000 AXPZ20 KNHC 281550 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC TUE JUN 28 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1545 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS SW ACROSS PANAMA TO NEAR 07N83W THEN TURNS NW TO TO 14N100W...THEN TURNS SW TO NEAR 05N130W WHERE LOW LEVEL WINDS INDICATE THAT THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE BEGINS...WITH ITS AXIS CONTINUING NW TO BEYOND 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FLARING OVER PANAMA AND EXTENDS SW OVER THE PACIFIC WITH WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 07.5N78W TO 06N85W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS NOTED S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH IN THE AREA BOUNDED BY 09N TO 12N BETWEEN 96W AND 102W. SMALL CLUSTERS OF STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN ROUGHLY 60 NM OF 09N113W...10N120W AND ALSO 09N124W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH IN THE FROM 12N TO THE COAST OF MEXICO BETWEEN 92W AND 96W BUT IS CURRENTLY IN A WEAKENING TREND. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALSO NOTED WITHIN 240 NM OF MEXICAN COAST BETWEEN 98W AND 106W...ACCOMPANIED BY MULTIPLE LIGHTNING STRIKES. ...DISCUSSION... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS MOVED INTO THE NW PORTION WITH ITS AXIS FROM 32N127W TO 28N140W AND IS ACCOMPANIED BY A BAND OF UPPER MOISTURE OBSERVED WITHIN 150 NM NW OF THE TROUGH AXIS. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT IS ALONG 33N BETWEEN 127W AND 140W AND IS ONLY ACCOMPANIED BY A 15 KT W TO NW WIND SHIFT. AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED OVER THE BORDER OF TEXAS AND NEW MEXICO WITH AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING SW TO A CREST AT 14N137W. AN EMBEDDED MID TO UPPER CYCLONE IS NOTED WITHIN THE BROAD RIDGE NEAR 22N120W AND IS MOVING W WITH TIME. ANOTHER UPPER CYCLONE IS NOTED OVER THE DEEP TROPICS AT 07N140W. THE UPPER LEVELS ARE VERY DRY TO THE NW OF A LINE FROM 27N100W TO 17N126W AND S OF 17N BETWEEN 126W AND 140W. AN UPPER TROUGH DISSECTS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND CONTINUES ACROSS OLD MEXICO ALONG 20N96W INTO AN UPPER CYCLONES OVER THE PACIFIC AT 18N108W AND 12N113W AND 05N128W. ANOTHER UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...WITH A BROAD RIDGE DOMINATING THE TROPICAL E PACIFIC E OF 100W WITH THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED UPPER TROUGH SEPARATING THIS ANTICYCLONIC FLOW FROM THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE SUBTROPICS. DENSE DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM THE PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED CONVECTION FANS OUT OVER THE AREA FROM 05N TO 20N BETWEEN 110W AND 80W. ELSEWHERE AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE EXTENDS ALONG 29N140W TO 18N115W. A SMALL AREA OF 20 KT NE TRADES ARE OBSERVED S OF THE RIDGE FROM 09N TO 12N W OF 136W...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TODAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN NW OF THE RIDGE RESULTING IN A SWATH OF NW 15 TO 20 KT WINDS ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA LATE WED INTO THU. SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS FEEDING INTO THE E PORTION OF THE MONSOON TROUGH HAVE DIMINISHED...HOWEVER COMBINED SEAS CONTINUE TO 9 FT IN THE SW SWELL IN THE MARINE AREA S OF 15N BETWEEN 92W AND 102W. THIS SW SWELL IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DECAY WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO LESS THAN 8 FT THROUGH TONIGHT. $$ NELSON 000 AXPZ20 KNHC 281550 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC TUE JUN 28 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1545 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS SW ACROSS PANAMA TO NEAR 07N83W THEN TURNS NW TO TO 14N100W...THEN TURNS SW TO NEAR 05N130W WHERE LOW LEVEL WINDS INDICATE THAT THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE BEGINS...WITH ITS AXIS CONTINUING NW TO BEYOND 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FLARING OVER PANAMA AND EXTENDS SW OVER THE PACIFIC WITH WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 07.5N78W TO 06N85W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS NOTED S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH IN THE AREA BOUNDED BY 09N TO 12N BETWEEN 96W AND 102W. SMALL CLUSTERS OF STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN ROUGHLY 60 NM OF 09N113W...10N120W AND ALSO 09N124W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH IN THE FROM 12N TO THE COAST OF MEXICO BETWEEN 92W AND 96W BUT IS CURRENTLY IN A WEAKENING TREND. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALSO NOTED WITHIN 240 NM OF MEXICAN COAST BETWEEN 98W AND 106W...ACCOMPANIED BY MULTIPLE LIGHTNING STRIKES. ...DISCUSSION... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS MOVED INTO THE NW PORTION WITH ITS AXIS FROM 32N127W TO 28N140W AND IS ACCOMPANIED BY A BAND OF UPPER MOISTURE OBSERVED WITHIN 150 NM NW OF THE TROUGH AXIS. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT IS ALONG 33N BETWEEN 127W AND 140W AND IS ONLY ACCOMPANIED BY A 15 KT W TO NW WIND SHIFT. AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED OVER THE BORDER OF TEXAS AND NEW MEXICO WITH AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING SW TO A CREST AT 14N137W. AN EMBEDDED MID TO UPPER CYCLONE IS NOTED WITHIN THE BROAD RIDGE NEAR 22N120W AND IS MOVING W WITH TIME. ANOTHER UPPER CYCLONE IS NOTED OVER THE DEEP TROPICS AT 07N140W. THE UPPER LEVELS ARE VERY DRY TO THE NW OF A LINE FROM 27N100W TO 17N126W AND S OF 17N BETWEEN 126W AND 140W. AN UPPER TROUGH DISSECTS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND CONTINUES ACROSS OLD MEXICO ALONG 20N96W INTO AN UPPER CYCLONES OVER THE PACIFIC AT 18N108W AND 12N113W AND 05N128W. ANOTHER UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...WITH A BROAD RIDGE DOMINATING THE TROPICAL E PACIFIC E OF 100W WITH THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED UPPER TROUGH SEPARATING THIS ANTICYCLONIC FLOW FROM THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE SUBTROPICS. DENSE DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM THE PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED CONVECTION FANS OUT OVER THE AREA FROM 05N TO 20N BETWEEN 110W AND 80W. ELSEWHERE AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE EXTENDS ALONG 29N140W TO 18N115W. A SMALL AREA OF 20 KT NE TRADES ARE OBSERVED S OF THE RIDGE FROM 09N TO 12N W OF 136W...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TODAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN NW OF THE RIDGE RESULTING IN A SWATH OF NW 15 TO 20 KT WINDS ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA LATE WED INTO THU. SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS FEEDING INTO THE E PORTION OF THE MONSOON TROUGH HAVE DIMINISHED...HOWEVER COMBINED SEAS CONTINUE TO 9 FT IN THE SW SWELL IN THE MARINE AREA S OF 15N BETWEEN 92W AND 102W. THIS SW SWELL IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DECAY WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO LESS THAN 8 FT THROUGH TONIGHT. $$ NELSON