000 AXPZ20 KNHC 292140 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC WED JUN 29 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2130 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS W ACROSS COSTA RICA TO 11N91W...THEN RESUMES FROM THE COAST OF MEXICO NEAR 18N103W TO A WEAK 1011 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR 12N111W THEN CONTINUES THROUGH 11N120W TO 08N128W. BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM ARLENE LOCATED IN THE SW GULF OF MEXICO WAS NOTED ALONG THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND MEXICO BETWEEN 92W AND 108W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 08N128W TO 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 180 NM LINE 08N82W TO 06N94W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 103W AND 110W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 120 NM OF THE COAST OF MEXICO BETWEEN 93W AND 96W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 180 NM OF THE COAST OF MEXICO BETWEEN 100W AND 108W. ...DISCUSSION... A SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TO 30N124W TO A COL NEAR 28N131W. A MID LEVEL CYCLONE WAS CENTERED NEAR 23N138W AND MOVING W AT 10 KT. THE TROUGH WAS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT WHICH EXTENDED FROM 32N120W TO 28.5N138W. THIS FRONT WAS ONLY ACCOMPANIED BY A 15 KT W TO NW WIND SHIFT. AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS JUST W OF THE AREA NEAR 18N150W WITH AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING NE JUST TO THE W OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED OVER NORTHERN OLD MEXICO NEAR 30N105W WITH AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING SW TO NEAR 20N134W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE EXTREME NW GULF OF MEXICO SW ACROSS NORTHERN OLD MEXICO. THE UPPER TROUGH THEN TURNS ABRUPTLY SW INTO ANOTHER UPPER CYCLONE OVER THE PACIFIC NEAR 21N115W THAT IS MOVING W ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THIS TROUGH EFFECTIVELY SEPARATES THE UPPER FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE FROM ANOTHER BROAD RIDGE OVER THE TROPICS. THE PARENT UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS OVER TROPICAL STORM ARLENE IN THE SW GULF OF MEXICO WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING SW ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA THROUGH 14N116W TO BEYOND 15N128W WHERE THE FLOW MERGES WITH THE FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. DENSE MID TO UPPER LEVEL DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM TROPICAL STORM ARLENE AND THE PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED E PACIFIC CONVECTION FANS OUT OVER THE DISCUSSION AREA FROM 03N TO 23N BETWEEN 80W AND 110W. DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM PRIOR CONVECTION OVER NW OLD MEXICO CONCENTRATES INTO A NARROW PLUME STREAMING N OVER SE ARIZONA AND WESTERN NEW MEXICO BEFORE FANNING OUT ACROSS NORTHERN NEW MEXICO. THE UPPER LEVELS ARE VERY DRY TO THE N OF 15N W OF 110W INCLUDING WESTERN ARIZONA AND EXTREME SE CALIFORNIA...AND OVER THE DEEP TROPICS TO THE S OF 16N BETWEEN 114W AND 142W. ELSEWHERE AT THE SURFACE...A BROAD RIDGE WITH BROKEN TO OVERCAST STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS COVERS THE MARINE AREA TO THE N OF 15N W OF BAJA CALIFORNIA BRIDGING THROUGH THE COLD FRONT NOTED ABOVE. A SMALL AREA OF 20 KT NE TRADES ARE OBSERVED S OF THE RIDGE FROM 07N TO 11N W OF 135W...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH WITHIN 36 TO 48 HOURS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS TIGHTENED NW OF THE RIDGE RESULTING IN A SWATH OF NW 20 KT WINDS TO THE N OF 25N ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...AND EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH FRI. AS TROPICAL STORM ARLENE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO MOVES W OVER INTERIOR CENTRAL MEXICO SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20 KT OVER THE PACIFIC WATERS FROM 15N TO 20N BETWEEN 95W AND 105W ON THU...AND FROM 15N TO 20N BETWEEN 100W AND 107W ON FRI WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 8 FT. $$ COBB 