000 AXPZ20 KNHC 010247 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC FRI JUL 01 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0230 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH HAS PUSHED INLAND ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA FROM NICARAGUA TO GUATEMALA. THE BROAD LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AROUND NOW TROPICAL DEPRESSION ARLENE...CURRENTLY LOCATED ABOUT 120 NM SW OF TAMPICO MEXICO IS ENHANCING A BROAD SWEEP OF WESTERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INTO MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA RESULTING IN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR LIFE THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF MEXICO NEAR 17N101W TO TO 13N110W TO 09N130W. THE WEAK 1011 MB LOW EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 12N108W HAS DISSIPATED. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N130W TO BEYOND 08N140W. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 60-90 NM OF THE COAST OF PANAMA COSTA RICA AND NICARAGUA BETWEEN 82W AND 87W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS ELSEWHERE WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE 09N86W TO 08N90W. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG N OF 10N TO THE COAST OF MEXICO BETWEEN 91W AND 100W INCLUDING THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 120 NM OF THE COAST OF MEXICO BETWEEN 100W AND 106W. ...DISCUSSION... W OF 110W... AN UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXIS EXTENDS SW ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA INTO AN UPPER CYCLONE NEAR 23N127W...THEN CONTINUES WNW THROUGH 27N135W TO 29N140W. A MID LEVEL CYCLONE NEAR 22N141W WAS MOVING W OF THE AREA. THIS SHEAR AXIS SEPARATED TWO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONES...THE FIRST LOCATED NEAR 32N121W AND THE SECOND NEAR 20N132W. A SMALL MID TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE NEAR 22N118W WAS MOVING W 10 KT. DESPITE THE COMPLEX UPPER LEVEL FLOW DEEP LAYERED SUBSIDENCE PREVAILED OVER THE AREA N OF 12N W OF 110W. E OF 110W... THE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL DEPRESSION ARLENE IS CENTERED NEAR 25N104W WITH THE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERING MEXICO...CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE WESTERN HALF OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW...AND GENERAL UPPER DIFFLUENCE... DOMINATES THE DISCUSSION AREA E OF 110W. DENSE MID AND UPPER LEVEL DEBRIS MOISTURE...FROM TROPICAL STORM ARLENE AND THE PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED MONSOON TROUGH CONVECTION...FANS OUT OVER THE DISCUSSION AREA FROM 05N TO 23N E OF 110W. AT THE SURFACE...A BROAD RIDGE ACCOMPANIED BY BROKEN TO OVERCAST STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS...COVERS THE MARINE AREA N OF 14N TO THE W OF 115W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT NE OF THE RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN A SWATH OF NORTHWESTERLY 15 TO 20 KT WINDS OVER THE WATERS N OF 25N WITHIN 180 NM W OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FOR A FEW MORE DAYS. AS TROPICAL DEPRESSION ARLENE CONTINUES W OVER INTERIOR CENTRAL MEXICO WESTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL INCREASE EARLY FRI TO 20 TO 25 KT OVER THE PACIFIC WATERS FROM 14N TO 20N BETWEEN 100W AND 110W...THEN DIMINISH ON SAT. NORTHERLY SWELL ACCOMPANIED BY NORTHERLY WINDS OF 20 KT WILL RESULT IN COMBINED SEAS TO 8 FT THAT ARE EXPECTED TO PROPAGATE S INTO THE PACIFIC WATERS TO THE N OF 28N BETWEEN 120W AND 132W BEGINNING LATE FRI AND CONTINUE INTO SAT. $$ COBB 000 AXPZ20 KNHC 010247 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC FRI JUL 01 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0230 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH HAS PUSHED INLAND ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA FROM NICARAGUA TO GUATEMALA. THE BROAD LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AROUND NOW TROPICAL DEPRESSION ARLENE...CURRENTLY LOCATED ABOUT 120 NM SW OF TAMPICO MEXICO IS ENHANCING A BROAD SWEEP OF WESTERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INTO MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA RESULTING IN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR LIFE THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF MEXICO NEAR 17N101W TO TO 13N110W TO 09N130W. THE WEAK 1011 MB LOW EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 12N108W HAS DISSIPATED. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N130W TO BEYOND 08N140W. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 60-90 NM OF THE COAST OF PANAMA COSTA RICA AND NICARAGUA BETWEEN 82W AND 87W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS ELSEWHERE WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE 09N86W TO 08N90W. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG N OF 10N TO THE COAST OF MEXICO BETWEEN 91W AND 100W INCLUDING THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 120 NM OF THE COAST OF MEXICO BETWEEN 100W AND 106W. ...DISCUSSION... W OF 110W... AN UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXIS EXTENDS SW ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA INTO AN UPPER CYCLONE NEAR 23N127W...THEN CONTINUES WNW THROUGH 27N135W TO 29N140W. A MID LEVEL CYCLONE NEAR 22N141W WAS MOVING W OF THE AREA. THIS SHEAR AXIS SEPARATED TWO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONES...THE FIRST LOCATED NEAR 32N121W AND THE SECOND NEAR 20N132W. A SMALL MID TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE NEAR 22N118W WAS MOVING W 10 KT. DESPITE THE COMPLEX UPPER LEVEL FLOW DEEP LAYERED SUBSIDENCE PREVAILED OVER THE AREA N OF 12N W OF 110W. E OF 110W... THE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL DEPRESSION ARLENE IS CENTERED NEAR 25N104W WITH THE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERING MEXICO...CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE WESTERN HALF OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW...AND GENERAL UPPER DIFFLUENCE... DOMINATES THE DISCUSSION AREA E OF 110W. DENSE MID AND UPPER LEVEL DEBRIS MOISTURE...FROM TROPICAL STORM ARLENE AND THE PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED MONSOON TROUGH CONVECTION...FANS OUT OVER THE DISCUSSION AREA FROM 05N TO 23N E OF 110W. AT THE SURFACE...A BROAD RIDGE ACCOMPANIED BY BROKEN TO OVERCAST STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS...COVERS THE MARINE AREA N OF 14N TO THE W OF 115W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT NE OF THE RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN A SWATH OF NORTHWESTERLY 15 TO 20 KT WINDS OVER THE WATERS N OF 25N WITHIN 180 NM W OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FOR A FEW MORE DAYS. AS TROPICAL DEPRESSION ARLENE CONTINUES W OVER INTERIOR CENTRAL MEXICO WESTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL INCREASE EARLY FRI TO 20 TO 25 KT OVER THE PACIFIC WATERS FROM 14N TO 20N BETWEEN 100W AND 110W...THEN DIMINISH ON SAT. NORTHERLY SWELL ACCOMPANIED BY NORTHERLY WINDS OF 20 KT WILL RESULT IN COMBINED SEAS TO 8 FT THAT ARE EXPECTED TO PROPAGATE S INTO THE PACIFIC WATERS TO THE N OF 28N BETWEEN 120W AND 132W BEGINNING LATE FRI AND CONTINUE INTO SAT. $$ COBB