000 AXPZ20 KNHC 280937 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC TUE JUN 28 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0900 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 08N78W TO 14N94W TO 11N110W TO 09N125W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N125W TO 10N134W TO 09N140W. NUMEROUS MODERATE AND SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 93W AND 100W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 80W AND 82W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 107W AND 110W. ...DISCUSSION... THE MAJORITY OF THE DISCUSSION AREA CONTINUES TO BE DOMINATED BY EXPANSIVE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ANCHORED BY TWO MEAN ANTICYCLONES...ONE OVER FAR NW MEXICO AND THE OTHER NEAR 22N118W. AN ASSOCIATED UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS SW FROM THE FIRST ANTICYCLONE TO THE SECOND...AND THEN W TO 22N140W. SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS EXTENSIVE MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE ENCOMPASSING THE ENTIRE AREA S OF 30N W OF 122W...AND ALSO N OF 18N E OF 122W AS DEPICTED BY THE FIELD OF SCATTERED TO BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE ANTICYCLONES DUE TO UPPER LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW. THIS EASTERLY FLOW BECOMES DIFFLUENT W OF AROUND 110W...WHILE TRANSPORTING UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND DEBRIS CLOUDINESS FROM CONVECTION OVER INTERIOR SOUTHERN MEXICO AND GUATEMALA. PLENTY OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS FUELING THE EVER PRESENT ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY PRESENT OVER THOSE LOCATIONS. THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS ALSO BEING ENHANCED BY THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF A TROPICAL WAVE WHICH IS JUST TO THE NE IN THE FAR W GULF OF MEXICO. THIS WAVE IS ALSO INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO HELPING TO MAINTAIN THE CONVECTION. EXPECT VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH MAY RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES...ALONG WITH AND GUSTY WINDS OVER THE INLAND LOCATIONS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS INTRUDING INTO THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION WATERS STEMMING FROM A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL LOW OFFSHORE OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THIS LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH ARE ABNORMALLY DEEP FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE TROUGH CONTINUES WELL BEYOND THE REGION TO ANOTHER UPPER LOW LOCATED JUST N OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. THESE UPPER FEATURES ARE SUPPORTING AN UNUSUAL EARLY SUMMER COLD FRONT FROM 32N137W TO 30N140W. AS THE UPPER TROUGH AND LOW SHIFT E THROUGH SE THE COLD FRONT WILL CLIP THROUGH THE NORTHERN WATERS TODAY AND TONIGHT...DISSIPATING BY LATE WED. THE FRONT WILL BE ON THE WEAK SIDE S OF 32N WITH LITTLE IMPACT ON WINDS AND SEAS. ELSEWHERE AT THE SURFACE...BROAD AND LOOSE HIGH PRES RIDGING COVERS THE AREA GENERALLY TO THE N OF 16N AND W OF 119W. EARLIER SCATTEROMETER PASSES CAPTURED A SMALL AREA OF 20 KT TRADES FROM 09N TO 12N W OF 136W. THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH LATER THIS MORNING. THE PRES GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN W OF THE FAR NORTHERN COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA LATE WED INTO THU AS TROUGHING OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA SHIFTS SLIGHTLY WESTWARD. THIS WILL RESULT IN NORTHERLY 20 KT WINDS N OF 28N E OF 119W. SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW FEEDING INTO THE E PORTION OF THE MONSOON TROUGH HAS DIMINISHED ALTHOUGH LINGERING 8 FT SEAS IN SW SWELL REMAIN FROM 08N TO 13N BETWEEN 93W AND 110W. THIS SWELL WILL DECAY TO LESS THAN 8 FT LATER THIS MORNING. $$ LEWITSKY 000 AXPZ20 KNHC 280937 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC TUE JUN 28 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0900 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 08N78W TO 14N94W TO 11N110W TO 09N125W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N125W TO 10N134W TO 09N140W. NUMEROUS MODERATE AND SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 93W AND 100W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 80W AND 82W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 107W AND 110W. ...DISCUSSION... THE MAJORITY OF THE DISCUSSION AREA CONTINUES TO BE DOMINATED BY EXPANSIVE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ANCHORED BY TWO MEAN ANTICYCLONES...ONE OVER FAR NW MEXICO AND THE OTHER NEAR 22N118W. AN ASSOCIATED UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS SW FROM THE FIRST ANTICYCLONE TO THE SECOND...AND THEN W TO 22N140W. SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS EXTENSIVE MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE ENCOMPASSING THE ENTIRE AREA S OF 30N W OF 122W...AND ALSO N OF 18N E OF 122W AS DEPICTED BY THE FIELD OF SCATTERED TO BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE ANTICYCLONES DUE TO UPPER LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW. THIS EASTERLY FLOW BECOMES DIFFLUENT W OF AROUND 110W...WHILE TRANSPORTING UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND DEBRIS CLOUDINESS FROM CONVECTION OVER INTERIOR SOUTHERN MEXICO AND GUATEMALA. PLENTY OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS FUELING THE EVER PRESENT ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY PRESENT OVER THOSE LOCATIONS. THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS ALSO BEING ENHANCED BY THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF A TROPICAL WAVE WHICH IS JUST TO THE NE IN THE FAR W GULF OF MEXICO. THIS WAVE IS ALSO INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO HELPING TO MAINTAIN THE CONVECTION. EXPECT VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH MAY RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES...ALONG WITH AND GUSTY WINDS OVER THE INLAND LOCATIONS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS INTRUDING INTO THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION WATERS STEMMING FROM A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL LOW OFFSHORE OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THIS LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH ARE ABNORMALLY DEEP FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE TROUGH CONTINUES WELL BEYOND THE REGION TO ANOTHER UPPER LOW LOCATED JUST N OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. THESE UPPER FEATURES ARE SUPPORTING AN UNUSUAL EARLY SUMMER COLD FRONT FROM 32N137W TO 30N140W. AS THE UPPER TROUGH AND LOW SHIFT E THROUGH SE THE COLD FRONT WILL CLIP THROUGH THE NORTHERN WATERS TODAY AND TONIGHT...DISSIPATING BY LATE WED. THE FRONT WILL BE ON THE WEAK SIDE S OF 32N WITH LITTLE IMPACT ON WINDS AND SEAS. ELSEWHERE AT THE SURFACE...BROAD AND LOOSE HIGH PRES RIDGING COVERS THE AREA GENERALLY TO THE N OF 16N AND W OF 119W. EARLIER SCATTEROMETER PASSES CAPTURED A SMALL AREA OF 20 KT TRADES FROM 09N TO 12N W OF 136W. THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH LATER THIS MORNING. THE PRES GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN W OF THE FAR NORTHERN COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA LATE WED INTO THU AS TROUGHING OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA SHIFTS SLIGHTLY WESTWARD. THIS WILL RESULT IN NORTHERLY 20 KT WINDS N OF 28N E OF 119W. SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW FEEDING INTO THE E PORTION OF THE MONSOON TROUGH HAS DIMINISHED ALTHOUGH LINGERING 8 FT SEAS IN SW SWELL REMAIN FROM 08N TO 13N BETWEEN 93W AND 110W. THIS SWELL WILL DECAY TO LESS THAN 8 FT LATER THIS MORNING. $$ LEWITSKY