000
AXPZ20 KNHC 011541
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC FRI JUL 01 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH AXIS 17N102W TO 11N110W TO 09N129W THEN ITCZ TO 
08N130W TO 08N140W.  NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION FROM 12N TO 20N 
E OF 107W.

...DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM SE ARIZONA TO WELL DEFINED CYCLONIC 
VORTEX AT 26N126W THEN TURNS NW TO 32N134W AND BROAD ANTICYCLONE 
AT 19N133W MAINTAIN VERY DRU HOLD OVER E PAC N OF 12N W OF 115W.
SECOND ANTICYCLONE AT 21N112W WOULD EXTEND DRY SLOT EVEN FURTHER 
IF IT WAS NOT FOR LARGE PLUME OF CONVECTIVE DEBRIS FROM ARLENE 
WHICH IS ADVECTED W BY 40 KT NE-E UPPER LEVEL WINDS.

SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CUTS S FROM E GUATEMALA TO 01N78W 
ENHANCE NE SHEAR ALOFT E OF 100W MAKING ENVIRONMENT HOSTILE TO 
ANY LOW LEVEL TROPICAL ORGANIZATION FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT TWO 
DAYS. 

AT THE SURFACE...
BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRES CENTER 1027N AT 35N141W MAINTAINS FAIR 
AND STABLE CONDITIONS OVER E PAC N OF 12N W OF 110W WITH LOW 
STRATIFIED SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS ACROSS REGION.  SWATH OF 
MODERATE TO FRESH NW WINDS SCRAPE W COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA 
PENINSULA WITH SEAS TOPPING 8 FT.  WINDS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SAT 
AS HIGH PRES CENTER MOVE NE.  

SURFACE LOW PRES 1002 MB...REMNANTS OF ARLENE...REMAIN OVER 
MEXICO BUT GRADIENT WITH HIGH PRES CENTER FORCE FRESH TO STRONG 
W WIND ONSHORE AGAINST MOUNTAIN RANGE.  COPIOUS RAINFALL FROM 
04N-10N E OF 95W EXPECTED THROUGHOUT TODAY DIMINISHING TONIGHT. 

FRESH N WINDS FORCE 8-9 FT SWELLS INTO E PAC N OF 27N FROM 120W 
TO 132W EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BY END OF FORECAST PERIOD.

$$
WALLY BARNES



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 011541
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC FRI JUL 01 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH AXIS 17N102W TO 11N110W TO 09N129W THEN ITCZ TO 
08N130W TO 08N140W.  NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION FROM 12N TO 20N 
E OF 107W.

...DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM SE ARIZONA TO WELL DEFINED CYCLONIC 
VORTEX AT 26N126W THEN TURNS NW TO 32N134W AND BROAD ANTICYCLONE 
AT 19N133W MAINTAIN VERY DRU HOLD OVER E PAC N OF 12N W OF 115W.
SECOND ANTICYCLONE AT 21N112W WOULD EXTEND DRY SLOT EVEN FURTHER 
IF IT WAS NOT FOR LARGE PLUME OF CONVECTIVE DEBRIS FROM ARLENE 
WHICH IS ADVECTED W BY 40 KT NE-E UPPER LEVEL WINDS.

SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CUTS S FROM E GUATEMALA TO 01N78W 
ENHANCE NE SHEAR ALOFT E OF 100W MAKING ENVIRONMENT HOSTILE TO 
ANY LOW LEVEL TROPICAL ORGANIZATION FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT TWO 
DAYS. 

AT THE SURFACE...
BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRES CENTER 1027N AT 35N141W MAINTAINS FAIR 
AND STABLE CONDITIONS OVER E PAC N OF 12N W OF 110W WITH LOW 
STRATIFIED SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS ACROSS REGION.  SWATH OF 
MODERATE TO FRESH NW WINDS SCRAPE W COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA 
PENINSULA WITH SEAS TOPPING 8 FT.  WINDS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SAT 
AS HIGH PRES CENTER MOVE NE.  

SURFACE LOW PRES 1002 MB...REMNANTS OF ARLENE...REMAIN OVER 
MEXICO BUT GRADIENT WITH HIGH PRES CENTER FORCE FRESH TO STRONG 
W WIND ONSHORE AGAINST MOUNTAIN RANGE.  COPIOUS RAINFALL FROM 
04N-10N E OF 95W EXPECTED THROUGHOUT TODAY DIMINISHING TONIGHT. 

FRESH N WINDS FORCE 8-9 FT SWELLS INTO E PAC N OF 27N FROM 120W 
TO 132W EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BY END OF FORECAST PERIOD.

$$
WALLY BARNES