000 AXPZ20 KNHC 012209 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC FRI JUL 01 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2145 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 18N102W TO 12N110W TO 09N129W. ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 09N129W TO BEYOND 07N140W. NUMEROUS STRONG WITHIN 90 NM OF THE COAST OF MEXICO BETWEEN 102W AND 106W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 07N TO 14N BETWEEN 97W AND 108W. ...DISCUSSION... UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXIS EXTENDS FROM EXTREME SE ARIZONA ACROSS NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA TO A WELL DEFINED CYCLONIC VORTEX NEAR 25N127W THEN TURNS NW TO 30N138W. A NARROW TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED CYCLONIC VORTEX S TO NEAR 10N127W. THIS TROUGH SEPARATES A RATHER EXTENSIVE ANTICYCLONE NEAR THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NEAR 23N111W AND ANOTHER ANTICYCLONE NEAR 19N135W. DESPITE THE COMPLEX PATTERN A VAST AREA OF SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE AREA N OF 11N W OF 110W...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF UPPER LEVEL CONVECTIVE DEBRIS MOISTURE SWEEPING W FROM 10N TO 20N E OF 115W. THE EXTENSIVE ANTICYLONE NOTED ABOVE DOMINATES THE FLOW OVER MEXICO AND THE EXTREME W GULF OF MEXICO AND THE E PACIFIC BETWEEN 90W AND 110W. A DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC VORTEX JUST SW OF EL SALVADOR WAS MOVING W AND UNDERCUTTING THE ANTICYCLONE. THIS FEATURE WAS AT THE BASE OF A NARROW SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH EXTENDED FROM THE E GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS THE GULF OF HONDURAS TO THE CYCLONE. AT THE SURFACE... BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRES CENTER 1027 MB NEAR 35N141W MAINTAINS FAIR AND STABLE CONDITIONS OVER THE E PACIFIC N OF 12N W OF 110W WITH LOW STRATIFIED SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS ACROSS REGION. PRESSURE GRADIENT SE OF THE HIGH IS RESULTING IN A SWATH OF MODERATE TO FRESH NW WINDS ALONG THE W COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA WITH SEAS TOPPING 8 FT. WINDS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SAT AS HIGH PRES CENTER MOVE NE. SURFACE LOW PRES 1004 MB...REMNANTS OF ARLENE...REMAIN OVER MEXICO WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW AND HIGH PRES OFFSHORE HAS RESULTED IN FRESH TO STRONG ONSHORE W TO NW WINDS GENERALLY FROM 14N TO 20N BETWEEN 102W AND 110W. COPIOUS RAINFALL FROM 04N TO 10N E OF 95W EXPECTED INTO TONIGHT. FRESH N WINDS FORCE 8-9 FT SWELLS INTO E PAC N OF 27N FROM 120W TO 132W EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BY END OF FORECAST PERIOD. $$ COBB 000 AXPZ20 KNHC 012209 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC FRI JUL 01 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2145 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 18N102W TO 12N110W TO 09N129W. ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 09N129W TO BEYOND 07N140W. NUMEROUS STRONG WITHIN 90 NM OF THE COAST OF MEXICO BETWEEN 102W AND 106W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 07N TO 14N BETWEEN 97W AND 108W. ...DISCUSSION... UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXIS EXTENDS FROM EXTREME SE ARIZONA ACROSS NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA TO A WELL DEFINED CYCLONIC VORTEX NEAR 25N127W THEN TURNS NW TO 30N138W. A NARROW TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED CYCLONIC VORTEX S TO NEAR 10N127W. THIS TROUGH SEPARATES A RATHER EXTENSIVE ANTICYCLONE NEAR THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NEAR 23N111W AND ANOTHER ANTICYCLONE NEAR 19N135W. DESPITE THE COMPLEX PATTERN A VAST AREA OF SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE AREA N OF 11N W OF 110W...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF UPPER LEVEL CONVECTIVE DEBRIS MOISTURE SWEEPING W FROM 10N TO 20N E OF 115W. THE EXTENSIVE ANTICYLONE NOTED ABOVE DOMINATES THE FLOW OVER MEXICO AND THE EXTREME W GULF OF MEXICO AND THE E PACIFIC BETWEEN 90W AND 110W. A DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC VORTEX JUST SW OF EL SALVADOR WAS MOVING W AND UNDERCUTTING THE ANTICYCLONE. THIS FEATURE WAS AT THE BASE OF A NARROW SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH EXTENDED FROM THE E GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS THE GULF OF HONDURAS TO THE CYCLONE. AT THE SURFACE... BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRES CENTER 1027 MB NEAR 35N141W MAINTAINS FAIR AND STABLE CONDITIONS OVER THE E PACIFIC N OF 12N W OF 110W WITH LOW STRATIFIED SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS ACROSS REGION. PRESSURE GRADIENT SE OF THE HIGH IS RESULTING IN A SWATH OF MODERATE TO FRESH NW WINDS ALONG THE W COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA WITH SEAS TOPPING 8 FT. WINDS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SAT AS HIGH PRES CENTER MOVE NE. SURFACE LOW PRES 1004 MB...REMNANTS OF ARLENE...REMAIN OVER MEXICO WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW AND HIGH PRES OFFSHORE HAS RESULTED IN FRESH TO STRONG ONSHORE W TO NW WINDS GENERALLY FROM 14N TO 20N BETWEEN 102W AND 110W. COPIOUS RAINFALL FROM 04N TO 10N E OF 95W EXPECTED INTO TONIGHT. FRESH N WINDS FORCE 8-9 FT SWELLS INTO E PAC N OF 27N FROM 120W TO 132W EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BY END OF FORECAST PERIOD. $$ COBB