000 AXPZ20 KNHC 280329 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC TUE JUN 28 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0300 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 11N86W NW TO 15N96W TO 11N113W TO 9N124W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 9N124W TO 10N134W TO 8N140W. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM S OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 106W-110W. ...DISCUSSION... THE MAJORITY OF THE DISCUSSION AREA CONTINUES TO BE DOMINATED BY EXPANSIVE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW...ANCHORED BY TWO ANTICYCLONES...ONE OVER FAR NW MEXICO AND THE OTHER ONE NEAR 21N115W MOVING WNW. AN ASSOCIATED UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS SW FROM THE FIRST ANTICYCLONE TO THE SECOND AND THEN SW AND W TO 18N140W. SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS EXTENSIVE MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE ENCOMPASSING THE ENTIRE AREA FROM 6N-15N W OF 121W...AND ALSO THE AREA N OF 15N E OF 121W...AS DEPICTED BY THE FIELD OF BROKEN TO SCATTERED STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE NW AND N OF THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW. UPPER LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE ANTICYCLONES BECOMES DIFFLUENT W OF ABOUT 108W. AT THE SAME TIME...IT CONTINUES TO TRANSPORT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND DEBRIS CLOUDINESS WESTWARD FROM RECENTLY FLARED UP CONVECTION NEAR AND S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AS STATED ABOVE...AS WELL AS FROM NUMEROUS STRONG TSTM ACTIVITY CURRENTLY OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO...OVER GUATEMALA AND IN THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL SECTIONS OF HONDURAS WHERE PLENTY OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS FUELING THE EVER PRESENT ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY PRESENT OVER THOSE LOCATIONS. THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS ALSO BEING ENHANCED BY THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF A TROPICAL WAVE THAT HAS MOVED INLAND SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO...AND EXTENDS SWD TO JUST N OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. THE WAVE IS ALSO INTERACTING WITH A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO HELPING TO INITIATE THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. EXPECT VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS WITH SCATTERED TO STRONG TSTMS ACTIVITY...PRIMARILY JUST INLAND THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AND ACROSS EASTERN MEXICO AND WESTERN GUATEMALA. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM JUST W OF THE PACIFIC U.S. SW TO JUST INTO THE FAR NW CORNER OF THE AREA AS NOTED ON SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THE TROUGH CONTINUES WELL BEYOND THE REGION TO N OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. A RATHER VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL LOW N OF THE AREA NEAR 42N131W IS RAPIDLY DROPPING SSE... AND EXTENDS ITS ASSOCIATED AND RATHER UNUSUAL EARLY SUMMER COLD FRONT THROUGH 32N137W TO JUST NW OF THE AREA. WITH THE UPPER LOW DROPPING SSE...THE COLD FRONT WILL RESPOND BY MOVING ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN WATERS TUE INTO EARLY WED. THE FRONT WILL BE ON THE WEAK SIDE WITH LITTLE REGIONAL IMPACT ON WINDS AND SEAS. ELSEWHERE AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRES RIDGING COVERS THE AREA GENERALLY TO THE N OF 15N AND W OF 121W. THE EARLIER SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW THAT WAS FEEDING INTO THE MONSOON TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PORTION HAVE DIMINISHED TO LESS THAN 20 KT...BUT SEAS TO 8 FT IN A CROSS-EQUATORIAL SW SWELL ARE STILL POSSIBLE FROM 8N-14N BETWEEN 94W-115W. THE SEAS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 8 FT WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERIC SWELL SOURCE REGION BECOMES LESS OF AN INFLUENTIAL FACTOR IN SENDING ADDITIONAL SWELLS INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA. $$ AGUIRRE 000 AXPZ20 KNHC 280329 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC TUE JUN 28 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0300 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 11N86W NW TO 15N96W TO 11N113W TO 9N124W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 9N124W TO 10N134W TO 8N140W. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM S OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 106W-110W. ...DISCUSSION... THE MAJORITY OF THE DISCUSSION AREA CONTINUES TO BE DOMINATED BY EXPANSIVE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW...ANCHORED BY TWO ANTICYCLONES...ONE OVER FAR NW MEXICO AND THE OTHER ONE NEAR 21N115W MOVING WNW. AN ASSOCIATED UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS SW FROM THE FIRST ANTICYCLONE TO THE SECOND AND THEN SW AND W TO 18N140W. SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS EXTENSIVE MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE ENCOMPASSING THE ENTIRE AREA FROM 6N-15N W OF 121W...AND ALSO THE AREA N OF 15N E OF 121W...AS DEPICTED BY THE FIELD OF BROKEN TO SCATTERED STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE NW AND N OF THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW. UPPER LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE ANTICYCLONES BECOMES DIFFLUENT W OF ABOUT 108W. AT THE SAME TIME...IT CONTINUES TO TRANSPORT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND DEBRIS CLOUDINESS WESTWARD FROM RECENTLY FLARED UP CONVECTION NEAR AND S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AS STATED ABOVE...AS WELL AS FROM NUMEROUS STRONG TSTM ACTIVITY CURRENTLY OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO...OVER GUATEMALA AND IN THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL SECTIONS OF HONDURAS WHERE PLENTY OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS FUELING THE EVER PRESENT ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY PRESENT OVER THOSE LOCATIONS. THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS ALSO BEING ENHANCED BY THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF A TROPICAL WAVE THAT HAS MOVED INLAND SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO...AND EXTENDS SWD TO JUST N OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. THE WAVE IS ALSO INTERACTING WITH A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO HELPING TO INITIATE THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. EXPECT VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS WITH SCATTERED TO STRONG TSTMS ACTIVITY...PRIMARILY JUST INLAND THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AND ACROSS EASTERN MEXICO AND WESTERN GUATEMALA. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM JUST W OF THE PACIFIC U.S. SW TO JUST INTO THE FAR NW CORNER OF THE AREA AS NOTED ON SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THE TROUGH CONTINUES WELL BEYOND THE REGION TO N OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. A RATHER VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL LOW N OF THE AREA NEAR 42N131W IS RAPIDLY DROPPING SSE... AND EXTENDS ITS ASSOCIATED AND RATHER UNUSUAL EARLY SUMMER COLD FRONT THROUGH 32N137W TO JUST NW OF THE AREA. WITH THE UPPER LOW DROPPING SSE...THE COLD FRONT WILL RESPOND BY MOVING ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN WATERS TUE INTO EARLY WED. THE FRONT WILL BE ON THE WEAK SIDE WITH LITTLE REGIONAL IMPACT ON WINDS AND SEAS. ELSEWHERE AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRES RIDGING COVERS THE AREA GENERALLY TO THE N OF 15N AND W OF 121W. THE EARLIER SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW THAT WAS FEEDING INTO THE MONSOON TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PORTION HAVE DIMINISHED TO LESS THAN 20 KT...BUT SEAS TO 8 FT IN A CROSS-EQUATORIAL SW SWELL ARE STILL POSSIBLE FROM 8N-14N BETWEEN 94W-115W. THE SEAS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 8 FT WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERIC SWELL SOURCE REGION BECOMES LESS OF AN INFLUENTIAL FACTOR IN SENDING ADDITIONAL SWELLS INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA. $$ AGUIRRE