WITHIN 120 NM OF THE COAST OF MEXICO BETWEEN 97W AND 104W. AT THE SURFACE...BROAD HIGH PRES CENTER 1026 MB NEAR 35N150W CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN FAIR AND STABLE CONDITIONS OVER THE E PACIFIC N OF 10N W OF 110W WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW CLOUDS ACROSS REGION. PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN RIDGE AND LOWER PRESSURES OVER THE SW CONUS IS RESULTING IN GALE FORCE WINDS JUST N OF 32W ALONG COAST OF CALIFORNIA...ALLOWING MODERATE TO FRESH NW WINDS ALONG W COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA WITH SEAS TO 8 FT. WINDS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN EARLY SUN AS HIGH PRES CENTER DRIFT N AND WEAKEN. FRESH N TO NE WINDS OF 20 KT WITH SEAS BUILDING 8-10 FT WILL MAINTAIN THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD N OF 27N BETWEEN 118W AND 132W. SURFACE TROUGH...REMNANTS OF ARLENE...IS LOCATED JUST S OF THE TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA STILL PRODUCING AN AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 150 NM OF 21N108W. AS THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION MOVES W OVER SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER WATERS TONIGHT AND SUN...EXPECT THE CONVECTION TO DISSIPATE. $$ COBB 000 AXPZ20 KNHC 022135 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC SAT JUL 02 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2130 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N86W TO 13N95W TO 18N107W TO 12N115W TO 09N127W. AXIS OF ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 09N127W TO 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 120 NM OF MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 97W AND 104W TO THE COAST OF MEXICO. ...DISCUSSION... MID LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 30N124W SW TO ANOTHER CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 23N130W. THIS TROUGH WEAKENED WITH HEIGHT AS INDICATED BY 250 MB STREAMLINE ANALYSIS. MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SEPARATED AN ANTICYCLONIC GYRE LOCATED NEAR 20N136W AND A MORE EXTENSIVE ANTICYCLONE COMPLEX COVERING BAJA CALIFORNIA...MEXICO AND THE TROPICAL PACIFIC BETWEEN 95W AND 120W. A VAST AREA OF DEEP LAYERED SUBSIDENCE DOMINATED THE AREA W OF 120W AND N OF 20N BETWEEN 110W AND 120W. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WAS A 90-120 NM WIDE BAND OF MOSITURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ W OF 127W. MODERATE UPPER LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE ANTICYCLONE COMPLEX WAS ADVECTING ABUNDANT MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WESTWARD TO ALONG 120W. STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN ANTICYCLONE AND A NARROW SHEAR AXIS OVER YUCATAN EXTENDING SOUTHWARD TO COSTA RICA WAS ENHANCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 04N TO 08N BETWEEN 92W AND 98W AND WITHIN 120 NM OF THE COAST OF MEXICO BETWEEN 97W AND 104W. AT THE SURFACE...BROAD HIGH PRES CENTER 1026 MB NEAR 35N150W CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN FAIR AND STABLE CONDITIONS OVER THE E PACIFIC N OF 10N W OF 110W WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW CLOUDS ACROSS REGION. PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN RIDGE AND LOWER PRESSURES OVER THE SW CONUS IS RESULTING IN GALE FORCE WINDS JUST N OF 32W ALONG COAST OF CALIFORNIA...ALLOWING MODERATE TO FRESH NW WINDS ALONG W COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA WITH SEAS TO 8 FT. WINDS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN EARLY SUN AS HIGH PRES CENTER DRIFT N AND WEAKEN. FRESH N TO NE WINDS OF 20 KT WITH SEAS BUILDING 8-10 FT WILL MAINTAIN THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD N OF 27N BETWEEN 118W AND 132W. SURFACE TROUGH...REMNANTS OF ARLENE...IS LOCATED JUST S OF THE TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA STILL PRODUCING AN AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 150 NM OF 21N108W. AS THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION MOVES W OVER SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER WATERS TONIGHT AND SUN...EXPECT THE CONVECTION TO DISSIPATE. $$ COBB