000 AXPZ20 KNHC 020902 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC SAT JUL 02 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0830 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 18N102W TO 10N120W TO 08N139W. ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 08N139W TO BEYOND 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM 18N TO 23N BETWEEN 103W AND 108W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60-90 NM OF THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA FROM S NICARAGUA TO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 04N TO 10N BETWEEN 98W AND 120W. ...DISCUSSION... UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXIS EXTENDS FROM SRN CALIFORNIA TO A WELL DEFINED CYCLONIC VORTEX NEAR 26N127W. E OF THIS LOW... A RATHER EXTENSIVE ANTICYCLONE IS OVER THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NEAR 23N112W. ANOTHER ANTICYCLONE IS W OF THE LOW NEAR 21N137W. DESPITE THE COMPLEX PATTERN A VAST AREA OF SUBSIDENCE COVERS MOST OF THIS AREA N OF 11N W OF 110W. UPPER LEVEL CONVECTIVE DEBRIS MOISTURE IS FURTHER S FROM 08N TO 22N E OF 118W. THE EXTENSIVE ANTICYLONE NOTED ABOVE DOMINATES THE FLOW OVER MEXICO AND THE EXTREME W GULF OF MEXICO AND THE E PACIFIC BETWEEN 90W AND 110W. A DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC VORTEX SW OF EL SALVADOR NEAR 10N89W IS MOVING W AND UNDERCUTTING THE SE PERIPHERY OF THE ANTICYCLONE. THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO BECOME A DEEP LOW WITH A SURFACE LOW FORMING IN 24 HOURS. AT THE SURFACE... BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRES CENTER 1026 MB NEAR 35N143W MAINTAINS FAIR AND STABLE CONDITIONS OVER THE E PACIFIC N OF 12N W OF 110W WITH LOW STRATIFIED SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS ACROSS REGION. PRESSURE GRADIENT SE OF THE HIGH IS RESULTING IN A SWATH OF MODERATE TO FRESH NW WINDS ALONG THE W COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA WITH SEAS TOPPING OUT AT 8 FT. THESE WINDS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN LATE SAT AS HIGH PRES CENTER MOVES NE. SURFACE TROUGH...REMNANTS OF ARLENE...IS NEAR THE W COAST OF MEXICO ALONG 20N100W 22N108W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS TROUGH AND HIGH PRES OFFSHORE RESULTING IN W TO NW WINDS OF 20 KT GENERALLY FROM 14N TO 20N BETWEEN 102W AND 110W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM 18N TO 23N BETWEEN 103W AND 108W. FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPING ON SAT WILL ALLOW SEAS TO BUILD TO 8 TO 10 FT INTO THE E PACIFIC N OF 27N BETWEEN 120W AND 132W BY SUN. THESE WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH 48 HOURS. $$ FORMOSA 000 AXPZ20 KNHC 020902 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC SAT JUL 02 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0830 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 18N102W TO 10N120W TO 08N139W. ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 08N139W TO BEYOND 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM 18N TO 23N BETWEEN 103W AND 108W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60-90 NM OF THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA FROM S NICARAGUA TO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 04N TO 10N BETWEEN 98W AND 120W. ...DISCUSSION... UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXIS EXTENDS FROM SRN CALIFORNIA TO A WELL DEFINED CYCLONIC VORTEX NEAR 26N127W. E OF THIS LOW... A RATHER EXTENSIVE ANTICYCLONE IS OVER THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NEAR 23N112W. ANOTHER ANTICYCLONE IS W OF THE LOW NEAR 21N137W. DESPITE THE COMPLEX PATTERN A VAST AREA OF SUBSIDENCE COVERS MOST OF THIS AREA N OF 11N W OF 110W. UPPER LEVEL CONVECTIVE DEBRIS MOISTURE IS FURTHER S FROM 08N TO 22N E OF 118W. THE EXTENSIVE ANTICYLONE NOTED ABOVE DOMINATES THE FLOW OVER MEXICO AND THE EXTREME W GULF OF MEXICO AND THE E PACIFIC BETWEEN 90W AND 110W. A DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC VORTEX SW OF EL SALVADOR NEAR 10N89W IS MOVING W AND UNDERCUTTING THE SE PERIPHERY OF THE ANTICYCLONE. THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO BECOME A DEEP LOW WITH A SURFACE LOW FORMING IN 24 HOURS. AT THE SURFACE... BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRES CENTER 1026 MB NEAR 35N143W MAINTAINS FAIR AND STABLE CONDITIONS OVER THE E PACIFIC N OF 12N W OF 110W WITH LOW STRATIFIED SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS ACROSS REGION. PRESSURE GRADIENT SE OF THE HIGH IS RESULTING IN A SWATH OF MODERATE TO FRESH NW WINDS ALONG THE W COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA WITH SEAS TOPPING OUT AT 8 FT. THESE WINDS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN LATE SAT AS HIGH PRES CENTER MOVES NE. SURFACE TROUGH...REMNANTS OF ARLENE...IS NEAR THE W COAST OF MEXICO ALONG 20N100W 22N108W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS TROUGH AND HIGH PRES OFFSHORE RESULTING IN W TO NW WINDS OF 20 KT GENERALLY FROM 14N TO 20N BETWEEN 102W AND 110W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM 18N TO 23N BETWEEN 103W AND 108W. FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPING ON SAT WILL ALLOW SEAS TO BUILD TO 8 TO 10 FT INTO THE E PACIFIC N OF 27N BETWEEN 120W AND 132W BY SUN. THESE WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH 48 HOURS. $$ FORMOSA