000 AXPZ20 KNHC 272206 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC MON JUN 27 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2145 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 11N86W NW TO 15N100W TO 12N113W TO 9N124W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 9N124W TO 10N134W TO 7N140W. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM S OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 105W-109W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM N OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 93W-97W. ...DISCUSSION... THE MAJORITY OF THE DISCUSSION AREA CONTINUES TO BE DOMINATED BY EXPANSIVE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW...ANCHORED BY TWO ANTICYCLONES...ONE OVER FAR NW MEXICO AND THE OTHER NOW DRIFTING WESTWARD LOCATED SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA NEAR 20N115W. AN ASSOCIATED UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS SW FROM THE FIRST ANTICYCLONE TO THE SECOND AND THEN SW TO W TO 17N140W. SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS EXTENSIVE MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE ENCOMPASSING THE ENTIRE AREA W OF 120W AND ALSO THE AREA N OF 20N E OF 120W...AS DEPICTED BY THE FIELD OF BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE W PERIPHERY OF THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW. UPPER LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE ANTICYCLONES CONTINUES TO TRANSPORT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND DEBRIS CLOUDINESS FROM CONVECTION NEAR AND S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AS STATED ABOVE...AS WELL AS FROM WIDESPREAD STRONG TSTM ACTIVITY CURRENTLY ACTIVE OVER CENTRAL AND SE MEXICO AND GUATEMALA WHERE PLENTY OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS FUELING THE EVER PRESENT ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY. THIS ACTIVITY IS ALSO BEING ENHANCED BY THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF A TROPICAL WAVE THAT OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE EXTENDING SWD TO JUST N OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THAT IS INTERACTING WITH A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. EXPECT VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS WITH SCATTERED TO STRONG TSTMS ACTIVITY...PRIMARILY JUST INLAND THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AND ACROSS EASTERN MEXICO AND WESTERN GUATEMALA. AN ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT HAD BEEN JUST NW OF THE DISCUSSION AREA HAS RETREATED WESTWARD NOW LOCATED N OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THIS LOW NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE FAR NW CORNER TO NEAR 32N136W. A RATHER VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL LOW N OF THE AREA NEAR 44N133W IS DROPPING SE QUICKLY...AND WILL PUSH A TROUGH TO THE NORTHERN WATERS WITH THE WEAK ATTENDANT SURFACE AND RATHER UNUSUAL EARLY SUMMER COLD FRONT BEING DRAGGED ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN WATERS TUE INTO EARLY WED WHILE WEAKENING. THIS FEATURE WILL HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON WINDS AND SEAS IN THE DISCUSSION AREA. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRES RIDGING COVERS THE AREA GENERALLY TO THE N OF 15N AND W OF 121W. THE ABOVE MENTIONED COLD FRONT IS JUST CROSSING INTO THE FAR NW CORNER OF THE AREA. A SMALL AREA OF A SLIGHTLY TIGHTER GRADIENT OVER THE NW SECTION OF THE AREA IS ALLOWING FOR NE WINDS TO 20 KT WITH SEAS TO 8 FT FROM 20N-28N BETWEEN 129W-135W. THESE WINDS...HOWEVER...ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KT IN ABOUT 12 HOURS. THE EARLIER SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW THAT WAS FEEDING INTO THE MONSOON TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PORTION HAVE DIMINISHED TO LESS THAN 20 KT...BUT SEAS TO 8 FT IN A CROSS-EQUATORIAL SW SWELL ARE STILL POSSIBLE FROM 8N-14N BETWEEN 94W-115W. THE SEAS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 8 FT WITHIN THE NEXT 18 HOURS AS THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERIC SWELL SOURCE REGION BECOMES LESS OF AN INFLUENTIAL FACTOR IN THE GENERATION OF ADDITIONAL SWELLS TO AFFECT THE REGION. $$ AGUIRRE 000 AXPZ20 KNHC 272206 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC MON JUN 27 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2145 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 11N86W NW TO 15N100W TO 12N113W TO 9N124W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 9N124W TO 10N134W TO 7N140W. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM S OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 105W-109W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM N OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 93W-97W. ...DISCUSSION... THE MAJORITY OF THE DISCUSSION AREA CONTINUES TO BE DOMINATED BY EXPANSIVE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW...ANCHORED BY TWO ANTICYCLONES...ONE OVER FAR NW MEXICO AND THE OTHER NOW DRIFTING WESTWARD LOCATED SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA NEAR 20N115W. AN ASSOCIATED UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS SW FROM THE FIRST ANTICYCLONE TO THE SECOND AND THEN SW TO W TO 17N140W. SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS EXTENSIVE MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE ENCOMPASSING THE ENTIRE AREA W OF 120W AND ALSO THE AREA N OF 20N E OF 120W...AS DEPICTED BY THE FIELD OF BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE W PERIPHERY OF THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW. UPPER LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE ANTICYCLONES CONTINUES TO TRANSPORT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND DEBRIS CLOUDINESS FROM CONVECTION NEAR AND S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AS STATED ABOVE...AS WELL AS FROM WIDESPREAD STRONG TSTM ACTIVITY CURRENTLY ACTIVE OVER CENTRAL AND SE MEXICO AND GUATEMALA WHERE PLENTY OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS FUELING THE EVER PRESENT ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY. THIS ACTIVITY IS ALSO BEING ENHANCED BY THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF A TROPICAL WAVE THAT OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE EXTENDING SWD TO JUST N OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THAT IS INTERACTING WITH A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. EXPECT VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS WITH SCATTERED TO STRONG TSTMS ACTIVITY...PRIMARILY JUST INLAND THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AND ACROSS EASTERN MEXICO AND WESTERN GUATEMALA. AN ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT HAD BEEN JUST NW OF THE DISCUSSION AREA HAS RETREATED WESTWARD NOW LOCATED N OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THIS LOW NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE FAR NW CORNER TO NEAR 32N136W. A RATHER VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL LOW N OF THE AREA NEAR 44N133W IS DROPPING SE QUICKLY...AND WILL PUSH A TROUGH TO THE NORTHERN WATERS WITH THE WEAK ATTENDANT SURFACE AND RATHER UNUSUAL EARLY SUMMER COLD FRONT BEING DRAGGED ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN WATERS TUE INTO EARLY WED WHILE WEAKENING. THIS FEATURE WILL HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON WINDS AND SEAS IN THE DISCUSSION AREA. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRES RIDGING COVERS THE AREA GENERALLY TO THE N OF 15N AND W OF 121W. THE ABOVE MENTIONED COLD FRONT IS JUST CROSSING INTO THE FAR NW CORNER OF THE AREA. A SMALL AREA OF A SLIGHTLY TIGHTER GRADIENT OVER THE NW SECTION OF THE AREA IS ALLOWING FOR NE WINDS TO 20 KT WITH SEAS TO 8 FT FROM 20N-28N BETWEEN 129W-135W. THESE WINDS...HOWEVER...ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KT IN ABOUT 12 HOURS. THE EARLIER SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW THAT WAS FEEDING INTO THE MONSOON TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PORTION HAVE DIMINISHED TO LESS THAN 20 KT...BUT SEAS TO 8 FT IN A CROSS-EQUATORIAL SW SWELL ARE STILL POSSIBLE FROM 8N-14N BETWEEN 94W-115W. THE SEAS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 8 FT WITHIN THE NEXT 18 HOURS AS THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERIC SWELL SOURCE REGION BECOMES LESS OF AN INFLUENTIAL FACTOR IN THE GENERATION OF ADDITIONAL SWELLS TO AFFECT THE REGION. $$ AGUIRRE