000 AXPZ20 KNHC 290932 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC WED JUN 29 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0900 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 10N85W TO 16N95W THEN RESUMES NEAR 18N104W TO 13N110W TO 11N120W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 11N120W TO 07N130W TO 06N140W. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE MONSOON TROUGH E OF 96W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE BETWEEN 120W AND 127W. ...DISCUSSION... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS BREACHED THE NW PORTION OF THE AREA STEMMING FROM AN ABNORMALLY DEEP UPPER LOW FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR POSITIONED OVER CAPE MENDOCINO CALIFORNIA. THE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE UPPER LOW THROUGH 32N128W TO 28N140W. THIS UPPER TROUGH IS SUPPORTING AN UNUSUAL LATE JUNE SURFACE COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM NEAR POINT CONCEPTION CALIFORNIA THROUGH 30N129W TO 29N140W. THIS FRONT WILL DISSIPATE INTO A SHEAR LINE/AXIS BETWEEN 24 AND 48 HOURS WHILE USHERING IN LITTLE OTHER THAN A WIND SHIFT ACROSS THE WATERS BEHIND IT. AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE LIES OVER 19N127W AND IS DRIFTING WESTWARD EXTENDING AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS W-NW TO NEAR 21N140W. MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY ACROSS THE AREA S OF 28N W OF 130W AND N OF 15N BETWEEN 115W AN 130W. DIFFLUENT FLOW S OF THIS ANTICYCLONE IS ENHANCING CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ AS DESCRIBED IN THE SECTION ABOVE. AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 21N111W SEPARATES THE ABOVE MENTIONED ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION FROM ANOTHER ANTICYCLONE OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO CENTERED OVER 20N100W. DIFFLUENT UPPER LEVEL FLOW S OF THIS ANTICYLONE IS ALSO ENHANCING CONVECTION ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH AS WELL AS OVER INTERIOR PORTIONS OF MEXICO AND GUATEMALA...WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH MAY PRODUCE LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES. UPPER LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW ON THE SE AND S PERIPHERY OF THIS ANTICYCLONE IS TRANSPORTING MOISTURE AND DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM THIS CONVECTION TO THE SW-W. ELSEWHERE AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK AND BROAD RIDGE COVERS THE AREA FROM 16N TO 26N W OF 120W. RECENT SCATTEROMETER PASSES CONTINUED TO INDICATE A SMALL AREA OF 20 KT TRADES FROM 07N TO 11N W OF 135W. EXPECT THESE TRADES TO DIMINISH DURING THE NEXT 6 HOURS OR SO. THE PRES GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN NEAR THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA REGION LATER WED AND WED NIGHT WITH STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW PRES SLIDING S THROUGH WESTERN MEXICO AND RIDGING TIGTHENING W OF THE PENINSULA BEHIND THE ABOVE MENTIONED COLD FRONT. EXPECT 20 KT NW WINDS N OF 25N BETWEEN THE W COAST OF THE PENINSULA AND 118W. THE GRADIENT WILL ALSO TIGHTEN NEAR THE SW COAST OF MEXICO THU WITH ANOTHER AREA OF 20 KT W-NW WINDS EXPECTED FROM 15N TO 20N BETWEEN 110W AND 118W. $$ LEWITSKY 000 AXPZ20 KNHC 290932 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC WED JUN 29 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0900 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 10N85W TO 16N95W THEN RESUMES NEAR 18N104W TO 13N110W TO 11N120W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 11N120W TO 07N130W TO 06N140W. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE MONSOON TROUGH E OF 96W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE BETWEEN 120W AND 127W. ...DISCUSSION... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS BREACHED THE NW PORTION OF THE AREA STEMMING FROM AN ABNORMALLY DEEP UPPER LOW FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR POSITIONED OVER CAPE MENDOCINO CALIFORNIA. THE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE UPPER LOW THROUGH 32N128W TO 28N140W. THIS UPPER TROUGH IS SUPPORTING AN UNUSUAL LATE JUNE SURFACE COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM NEAR POINT CONCEPTION CALIFORNIA THROUGH 30N129W TO 29N140W. THIS FRONT WILL DISSIPATE INTO A SHEAR LINE/AXIS BETWEEN 24 AND 48 HOURS WHILE USHERING IN LITTLE OTHER THAN A WIND SHIFT ACROSS THE WATERS BEHIND IT. AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE LIES OVER 19N127W AND IS DRIFTING WESTWARD EXTENDING AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS W-NW TO NEAR 21N140W. MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY ACROSS THE AREA S OF 28N W OF 130W AND N OF 15N BETWEEN 115W AN 130W. DIFFLUENT FLOW S OF THIS ANTICYCLONE IS ENHANCING CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ AS DESCRIBED IN THE SECTION ABOVE. AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 21N111W SEPARATES THE ABOVE MENTIONED ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION FROM ANOTHER ANTICYCLONE OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO CENTERED OVER 20N100W. DIFFLUENT UPPER LEVEL FLOW S OF THIS ANTICYLONE IS ALSO ENHANCING CONVECTION ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH AS WELL AS OVER INTERIOR PORTIONS OF MEXICO AND GUATEMALA...WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH MAY PRODUCE LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES. UPPER LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW ON THE SE AND S PERIPHERY OF THIS ANTICYCLONE IS TRANSPORTING MOISTURE AND DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM THIS CONVECTION TO THE SW-W. ELSEWHERE AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK AND BROAD RIDGE COVERS THE AREA FROM 16N TO 26N W OF 120W. RECENT SCATTEROMETER PASSES CONTINUED TO INDICATE A SMALL AREA OF 20 KT TRADES FROM 07N TO 11N W OF 135W. EXPECT THESE TRADES TO DIMINISH DURING THE NEXT 6 HOURS OR SO. THE PRES GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN NEAR THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA REGION LATER WED AND WED NIGHT WITH STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW PRES SLIDING S THROUGH WESTERN MEXICO AND RIDGING TIGTHENING W OF THE PENINSULA BEHIND THE ABOVE MENTIONED COLD FRONT. EXPECT 20 KT NW WINDS N OF 25N BETWEEN THE W COAST OF THE PENINSULA AND 118W. THE GRADIENT WILL ALSO TIGHTEN NEAR THE SW COAST OF MEXICO THU WITH ANOTHER AREA OF 20 KT W-NW WINDS EXPECTED FROM 15N TO 20N BETWEEN 110W AND 118W. $$ LEWITSKY