000 AXPZ20 KNHC 021554 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC SAT JUL 02 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1500 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 19N104W TO 10N110W TO 09N129W THEN ITCZ TO 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 120 NM S OF AXIS FROM 110W TO 122W. ...DISCUSSION... SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS S FROM CYCLONIC VORTEX AT 28N128W TO 20N131W TO SECOND VORTEX AT 05N139W. TROUGH AXIS SEPARATE TWO BROAD ANTICYCLONIC GYRES AND DRIES UP REGION W OF 120W WITH MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDING AIR MASS. EASTERNMOST ANTICYCLONIC GYRE EXTEND DRY AREA E TO 110W N OF 20N. AT THE SAME TIME ITS PERIPHERAL WINDS ADVECT ABUNDANT MOISTURE DEBRIS REMAINING FROM REMNANTS OF ARLENE INTO THE REGION S OF GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN GYRE AND TROUGH OVER PANAMA ALLOWS SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ALONG 08N-09N E OF 110W. FORTUNATELY STRONG N-NE VERTICAL SHEAR IN REGION ACTS AGAINST ANY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OR TROPICAL ORGANIZATION. ELSEWHERE AT THE SURFACE... BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRES CENTER 1025 MB AT 35N147W MAINTAINS FAIR AND STABLE CONDITIONS OVER E PAC N OF 10N W OF 110W WITH LOW STRATIFIED SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS ACROSS REGION. RIDGE SQUEEZES GRADIENT TO PROMPT GALE FORCE WINDS JUST N OF 32W ALONG COAST OF CALIFORNIA...ALLOWING MODERATE TO FRESH NW WINDS ALONG W COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA WITH SEAS TO 8 FT. WINDS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN EARLY SUN AS HIGH PRES CENTER DRIFT N AND WEAKEN. FRESH N TO NE BREEZE WITH SEAS 8-10 FT LINGER THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD N OF 27N E OF 132W. SURFACE TROUGH...REMNANTS OF ARLENE...JUST S OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA STILL MAINTAIN GOOD OUTFLOW AND NUMEROUS STRONG TSTMS WITHIN 60 NM OF 21N107W. $$ WALLY BARNES 000 AXPZ20 KNHC 021554 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC SAT JUL 02 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1500 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 19N104W TO 10N110W TO 09N129W THEN ITCZ TO 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 120 NM S OF AXIS FROM 110W TO 122W. ...DISCUSSION... SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS S FROM CYCLONIC VORTEX AT 28N128W TO 20N131W TO SECOND VORTEX AT 05N139W. TROUGH AXIS SEPARATE TWO BROAD ANTICYCLONIC GYRES AND DRIES UP REGION W OF 120W WITH MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDING AIR MASS. EASTERNMOST ANTICYCLONIC GYRE EXTEND DRY AREA E TO 110W N OF 20N. AT THE SAME TIME ITS PERIPHERAL WINDS ADVECT ABUNDANT MOISTURE DEBRIS REMAINING FROM REMNANTS OF ARLENE INTO THE REGION S OF GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN GYRE AND TROUGH OVER PANAMA ALLOWS SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ALONG 08N-09N E OF 110W. FORTUNATELY STRONG N-NE VERTICAL SHEAR IN REGION ACTS AGAINST ANY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OR TROPICAL ORGANIZATION. ELSEWHERE AT THE SURFACE... BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRES CENTER 1025 MB AT 35N147W MAINTAINS FAIR AND STABLE CONDITIONS OVER E PAC N OF 10N W OF 110W WITH LOW STRATIFIED SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS ACROSS REGION. RIDGE SQUEEZES GRADIENT TO PROMPT GALE FORCE WINDS JUST N OF 32W ALONG COAST OF CALIFORNIA...ALLOWING MODERATE TO FRESH NW WINDS ALONG W COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA WITH SEAS TO 8 FT. WINDS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN EARLY SUN AS HIGH PRES CENTER DRIFT N AND WEAKEN. FRESH N TO NE BREEZE WITH SEAS 8-10 FT LINGER THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD N OF 27N E OF 132W. SURFACE TROUGH...REMNANTS OF ARLENE...JUST S OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA STILL MAINTAIN GOOD OUTFLOW AND NUMEROUS STRONG TSTMS WITHIN 60 NM OF 21N107W. $$ WALLY BARNES