000
AXPZ20 KNHC 271548
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC MON JUN 27 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH 11N86W 16N105W 10N120W. INTERTROPICAL 
CONVERGENCE ZONE 10N120W 07N140W. NUMEROUS MODERATE/STRONG 
CONVECTION WITHIN 180 NM S AXIS FROM 92W-101W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM S OF AXIS FROM 
115W-119W.


...DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 18N121W. 
RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION NE THROUGH THE 
BAJA PENINSULA INTO THE SW U.S. WITH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW 
DOMINATING THE ENTIRE AREA N OF 10N W OF 105W. MODERATE TO 
STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY STABLE AIR AT THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 
LEVELS COVERS THE AREA W OF 120W AND N OF N 20N E OF 120W. 
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE W THROUGH THE 
NEXT 48 HOURS. UPPER DIFFLUENT ELY FLOW S OF THE ANTICYCLONE IS 
ENHANCING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH FROM 
115W-119W.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IN THE 
GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO TO 21N105W. UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE S OF THE TROUGH IS ENHANCING NUMEROUS CONVECTION S OF 
THE MONSOON TROUGH AS DESCRIBED ABOVE.

BROAD SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE AREA N OF 15N AND W OF 115W. 
BROKEN TO OVERCAST STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS BLANKET THE AREA N OF 
15N W OF 115W. LARGE SW SWELL CONTINUE S OF 14N BETWEEN 94W-115W 
WITH SEAS 8-10 FT. THE SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 
8 FT BY TUE MORNING.

$$
DGS




000
AXPZ20 KNHC 271548
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC MON JUN 27 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH 11N86W 16N105W 10N120W. INTERTROPICAL 
CONVERGENCE ZONE 10N120W 07N140W. NUMEROUS MODERATE/STRONG 
CONVECTION WITHIN 180 NM S AXIS FROM 92W-101W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM S OF AXIS FROM 
115W-119W.


...DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 18N121W. 
RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION NE THROUGH THE 
BAJA PENINSULA INTO THE SW U.S. WITH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW 
DOMINATING THE ENTIRE AREA N OF 10N W OF 105W. MODERATE TO 
STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY STABLE AIR AT THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 
LEVELS COVERS THE AREA W OF 120W AND N OF N 20N E OF 120W. 
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE W THROUGH THE 
NEXT 48 HOURS. UPPER DIFFLUENT ELY FLOW S OF THE ANTICYCLONE IS 
ENHANCING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH FROM 
115W-119W.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IN THE 
GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO TO 21N105W. UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE S OF THE TROUGH IS ENHANCING NUMEROUS CONVECTION S OF 
THE MONSOON TROUGH AS DESCRIBED ABOVE.

BROAD SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE AREA N OF 15N AND W OF 115W. 
BROKEN TO OVERCAST STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS BLANKET THE AREA N OF 
15N W OF 115W. LARGE SW SWELL CONTINUE S OF 14N BETWEEN 94W-115W 
WITH SEAS 8-10 FT. THE SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 
8 FT BY TUE MORNING.

$$
DGS