000 AXPZ20 KNHC 300905 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC THU JUN 30 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0845 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 10N85W TO 14N91W THEN RESUMES FROM THE COAST OF MEXICO NEAR 15N97W TO 12N104W TO 10N123W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 10N123W TO 06N130W TO 06N140W. NUMEROUS MODERATE AND SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS N OF 04N WITHIN 90-120 NM OF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA...WITHIN 180-240 NM OF THE COASTS OF COSTA RICA...NICARAGUA AND EL SALVADOR BETWEEN 85W AND 89W...AND WITHIN 60-90 NM OF THE COAST OF MEXICO BETWEEN 93W AND 97W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90-120 NM S OF A LINE FROM 07N79W TO 08N85W...AND WITHIN 120-180 NM S OF A LINE FROM 11N98W TO 09N109W. ...DISCUSSION... A SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE SW CORNER OF THE CALIFORNIA/MEXICO BORDER NEAR 32.5N117W THROUGH 29N120W TO A COL NEAR 27N130W WITH ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH W OF THE COL TO 28N140W. THE TROUGH WAS SUPPORTING A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT AT THE SURFACE WHICH EXTENDED FROM THE CALIFORNIA/MEXICO BORDER THROUGH 29N122W TO 28N140W. THIS FRONT IS ONLY ACCOMPANIED BY A 10-15 KT W TO NW WIND SHIFT AS INDICATED BY RECENT WINDSAT AND ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASSES. AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE OVER 31N129W IS MOVING E-SE BEHIND THE UPPER TROUGH WITH AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING TO THE COL REFERENCED ABOVE. ANOTHER UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS TO THE SOUTH POSITIONED OVER 19N129W WITH AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS REACHING FROM THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA NEAR 27N114W THROUGH THE ANTICYCLONE TO 20N140W. MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH MAINLY DRY AIR IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY ACROSS THE WATERS FROM 15N TO 30N W OF 118W. A SMALL UPPER CYCLONE DRIFTING W IS JUST TO THE E NEAR 20N116W WITH AN INVERTED UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING NE FROM THIS CYCLONE TO NEAR THE NEW MEXICO/MEXICO BORDER. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE MAJORITY OF THE REMAINDER OF THE DISCUSSION AREA WITH A PARENT ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER W CENTRAL MEXICO NEAR 21N104W EXTENDING AN UPPER RIDGE SW TO NEAR 15N120W...WITH AN UPPER CYCLONE OVER 21N96W COINCIDENT WITH TROPICAL STORM ARLENE WHICH IS APPROACHING THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO. DENSE MID TO UPPER LEVEL DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM TROPICAL STORM ARLENE AND NUMEROUS CLUSTERS OF STRONG CONVECTION OVER AND JUST OFFSHORE OF SE MEXICO AND THE MAJORITY OF CENTRAL AMERICA AS DESCRIBED IN THE SECTION ABOVE FANS OUT OVER THE DISCUSSION AREA FROM 03N TO 23N E OF 110W. ELSEWHERE AT THE SURFACE...A BROAD RIDGE WITH BROKEN TO OVERCAST STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS COVERS THE MARINE AREA FROM 14N TO 25N W OF 120W. A SMALL AREA OF 20 KT NE TRADES ARE OBSERVED S OF THE RIDGE FROM 07N TO 11N W OF 135W...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH WITHIN 18-24 HOURS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS TIGHTENED N OF THE RIDGE RESULTING IN A SWATH OF NW 20 KT WINDS TO THE N OF 28N ALONG THE W COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO EXPAND TO 25N THROUGH FRI NIGHT. AS TROPICAL STORM ARLENE MOVES W OVER INTERIOR CENTRAL MEXICO WESTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20 KT OVER THE PACIFIC WATERS FROM 17N TO 20N BETWEEN 102W AND 106W BY THIS AFTERNOON ...THEN WILL INCREASE TO 20-25 KT TONIGHT WHILE EXPANDING TO THE AREA FROM 15N TO 20N BETWEEN 100W AND 108W AS ARLENE CONTINUES TO MOVE INLAND. WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH BACK TO 20 KT FRI NIGHT WHILE SHRINKING IN COVERAGE AS ARLENE DISSIPATES. A NEW SET OF NW SWELL WILL BREACH THE FAR N CENTRAL WATERS N OF 29N BETWEEN 122W AND 128W BEGINNING FRI NIGHT. $$ LEWITSKY 