000 AXPZ20 KNHC 291600 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC WED JUN 29 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1545 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS W ACROSS COSTA RICA TO 10N87W..THEN TURNS NW PARALLELING THE MEXICAN COAST TO NEAR 14N96W. THE MONSOON GYRE IS DISTORTED BETWEEN 97W AND 102W BY THE LARGE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM ARLENE LOCATED IN THE SW GULF OF MEXICO. THE MONSOON TROUGH RESUMES NEAR 19N105W...AND EXTENDS SW THROUGH A 1009 MB SURFACE LOW AT 12N112W AND ANOTHER SURFACE LOW FORMING NEAR 10N121W...WITH THE TROUGH CONTINUING SW TO 08N130W. LOW LEVEL WINDS INDICATE THAT THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE BEGINS AT 08N130W...WITH ITS AXIS CONTINUING W TO BEYOND 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED N OF 03N ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AND ACROSS THE GULF OF PANAMA EXTENDING FURTHER OFFSHORE TO WITHIN 60 NM OF 08.5N84.5W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OBSERVED TO THE S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS ROUGHLY WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE A LINE FROM 07N81W TO 06N94W...AND ALSO WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11N99W TO 08N107W...AND RESUMES ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10N115W TO 10N122W TO 07N130W AND ALONG THE ITCZ AXIS FROM 136W TO BEYOND 140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 180 NM OF THE COAST OF MEXICO BETWEEN 96W AND 107W...ACCOMPANIED BY MULTIPLE LIGHTNING STRIKES NEAR 19N105.7W. ...DISCUSSION... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TO 30N126W TO 27.5N130W THEN INTO AN UPPER CYCLONE AT 25N135W WITH A TROUGH THEN EXTENDING SW TO BEYOND 15N140W. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT EXTENDS ALONG 32N127W TO BEYOND 28.5N140W... BUT IS ONLY ACCOMPANIED BY A 15 KT W TO NW WIND SHIFT. AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS JUST W OF THE AREA AT 18N150W WITH AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING E INTO THE AREA TO A CREST AT 20N137W. AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED OVER NORTHERN OLD MEXICO AT 30N107W WITH AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING SW TO A CREST AT 18N132W. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS W ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AND OVER NE OLD MEXICO THROUGH AN UPPER CYCLONE AT 27N104W. THE UPPER TROUGH THEN TURNS ABRUPTLY SW INTO ANOTHER UPPER CYCLONE OVER THE PACIFIC AT 19N112W THAT IS MOVING W ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THIS TROUGH EFFECTIVELY SEPARATES THE UPPER FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE FROM ANOTHER BROAD RIDGE OVER THE TROPICS. THE PARENT UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS OVER THE TROPICAL STORM IN THE SW GULF OF MEXICO WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING SW ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA THROUGH 14N116W TO BEYOND 15N128W WHERE THE FLOW MERGES WITH THE FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. DENSE DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM THE TROPICAL STORM AND THE PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED E PACIFIC CONVECTION FANS OUT OVER THE DISCUSSION AREA FROM 03N TO 23N BETWEEN 80W AND 110W. THE DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM THE CONVECTION BETWEEN 120W AND 130W IS NOW SPREADING NW AROUND THE UPPER RIDGE TO NEAR 15N128W WHERE IT EVAPORATES. THE DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM THE ITCZ CONVECTION W OF 134W EVAPORATES WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF THE MATURE CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS. DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM PRIOR CONVECTION OVER NW OLD MEXICO CONCENTRATES INTO A NARROW PLUME STREAMING N OVER SE ARIZONA AND WESTERN NEW MEXICO BEFORE FANNING OUT ACROSS NORTHERN NEW MEXICO. THE UPPER LEVELS ARE VERY DRY TO THE N OF 16N W OF 114W INCLUDING OVER WESTERN ARIZONA AND EXTREME SE CALIFORNIA...AND OVER THE DEEP TROPICS TO THE S OF 16N BETWEEN 114W AND 142W. ELSEWHERE AT THE SURFACE...A BROAD RIDGE WITH BROKEN TO OVERCAST STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS COVERS THE MARINE AREA TO THE N OF 15N W OF BAJA CALIFORNIA BRIDGING THROUGH THE DECAYING COLD FRONT. A SMALL AREA OF 20 KT NE TRADES ARE OBSERVED S OF THE RIDGE FROM 07N TO 11N W OF 135W...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH ON THU. