000 AXPZ20 KNHC 020226 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC SAT JUL 02 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0230 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 18N103W TO 13N115W TO 09N129W. ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 09N129W TO BEYOND 08N140W. NUMEROUS STRONG WITHIN 120 NM OF THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM 18N TO 21N. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 60-90 NM OF THE COAST OF COSTA RICA AND NICARAGUA. SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 04N TO 08N BETWEEN 85W AND 94W. ...DISCUSSION... UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXIS EXTENDS FROM ARIZONA-MEXICO BORDER ACROSS NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA TO A WELL DEFINED CYCLONIC VORTEX NEAR 24N128W THEN TURNS NW TO 29N140W. A NARROW TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED CYCLONIC VORTEX S TO NEAR 10N128W. THIS TROUGH SEPARATES A RATHER EXTENSIVE ANTICYCLONE NEAR THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NEAR 24N112W AND ANOTHER ANTICYCLONE NEAR 18N137W. DESPITE THE COMPLEX PATTERN A VAST AREA OF SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE AREA N OF 11N W OF 110W...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF UPPER LEVEL CONVECTIVE DEBRIS MOISTURE SWEEPING W FROM 08N TO 22N E OF 118W. THE EXTENSIVE ANTICYLONE NOTED ABOVE DOMINATES THE FLOW OVER MEXICO AND THE EXTREME W GULF OF MEXICO AND THE E PACIFIC BETWEEN 90W AND 110W. A DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC VORTEX SW OF EL SALVADOR NEAR 10N89W WAS MOVING W AND UNDERCUTTING THE SE PERIPHERY OF THE ANTICYCLONE. THIS FEATURE WAS AT THE BASE OF A NARROW SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH EXTENDED FROM THE E GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS THE GULF OF HONDURAS TO THE CYCLONIC VORTEX. AT THE SURFACE... BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRES CENTER 1027 MB NEAR 35N141W MAINTAINS FAIR AND STABLE CONDITIONS OVER THE E PACIFIC N OF 12N W OF 110W WITH LOW STRATIFIED SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS ACROSS REGION. PRESSURE GRADIENT SE OF THE HIGH IS RESULTING IN A SWATH OF MODERATE TO FRESH NW WINDS ALONG THE W COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA WITH SEAS TOPPING OUT AT 8 FT. THESE WINDS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN LATE SAT AS HIGH PRES CENTER MOVES NE. SURFACE LOW PRES 1002 MB...REMNANTS OF ARLENE...IS NEAR THE W COAST OF MEXICO WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE REMNANT LOW AND HIGH PRES OFFSHORE RESULTING IN W TO NW WINDS OF 20 KT GENERALLY FROM 14N TO 20N BETWEEN 102W AND 110W. FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPING ON SAT WILL ALLOW SEAS TO BUILD TO 8 TO 10 FT INTO THE E PACIFIC N OF 27N BETWEEN 120W AND 132W BY SUN. THESE WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH 48 HOURS. $$ COBB 000 AXPZ20 KNHC 020226 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC SAT JUL 02 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0230 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 18N103W TO 13N115W TO 09N129W. ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 09N129W TO BEYOND 08N140W. NUMEROUS STRONG WITHIN 120 NM OF THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM 18N TO 21N. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 60-90 NM OF THE COAST OF COSTA RICA AND NICARAGUA. SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 04N TO 08N BETWEEN 85W AND 94W. ...DISCUSSION... UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXIS EXTENDS FROM ARIZONA-MEXICO BORDER ACROSS NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA TO A WELL DEFINED CYCLONIC VORTEX NEAR 24N128W THEN TURNS NW TO 29N140W. A NARROW TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED CYCLONIC VORTEX S TO NEAR 10N128W. THIS TROUGH SEPARATES A RATHER EXTENSIVE ANTICYCLONE NEAR THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NEAR 24N112W AND ANOTHER ANTICYCLONE NEAR 18N137W. DESPITE THE COMPLEX PATTERN A VAST AREA OF SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE AREA N OF 11N W OF 110W...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF UPPER LEVEL CONVECTIVE DEBRIS MOISTURE SWEEPING W FROM 08N TO 22N E OF 118W. THE EXTENSIVE ANTICYLONE NOTED ABOVE DOMINATES THE FLOW OVER MEXICO AND THE EXTREME W GULF OF MEXICO AND THE E PACIFIC BETWEEN 90W AND 110W. A DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC VORTEX SW OF EL SALVADOR NEAR 10N89W WAS MOVING W AND UNDERCUTTING THE SE PERIPHERY OF THE ANTICYCLONE. THIS FEATURE WAS AT THE BASE OF A NARROW SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH EXTENDED FROM THE E GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS THE GULF OF HONDURAS TO THE CYCLONIC VORTEX. AT THE SURFACE... BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRES CENTER 1027 MB NEAR 35N141W MAINTAINS FAIR AND STABLE CONDITIONS OVER THE E PACIFIC N OF 12N W OF 110W WITH LOW STRATIFIED SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS ACROSS REGION. PRESSURE GRADIENT SE OF THE HIGH IS RESULTING IN A SWATH OF MODERATE TO FRESH NW WINDS ALONG THE W COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA WITH SEAS TOPPING OUT AT 8 FT. THESE WINDS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN LATE SAT AS HIGH PRES CENTER MOVES NE. SURFACE LOW PRES 1002 MB...REMNANTS OF ARLENE...IS NEAR THE W COAST OF MEXICO WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE REMNANT LOW AND HIGH PRES OFFSHORE RESULTING IN W TO NW WINDS OF 20 KT GENERALLY FROM 14N TO 20N BETWEEN 102W AND 110W. FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPING ON SAT WILL ALLOW SEAS TO BUILD TO 8 TO 10 FT INTO THE E PACIFIC N OF 27N BETWEEN 120W AND 132W BY SUN. THESE WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH 48 HOURS. $$ COBB