000 AXPZ20 KNHC 300905 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC THU JUN 30 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0845 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 10N85W TO 14N91W THEN RESUMES FROM THE COAST OF MEXICO NEAR 15N97W TO 12N104W TO 10N123W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 10N123W TO 06N130W TO 06N140W. NUMEROUS MODERATE AND SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS N OF 04N WITHIN 90-120 NM OF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA...WITHIN 180-240 NM OF THE COASTS OF COSTA RICA...NICARAGUA AND EL SALVADOR BETWEEN 85W AND 89W...AND WITHIN 60-90 NM OF THE COAST OF MEXICO BETWEEN 93W AND 97W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90-120 NM S OF A LINE FROM 07N79W TO 08N85W...AND WITHIN 120-180 NM S OF A LINE FROM 11N98W TO 09N109W. ...DISCUSSION... A SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE SW CORNER OF THE CALIFORNIA/MEXICO BORDER NEAR 32.5N117W THROUGH 29N120W TO A COL NEAR 27N130W WITH ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH W OF THE COL TO 28N140W. THE TROUGH WAS SUPPORTING A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT AT THE SURFACE WHICH EXTENDED FROM THE CALIFORNIA/MEXICO BORDER THROUGH 29N122W TO 28N140W. THIS FRONT IS ONLY ACCOMPANIED BY A 10-15 KT W TO NW WIND SHIFT AS INDICATED BY RECENT WINDSAT AND ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASSES. AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE OVER 31N129W IS MOVING E-SE BEHIND THE UPPER TROUGH WITH AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING TO THE COL REFERENCED ABOVE. ANOTHER UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS TO THE SOUTH POSITIONED OVER 19N129W WITH AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS REACHING FROM THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA NEAR 27N114W THROUGH THE ANTICYCLONE TO 20N140W. MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH MAINLY DRY AIR IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY ACROSS THE WATERS FROM 15N TO 30N W OF 118W. A SMALL UPPER CYCLONE DRIFTING W IS JUST TO THE E NEAR 20N116W WITH AN INVERTED UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING NE FROM THIS CYCLONE TO NEAR THE NEW MEXICO/MEXICO BORDER. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE MAJORITY OF THE REMAINDER OF THE DISCUSSION AREA WITH A PARENT ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER W CENTRAL MEXICO NEAR 21N104W EXTENDING AN UPPER RIDGE SW TO NEAR 15N120W...WITH AN UPPER CYCLONE OVER 21N96W COINCIDENT WITH TROPICAL STORM ARLENE WHICH IS APPROACHING THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO. DENSE MID TO UPPER LEVEL DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM TROPICAL STORM ARLENE AND NUMEROUS CLUSTERS OF STRONG CONVECTION OVER AND JUST OFFSHORE OF SE MEXICO AND THE MAJORITY OF CENTRAL AMERICA AS DESCRIBED IN THE SECTION ABOVE FANS OUT OVER THE DISCUSSION AREA FROM 03N TO 23N E OF 110W. ELSEWHERE AT THE SURFACE...A BROAD RIDGE WITH BROKEN TO OVERCAST STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS COVERS THE MARINE AREA FROM 14N TO 25N W OF 120W. A SMALL AREA OF 20 KT NE TRADES ARE OBSERVED S OF THE RIDGE FROM 07N TO 11N W OF 135W...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH WITHIN 18-24 HOURS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS TIGHTENED N OF THE RIDGE RESULTING IN A SWATH OF NW 20 KT WINDS TO THE N OF 28N ALONG THE W COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO EXPAND TO 25N THROUGH FRI NIGHT. AS TROPICAL STORM ARLENE MOVES W OVER INTERIOR CENTRAL MEXICO WESTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20 KT OVER THE PACIFIC WATERS FROM 17N TO 20N BETWEEN 102W AND 106W BY THIS AFTERNOON ...THEN WILL INCREASE TO 20-25 KT TONIGHT WHILE EXPANDING TO THE AREA FROM 15N TO 20N BETWEEN 100W AND 108W AS ARLENE CONTINUES TO MOVE INLAND. WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH BACK TO 20 KT FRI NIGHT WHILE SHRINKING IN COVERAGE AS ARLENE DISSIPATES. A NEW SET OF NW SWELL WILL BREACH THE FAR N CENTRAL WATERS N OF 29N BETWEEN 122W AND 128W BEGINNING FRI NIGHT. $$ LEWITSKY