000 AXPZ20 KNHC 292140 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC WED JUN 29 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2130 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS W ACROSS COSTA RICA TO 11N91W...THEN RESUMES FROM THE COAST OF MEXICO NEAR 18N103W TO A WEAK 1011 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR 12N111W THEN CONTINUES THROUGH 11N120W TO 08N128W. BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM ARLENE LOCATED IN THE SW GULF OF MEXICO WAS NOTED ALONG THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND MEXICO BETWEEN 92W AND 108W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 08N128W TO 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 180 NM LINE 08N82W TO 06N94W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 103W AND 110W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 120 NM OF THE COAST OF MEXICO BETWEEN 93W AND 96W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 180 NM OF THE COAST OF MEXICO BETWEEN 100W AND 108W. ...DISCUSSION... A SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TO 30N124W TO A COL NEAR 28N131W. A MID LEVEL CYCLONE WAS CENTERED NEAR 23N138W AND MOVING W AT 10 KT. THE TROUGH WAS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT WHICH EXTENDED FROM 32N120W TO 28.5N138W. THIS FRONT WAS ONLY ACCOMPANIED BY A 15 KT W TO NW WIND SHIFT. AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS JUST W OF THE AREA NEAR 18N150W WITH AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING NE JUST TO THE W OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED OVER NORTHERN OLD MEXICO NEAR 30N105W WITH AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING SW TO NEAR 20N134W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE EXTREME NW GULF OF MEXICO SW ACROSS NORTHERN OLD MEXICO. THE UPPER TROUGH THEN TURNS ABRUPTLY SW INTO ANOTHER UPPER CYCLONE OVER THE PACIFIC NEAR 21N115W THAT IS MOVING W ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THIS TROUGH EFFECTIVELY SEPARATES THE UPPER FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE FROM ANOTHER BROAD RIDGE OVER THE TROPICS. THE PARENT UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS OVER TROPICAL STORM ARLENE IN THE SW GULF OF MEXICO WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING SW ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA THROUGH 14N116W TO BEYOND 15N128W WHERE THE FLOW MERGES WITH THE FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. DENSE MID TO UPPER LEVEL DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM TROPICAL STORM ARLENE AND THE PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED E PACIFIC CONVECTION FANS OUT OVER THE DISCUSSION AREA FROM 03N TO 23N BETWEEN 80W AND 110W. DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM PRIOR CONVECTION OVER NW OLD MEXICO CONCENTRATES INTO A NARROW PLUME STREAMING N OVER SE ARIZONA AND WESTERN NEW MEXICO BEFORE FANNING OUT ACROSS NORTHERN NEW MEXICO. THE UPPER LEVELS ARE VERY DRY TO THE N OF 15N W OF 110W INCLUDING WESTERN ARIZONA AND EXTREME SE CALIFORNIA...AND OVER THE DEEP TROPICS TO THE S OF 16N BETWEEN 114W AND 142W. ELSEWHERE AT THE SURFACE...A BROAD RIDGE WITH BROKEN TO OVERCAST STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS COVERS THE MARINE AREA TO THE N OF 15N W OF BAJA CALIFORNIA BRIDGING THROUGH THE COLD FRONT NOTED ABOVE. A SMALL AREA OF 20 KT NE TRADES ARE OBSERVED S OF THE RIDGE FROM 07N TO 11N W OF 135W...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH WITHIN 36 TO 48 HOURS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS TIGHTENED NW OF THE RIDGE RESULTING IN A SWATH OF NW 20 KT WINDS TO THE N OF 25N ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...AND EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH FRI. AS TROPICAL STORM ARLENE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO MOVES W OVER INTERIOR CENTRAL MEXICO SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20 KT OVER THE PACIFIC WATERS FROM 15N TO 20N BETWEEN 95W AND 105W ON THU...AND FROM 15N TO 20N BETWEEN 100W AND 107W ON FRI WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 8 FT. $$ COBB