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS TIGHTENED NW OF THE RIDGE RESULTING IN A SWATH OF NW 15 TO 20 KT WINDS TO THE N OF 25N ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...AND EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH FRI. AS THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN GULF OF MEXICO MOVES W OVER INTERIOR CENTRAL MEXICO THE SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20 KT OVER THE PACIFIC WATERS IN THE AREA FROM 15N TO 20N BETWEEN 95W AND 105W ON THU...AND FROM 15N TO 20N BETWEEN 100W AND 108W ON FRI WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 8 FT. $$ NELSON 000 AXPZ20 KNHC 291600 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC WED JUN 29 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1545 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS W ACROSS COSTA RICA TO 10N87W..THEN TURNS NW PARALLELING THE MEXICAN COAST TO NEAR 14N96W. THE MONSOON GYRE IS DISTORTED BETWEEN 97W AND 102W BY THE LARGE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM ARLENE LOCATED IN THE SW GULF OF MEXICO. THE MONSOON TROUGH RESUMES NEAR 19N105W...AND EXTENDS SW THROUGH A 1009 MB SURFACE LOW AT 12N112W AND ANOTHER SURFACE LOW FORMING NEAR 10N121W...WITH THE TROUGH CONTINUING SW TO 08N130W. LOW LEVEL WINDS INDICATE THAT THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE BEGINS AT 08N130W...WITH ITS AXIS CONTINUING W TO BEYOND 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED N OF 03N ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AND ACROSS THE GULF OF PANAMA EXTENDING FURTHER OFFSHORE TO WITHIN 60 NM OF 08.5N84.5W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OBSERVED TO THE S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS ROUGHLY WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE A LINE FROM 07N81W TO 06N94W...AND ALSO WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11N99W TO 08N107W...AND RESUMES ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10N115W TO 10N122W TO 07N130W AND ALONG THE ITCZ AXIS FROM 136W TO BEYOND 140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 180 NM OF THE COAST OF MEXICO BETWEEN 96W AND 107W...ACCOMPANIED BY MULTIPLE LIGHTNING STRIKES NEAR 19N105.7W. ...DISCUSSION... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TO 30N126W TO 27.5N130W THEN INTO AN UPPER CYCLONE AT 25N135W WITH A TROUGH THEN EXTENDING SW TO BEYOND 15N140W. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT EXTENDS ALONG 32N127W TO BEYOND 28.5N140W... BUT IS ONLY ACCOMPANIED BY A 15 KT W TO NW WIND SHIFT. AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS JUST W OF THE AREA AT 18N150W WITH AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING E INTO THE AREA TO A CREST AT 20N137W. AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED OVER NORTHERN OLD MEXICO AT 30N107W WITH AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING SW TO A CREST AT 18N132W. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS W ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AND OVER NE OLD MEXICO THROUGH AN UPPER CYCLONE AT 27N104W. THE UPPER TROUGH THEN TURNS ABRUPTLY SW INTO ANOTHER UPPER CYCLONE OVER THE PACIFIC AT 19N112W THAT IS MOVING W ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THIS TROUGH EFFECTIVELY SEPARATES THE UPPER FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE FROM ANOTHER BROAD RIDGE OVER THE TROPICS. THE PARENT UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS OVER THE TROPICAL STORM IN THE SW GULF OF MEXICO WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING SW ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA THROUGH 14N116W TO BEYOND 15N128W WHERE THE FLOW MERGES WITH THE FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. DENSE DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM THE TROPICAL STORM AND THE PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED E PACIFIC CONVECTION FANS OUT OVER THE DISCUSSION AREA FROM 03N TO 23N BETWEEN 80W AND 110W. THE DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM THE CONVECTION BETWEEN 120W AND 130W IS NOW SPREADING NW AROUND THE UPPER RIDGE TO NEAR 15N128W WHERE IT EVAPORATES. THE DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM THE ITCZ CONVECTION W OF 134W EVAPORATES WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF THE MATURE CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS. DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM PRIOR CONVECTION OVER NW OLD MEXICO CONCENTRATES INTO A NARROW PLUME STREAMING N OVER SE ARIZONA AND WESTERN NEW MEXICO BEFORE FANNING OUT ACROSS NORTHERN NEW MEXICO. THE UPPER LEVELS ARE VERY DRY TO THE N OF 16N W OF 114W INCLUDING OVER WESTERN ARIZONA AND EXTREME SE CALIFORNIA...AND OVER THE DEEP TROPICS TO THE S OF 16N BETWEEN 114W AND 142W. ELSEWHERE AT THE SURFACE...A BROAD RIDGE WITH BROKEN TO OVERCAST STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS COVERS THE MARINE AREA TO THE N OF 15N W OF BAJA CALIFORNIA BRIDGING THROUGH THE DECAYING COLD FRONT. A SMALL AREA OF 20 KT NE TRADES ARE OBSERVED S OF THE RIDGE FROM 07N TO 11N W OF 135W...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH ON THU. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS TIGHTENED NW OF THE RIDGE RESULTING IN A SWATH OF NW 15 TO 20 KT WINDS TO THE N OF 25N ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...AND EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH FRI. AS THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN GULF OF MEXICO MOVES W OVER INTERIOR CENTRAL MEXICO THE SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20 KT OVER THE PACIFIC WATERS IN THE AREA FROM 15N TO 20N BETWEEN 95W AND 105W ON THU...AND FROM 15N TO 20N BETWEEN 100W AND 108W ON FRI WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 8 FT. $$ NELSON