000 AXPZ20 KNHC 270945 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC MON JUN 27 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0900 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 10N85W TO 14N100W TO 09N124W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N124W TO 09N130W TO 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 91W AND 100W EXCEPT NUMEROUS WITHIN 180 NM N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 93W AND 97W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 110W AND 118W. ...DISCUSSION... THE MAJORITY OF THE DISCUSSION AREA CONTINUES TO BE DOMINATED BY UPPER ANTICYCLONIC FLOW...ANCHORED BY TWO ANTICYCLONES...ONE OVER THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY NEAR THE TEXAS AND MEXICO BORDER NEAR 28N101W AND THE OTHER NOW DRIFTING WESTWARD LOCATED SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA NEAR 20N115W. AN ASSOCIATED UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS W TO SW THROUGH 17N125W TO 13N140W. SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS EXTENSIVE MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE ENCOMPASSING THE ENTIRE AREA W OF 120W AND ALSO THE AREA N OF 20N E OF 120W...AS DEPICTED BY THE FIELD OF BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE W PERIPHERY OF THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW. UPPER LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE ANTICYCLONES CONTINUES TO TRANSPORT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND DEBRIS CLOUDINESS FROM CONVECTION NEAR AND S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AS STATED ABOVE...AS WELL AS FROM WIDESPREAD STRONG TSTM ACTIVITY CURRENTLY ACTIVE OVER CENTRAL AND SE MEXICO AND GUATEMALA WHERE PLENTY OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS FUELING THE EVER PRESENT ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY. THIS ACTIVITY IS ALSO BEING ENHANCED BY A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE SW GULF OF MEXICO WHICH IS INTERACTING WITH A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. EXPECT VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS WITH THE CONVECTION LOCATED OVER LAND. AN ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT HAD BEEN JUST NW OF THE DISCUSSION AREA HAS RETREATED WESTWARD NOW LOCATED N OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. AND UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THIS PARENT UPPER LOW NE THROUGH 32N139W TOWARD THE COAST OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THIS TROUGH WILL BREAK OFF FROM THE LOW AND MOVE EASTWARD DRAGGING A WEAK ATTENDANT SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN WATERS. THIS FEATURE WILL HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON WINDS AND SEAS IN THE DISCUSSION AREA. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRES RIDGING COVERS THE AREA GENERALLY TO THE N OF 15N AND W OF 118W WITH THE PARENT 1021 MB HIGH CENTER NEAR 31N137W. A SMALL AREA OF 8 FT SEAS IS N OF 28N BETWEEN 118W AND 123W IN MIXED SW AND NW SWELL WHICH IS EXPECTED TO DECAY TO LESS THAN 8 FT WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. THE EXPERIMENTAL HI-RESOLUTION COASTAL ASCAT WINDS INDICATED NW TO N 20 KT WINDS N OF 25N WITHIN 120 NM W OF THE COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. THESE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE PRES GRADIENT SLACKENS. PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW FEEDING IN TO THE MONSOON TROUGH CONSISTS OF SW TO W 20 KT WINDS AND SEAS TO 9 FT WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11N98W TO 10N106W...ALONG WITH A BROADER AREA OF 8 FT CROSS-EQUATORIAL SW SWELL S OF 14N BETWEEN 92W AND 113W. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND SEAS WILL SUBSIDE DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AS THE MONSOONAL FLOW WEAKENS AND AS THE SWELL CONTINUES TO DECAY. $$ LEWITSKY 000 AXPZ20 KNHC 270945 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC MON JUN 27 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0900 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 10N85W TO 14N100W TO 09N124W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N124W TO 09N130W TO 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 91W AND 100W EXCEPT NUMEROUS WITHIN 180 NM N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 93W AND 97W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 110W AND 118W. ...DISCUSSION... THE MAJORITY OF THE DISCUSSION AREA CONTINUES TO BE DOMINATED BY UPPER ANTICYCLONIC FLOW...ANCHORED BY TWO ANTICYCLONES...ONE OVER THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY NEAR THE TEXAS AND MEXICO BORDER NEAR 28N101W AND THE OTHER NOW DRIFTING WESTWARD LOCATED SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA NEAR 20N115W. AN ASSOCIATED UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS W TO SW THROUGH 17N125W TO 13N140W. SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS EXTENSIVE MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE ENCOMPASSING THE ENTIRE AREA W OF 120W AND ALSO THE AREA N OF 20N E OF 120W...AS DEPICTED BY THE FIELD OF BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE W PERIPHERY OF THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW. UPPER LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE ANTICYCLONES CONTINUES TO TRANSPORT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND DEBRIS CLOUDINESS FROM CONVECTION NEAR AND S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AS STATED ABOVE...AS WELL AS FROM WIDESPREAD STRONG TSTM ACTIVITY CURRENTLY ACTIVE OVER CENTRAL AND SE MEXICO AND GUATEMALA WHERE PLENTY OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS FUELING THE EVER PRESENT ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY. THIS ACTIVITY IS ALSO BEING ENHANCED BY A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE SW GULF OF MEXICO WHICH IS INTERACTING WITH A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. EXPECT VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS WITH THE CONVECTION LOCATED OVER LAND. AN ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT HAD BEEN JUST NW OF THE DISCUSSION AREA HAS RETREATED WESTWARD NOW LOCATED N OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. AND UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THIS PARENT UPPER LOW NE THROUGH 32N139W TOWARD THE COAST OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THIS TROUGH WILL BREAK OFF FROM THE LOW AND MOVE EASTWARD DRAGGING A WEAK ATTENDANT SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN WATERS. THIS FEATURE WILL HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON WINDS AND SEAS IN THE DISCUSSION AREA. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRES RIDGING COVERS THE AREA GENERALLY TO THE N OF 15N AND W OF 118W WITH THE PARENT 1021 MB HIGH CENTER NEAR 31N137W. A SMALL AREA OF 8 FT SEAS IS N OF 28N BETWEEN 118W AND 123W IN MIXED SW AND NW SWELL WHICH IS EXPECTED TO DECAY TO LESS THAN 8 FT WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. THE EXPERIMENTAL HI-RESOLUTION COASTAL ASCAT WINDS INDICATED NW TO N 20 KT WINDS N OF 25N WITHIN 120 NM W OF THE COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. THESE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE PRES GRADIENT SLACKENS. PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW FEEDING IN TO THE MONSOON TROUGH CONSISTS OF SW TO W 20 KT WINDS AND SEAS TO 9 FT WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11N98W TO 10N106W...ALONG WITH A BROADER AREA OF 8 FT CROSS-EQUATORIAL SW SWELL S OF 14N BETWEEN 92W AND 113W. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND SEAS WILL SUBSIDE DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AS THE MONSOONAL FLOW WEAKENS AND AS THE SWELL CONTINUES TO DECAY. $$ LEWITSKY