000 AXPZ20 KNHC 302207 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC THU JUN 30 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2145 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH HAS PUSHED INLAND ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA FROM NICARAGUA TO GUATEMALA. THE BROAD LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AROUND TROPICAL STORM ARLENE...CURRENTLY INLAND OVER EAST CENTRAL MEXICO IS ENHANCING A BROAD SWEEP OF WESTERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INTO MEXICO. THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF MEXICO NEAR 17N101W TO 12N110W TO 09N128W. A WEAK 1011 MB LOW WAS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 12N108W AND IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE TONIGHT. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N128W TO BEYOND 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 150 NM OF LINE FROM GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC NEAR 16N94W TO 10N101W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG N OF 14N TO THE COAST OF MEXICO BETWEEN 100W AND 106W. ELSEWHERE SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE 09N85W TO 08N100W. ...DISCUSSION... W OF 110W... AN UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXIS EXTENDS SW ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA INTO AN UPPER CYCLONE NEAR 23N127W...THEN CONTINUES WNW THROUGH 27N135W TO 29N140W. A MID LEVEL CYCLONE NEAR 22N141W WAS MOVING W OF THE AREA. THIS SHEAR AXIS SEPARATED TWO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONES...THE FIRST LOCATED NEAR 32N121W AND THE SECOND NEAR 20N132W. A SMALL MID TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE NEAR 22N118W WAS MOVING W 10 KT. DESPITE THE COMPLEX UPPER LEVEL FLOW DEEP LAYERED SUBSIDENCE PREVAILED OVER THE AREA N OF 12N W OF 110W. E OF 110W... THE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM ARLENE IS CENTERED NEAR 24N102W WITH THE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERING MEXICO...CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE WESTERN HALF OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW...AND GENERAL UPPER DIFFLUENCE... DOMINATES THE DISCUSSION AREA E OF 110W. DENSE MID AND UPPER LEVEL DEBRIS MOISTURE...FROM TROPICAL STORM ARLENE AND THE PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED MONSOON TROUGH CONVECTION...FANS OUT OVER THE DISCUSSION AREA FROM 05N TO 23N E OF 110W. AT THE SURFACE...A BROAD RIDGE ACCOMPANIED BY BROKEN TO OVERCAST STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS...COVERS THE MARINE AREA N OF 14N TO THE W OF 115W. THE SMALL AREA OF 20 KT NE TRADES OBSERVED SW OF THE RIDGE FROM 07N TO 11N W OF 135W HAS DIMINISHED BELOW 20 KT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT NE OF THE RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN A SWATH OF NORTHWESTERLY 15 TO 20 KT WINDS OVER THE WATERS N OF 25N WITHIN 180 NM W OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FOR A COUPLE MORE DAYS. AS TROPICAL STORM ARLENE CONTINUES W OVER INTERIOR CENTRAL MEXICO WESTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AND FRI TO 20 TO 25 KT OVER THE PACIFIC WATERS FROM 14N TO 20N BETWEEN 100W AND 110W...THEN DIMINISH ON SAT. NORTHERLY SWELL RESULTING IN COMBINED SEAS TO 8 FT...WILL PROPAGATE S INTO THE PACIFIC WATERS TO THE N OF 28N BETWEEN 120W AND 132W BEGINNING FRI NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO SAT. $$ COBB 000 AXPZ20 KNHC 302207 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC THU JUN 30 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2145 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH HAS PUSHED INLAND ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA FROM NICARAGUA TO GUATEMALA. THE BROAD LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AROUND TROPICAL STORM ARLENE...CURRENTLY INLAND OVER EAST CENTRAL MEXICO IS ENHANCING A BROAD SWEEP OF WESTERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INTO MEXICO. THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF MEXICO NEAR 17N101W TO 12N110W TO 09N128W. A WEAK 1011 MB LOW WAS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 12N108W AND IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE TONIGHT. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N128W TO BEYOND 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 150 NM OF LINE FROM GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC NEAR 16N94W TO 10N101W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG N OF 14N TO THE COAST OF MEXICO BETWEEN 100W AND 106W. ELSEWHERE SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE 09N85W TO 08N100W. ...DISCUSSION... W OF 110W... AN UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXIS EXTENDS SW ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA INTO AN UPPER CYCLONE NEAR 23N127W...THEN CONTINUES WNW THROUGH 27N135W TO 29N140W. A MID LEVEL CYCLONE NEAR 22N141W WAS MOVING W OF THE AREA. THIS SHEAR AXIS SEPARATED TWO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONES...THE FIRST LOCATED NEAR 32N121W AND THE SECOND NEAR 20N132W. A SMALL MID TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE NEAR 22N118W WAS MOVING W 10 KT. DESPITE THE COMPLEX UPPER LEVEL FLOW DEEP LAYERED SUBSIDENCE PREVAILED OVER THE AREA N OF 12N W OF 110W. E OF 110W... THE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM ARLENE IS CENTERED NEAR 24N102W WITH THE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERING MEXICO...CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE WESTERN HALF OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW...AND GENERAL UPPER DIFFLUENCE... DOMINATES THE DISCUSSION AREA E OF 110W. DENSE MID AND UPPER LEVEL DEBRIS MOISTURE...FROM TROPICAL STORM ARLENE AND THE PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED MONSOON TROUGH CONVECTION...FANS OUT OVER THE DISCUSSION AREA FROM 05N TO 23N E OF 110W. AT THE SURFACE...A BROAD RIDGE ACCOMPANIED BY BROKEN TO OVERCAST STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS...COVERS THE MARINE AREA N OF 14N TO THE W OF 115W. THE SMALL AREA OF 20 KT NE TRADES OBSERVED SW OF THE RIDGE FROM 07N TO 11N W OF 135W HAS DIMINISHED BELOW 20 KT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT NE OF THE RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN A SWATH OF NORTHWESTERLY 15 TO 20 KT WINDS OVER THE WATERS N OF 25N WITHIN 180 NM W OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FOR A COUPLE MORE DAYS. AS TROPICAL STORM ARLENE CONTINUES W OVER INTERIOR CENTRAL MEXICO WESTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AND FRI TO 20 TO 25 KT OVER THE PACIFIC WATERS FROM 14N TO 20N BETWEEN 100W AND 110W...THEN DIMINISH ON SAT. NORTHERLY SWELL RESULTING IN COMBINED SEAS TO 8 FT...WILL PROPAGATE S INTO THE PACIFIC WATERS TO THE N OF 28N BETWEEN 120W AND 132W BEGINNING FRI NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO SAT. $$ COBB