000 AXPZ20 KNHC 270335 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC MON JUN 27 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0300 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 12N86W NW TO 14N91W TO 12N103W TO 10N114W TO 10N121W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 10N121W TO 7N134W TO 6N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM S OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 108W-110W...AND BETWEEN 111W-116W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 98W-101W. ...DISCUSSION... ...LITTLE OVERALL CHANGES TO BROAD SCALE SYNOPTIC PATTERN... THE MAJORITY OF THE DISCUSSION AREA CONTINUES TO BE DOMINATED BY UPPER ANTICYCLONIC FLOW...ANCHORED BY TWO ANTICYCLONES...ONE OVER THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY NEAR THE TEXAS AND MEXICO BORDER NEAR 29N101W AND THE OTHER JUST S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA NEAR 20N111W. AN ASSOCIATED UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS SW TO 15N131W TO 13N140W. SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS EXTENSIVE MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE ENCOMPASSING THE AREA S OF 17N W OF 165W...AND N OF 17N E OF 116W AS DEPICTED BY THE FIELD OF BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE W PERIPHERY OF THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW. AN ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL LOW JUST NW OF THE DISCUSSION AREA IS NEAR 30N141W WITH A TROUGH SSE TO 21N140W. THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO RETREAT WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS AS A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL LOW DIVES SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARDS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. MODEL GUIDANCE NOW CARRIES AN ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH THROUGH THE FAR NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA AS THE UPCOMING UPPER LOW TRANSLATES TOWARD CALIFORNIA...WITH AN ATTENDANT SURFACE TROUGH POSSIBLY BRUSHING THE FAR NORTHERN WATERS AND HAVING LITTLE IMPACT ON WINDS AND SEAS. UPPER LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE ANTICYCLONE CONTINUES TO TRANSPORT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND DEBRIS CLOUDINESS FROM CONVECTION NEAR AND S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AS STATED ABOVE...AS WELL AS FROM WIDESPREAD STRONG TSTM ACTIVITY CURRENTLY ACTIVE OVER SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THIS ACTIVITY IS BEING ENHANCED BY A TROPICAL WAVE INTERACTING WITH A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...AND FROM CONVECTION OVER NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA WHERE THERE IS PLENTY OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE FUELING THE EVER PRESENT ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY. EXPECT VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS WITH THE CONVECTION...PRIMARILY THAT NEAR AND ALONG THE MEXICAN COAST THROUGH THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRES RIDGING COVERS THE AREA GENERALLY TO THE N OF 14N AND W OF 120W WITH THE PARENT 1020 MB HIGH CENTER JUST N OF THE AREA NEAR 34N132W. A SLIGHT STRENGTHENING OF THE PRES GRADIENT TO THE SW OF THE RIDGE HAS RESULTED IN AN AREA OF NE WINDS TO 20 KT FROM 20N TO 26N W OF 134W. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH IN ABOUT 18 HOURS. PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW FEEDING IN TO THE MONSOON TROUGH CONSISTS OF SW 20 KT WINDS AND SEAS TO 9 FT FROM 8N-11N BETWEEN 91W AND 107W...ALONG WITH AN AREA OF SEAS TO 8 FT IN CROSS- EQUATORIAL SW SWELL ELSEWHERE S OF 12N BETWEEN 91W-121W. THESE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH IN 36 HOURS AS THE SWELL SOURCE REGION IN THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE HALTS IN THE GENERATION OF SWELLS AT THAT FORECAST TIME. $$ AGUIRRE 000 AXPZ20 KNHC 270335 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC MON JUN 27 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0300 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 12N86W NW TO 14N91W TO 12N103W TO 10N114W TO 10N121W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 10N121W TO 7N134W TO 6N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM S OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 108W-110W...AND BETWEEN 111W-116W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 98W-101W. ...DISCUSSION... ...LITTLE OVERALL CHANGES TO BROAD SCALE SYNOPTIC PATTERN... THE MAJORITY OF THE DISCUSSION AREA CONTINUES TO BE DOMINATED BY UPPER ANTICYCLONIC FLOW...ANCHORED BY TWO ANTICYCLONES...ONE OVER THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY NEAR THE TEXAS AND MEXICO BORDER NEAR 29N101W AND THE OTHER JUST S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA NEAR 20N111W. AN ASSOCIATED UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS SW TO 15N131W TO 13N140W. SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS EXTENSIVE MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE ENCOMPASSING THE AREA S OF 17N W OF 165W...AND N OF 17N E OF 116W AS DEPICTED BY THE FIELD OF BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE W PERIPHERY OF THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW. AN ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL LOW JUST NW OF THE DISCUSSION AREA IS NEAR 30N141W WITH A TROUGH SSE TO 21N140W. THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO RETREAT WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS AS A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL LOW DIVES SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARDS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. MODEL GUIDANCE NOW CARRIES AN ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH THROUGH THE FAR NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA AS THE UPCOMING UPPER LOW TRANSLATES TOWARD CALIFORNIA...WITH AN ATTENDANT SURFACE TROUGH POSSIBLY BRUSHING THE FAR NORTHERN WATERS AND HAVING LITTLE IMPACT ON WINDS AND SEAS. UPPER LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE ANTICYCLONE CONTINUES TO TRANSPORT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND DEBRIS CLOUDINESS FROM CONVECTION NEAR AND S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AS STATED ABOVE...AS WELL AS FROM WIDESPREAD STRONG TSTM ACTIVITY CURRENTLY ACTIVE OVER SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THIS ACTIVITY IS BEING ENHANCED BY A TROPICAL WAVE INTERACTING WITH A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...AND FROM CONVECTION OVER NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA WHERE THERE IS PLENTY OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE FUELING THE EVER PRESENT ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY. EXPECT VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS WITH THE CONVECTION...PRIMARILY THAT NEAR AND ALONG THE MEXICAN COAST THROUGH THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRES RIDGING COVERS THE AREA GENERALLY TO THE N OF 14N AND W OF 120W WITH THE PARENT 1020 MB HIGH CENTER JUST N OF THE AREA NEAR 34N132W. A SLIGHT STRENGTHENING OF THE PRES GRADIENT TO THE SW OF THE RIDGE HAS RESULTED IN AN AREA OF NE WINDS TO 20 KT FROM 20N TO 26N W OF 134W. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH IN ABOUT 18 HOURS. PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW FEEDING IN TO THE MONSOON TROUGH CONSISTS OF SW 20 KT WINDS AND SEAS TO 9 FT FROM 8N-11N BETWEEN 91W AND 107W...ALONG WITH AN AREA OF SEAS TO 8 FT IN CROSS- EQUATORIAL SW SWELL ELSEWHERE S OF 12N BETWEEN 91W-121W. THESE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH IN 36 HOURS AS THE SWELL SOURCE REGION IN THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE HALTS IN THE GENERATION OF SWELLS AT THAT FORECAST TIME. $$ AGUIRRE