000
AXPZ20 KNHC 282127
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC TUE JUN 28 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH 15N93W 15N105W 7N127W. THE INTERTROPICAL 
CONVERGENCE ZONE 7N127W 6N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED 
STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 80 NM N OF AXIS FROM 123W-126W.

...DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION 
AREA WITH AXIS FROM 32N129W TO 29N140W. AN UPPER LEVEL 
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 22N125W. A RIDGE 
EXTENDS FROM THE ANTICYCLONE NE TO CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA.
MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY STABLE AIR AT THE MIDDLE 
AND UPPER LEVELS COVERS THE AREA W OF 126W AND N OF 20N BETWEEN 
110W-126W.

AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 20N110W SEPARATES THE 
ABOVE MENTIONED ANTICYCLONE CIRCULATION FROM ANOTHER 
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO CENTERED NEAR 
18N96W. DIFFLUENT UPPER LEVEL FLOW S OF THE ANTICYLONE IS 
ENHANCING NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION FROM 8N-13N BETWEEN 
97W-103W.

SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE AREA N OF 15N W OF 115W. BROKEN 
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE WITHIN THE RIDGE. A SMALL AREA OF 20 KT 
NE TRADES S OF THE RIDGE FROM 5N-10 W OF 135W. THESE WINDS ARE 
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TONIGHT. THE PRES GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN NW 
OF THE RIDGE RESULTING IN A SWATH OF NW 15-20 KT WINDS ALONG THE 
NORTHERN COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA LATE WED INTO 
THU.

$$
DGS



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 282127
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC TUE JUN 28 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH 15N93W 15N105W 7N127W. THE INTERTROPICAL 
CONVERGENCE ZONE 7N127W 6N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED 
STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 80 NM N OF AXIS FROM 123W-126W.

...DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION 
AREA WITH AXIS FROM 32N129W TO 29N140W. AN UPPER LEVEL 
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 22N125W. A RIDGE 
EXTENDS FROM THE ANTICYCLONE NE TO CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA.
MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY STABLE AIR AT THE MIDDLE 
AND UPPER LEVELS COVERS THE AREA W OF 126W AND N OF 20N BETWEEN 
110W-126W.

AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 20N110W SEPARATES THE 
ABOVE MENTIONED ANTICYCLONE CIRCULATION FROM ANOTHER 
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO CENTERED NEAR 
18N96W. DIFFLUENT UPPER LEVEL FLOW S OF THE ANTICYLONE IS 
ENHANCING NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION FROM 8N-13N BETWEEN 
97W-103W.

SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE AREA N OF 15N W OF 115W. BROKEN 
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE WITHIN THE RIDGE. A SMALL AREA OF 20 KT 
NE TRADES S OF THE RIDGE FROM 5N-10 W OF 135W. THESE WINDS ARE 
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TONIGHT. THE PRES GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN NW 
OF THE RIDGE RESULTING IN A SWATH OF NW 15-20 KT WINDS ALONG THE 
NORTHERN COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA LATE WED INTO 
THU.

$$
DGS