000 AXPZ20 KNHC 262205 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC SUN JUN 26 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2145 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 13N89W TO 13N100W TO 10N114W TO 9N125W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 9N125W TO 5N135W TO 5N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM S OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 105W-110W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM S OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 90W-98W. ...DISCUSSION... ...LITTLE OVERALL CHANGES TO BROAD SCALE PATTERN OVER THE AREA... THE MAJORITY OF THE DISCUSSION AREA CONTINUES TO BE DOMINATED BY UPPER ANTICYCLONIC FLOW...ANCHORED BY TWO ANTICYCLONES...ONE OVER THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY NEAR THE TEXAS AND MEXICO BORDER NEAR 29N101W AND THE OTHER JUST S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA NEAR 20N111W. AN ASSOCIATED UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS SW TO 15N131W TO 13N140W. SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS EXTENSIVE MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE ENCOMPASSING THE AREA S OF 17N W OF 115W...AND N OF 17N E OF 117W AS DEPICTED BY THE FIELD OF BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE W PERIPHERY OF THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW. AN ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL LOW JUST NW OF THE DISCUSSION AREA IS NEAR 30N142W WITH A TROUGH SSE TO 19N140W. THIS FEATURE WILL RETREAT WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS AS A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL LOW DIVES SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARDS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. MODEL GUIDANCE NOW CARRIES AN ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH THROUGH THE FAR NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA AS THE UPCOMING UPPER LOW TRANSLATES TOWARD CALIFORNIA...WITH AN ATTENDANT SURFACE TROUGH POSSIBLY BRUSHING THE FAR NORTHERN WATERS. OTHER THAN A WIND SHIFT...DO NOT EXPECT SIGNIFICANT WINDS OR SEAS BEHIND THIS SURFACE TROUGH. UPPER LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE ANTICYCLONE CONTINUES TO TRANSPORT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM CONVECTION NEAR AND S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AS STATED ABOVE...ALSO FROM WIDESPREAD STRONG CONVECTION THAT IS PRESENTLY OCCURRING OVER SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WHICH IS BEING ENHANCED BY A TROPICAL WAVE INTERACTING WITH A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...AND FROM CONVECTION OVER NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA WHERE THERE IS PLENTY OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE FUELING THE EVER PRESENT ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY. EXPECT VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS WITH THE CONVECTION...PRIMARILY THAT NEAR THE COAST AND IN THE ABOVE MENTION LOCALES. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRES RIDGING COVERS THE AREA GENERALLY TO THE N OF 14N AND W OF 120W WITH THE PARENT 1021 MB HIGH CENTER JUST N OF THE AREA NEAR 32N132W. A SLIGHT STRENGTHENING OF THE PRES GRADIENT TO THE SW OF THE RIDGE HAS RESULTED IN AN AREA OF NE WINDS TO 20 KT FROM 20N TO 26N W OF 134W. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW FEEDING IN TO THE MONSOON TROUGH CONSISTS OF SW 20 KT WINDS AND SEAS TO 9 FT FROM 8N-11N BETWEEN 91W AND 107W...ALONG WITH AN AREA OF SEAS TO 9 FT IN CROSS- EQUATORIAL SW SWELL ELSEWHERE S OF 12N BETWEEN 91W-121W. THESE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH IN 42 HOURS. $$ AGUIRRE 000 AXPZ20 KNHC 262205 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC SUN JUN 26 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2145 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 13N89W TO 13N100W TO 10N114W TO 9N125W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 9N125W TO 5N135W TO 5N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM S OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 105W-110W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM S OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 90W-98W. ...DISCUSSION... ...LITTLE OVERALL CHANGES TO BROAD SCALE PATTERN OVER THE AREA... THE MAJORITY OF THE DISCUSSION AREA CONTINUES TO BE DOMINATED BY UPPER ANTICYCLONIC FLOW...ANCHORED BY TWO ANTICYCLONES...ONE OVER THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY NEAR THE TEXAS AND MEXICO BORDER NEAR 29N101W AND THE OTHER JUST S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA NEAR 20N111W. AN ASSOCIATED UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS SW TO 15N131W TO 13N140W. SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS EXTENSIVE MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE ENCOMPASSING THE AREA S OF 17N W OF 115W...AND N OF 17N E OF 117W AS DEPICTED BY THE FIELD OF BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE W PERIPHERY OF THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW. AN ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL LOW JUST NW OF THE DISCUSSION AREA IS NEAR 30N142W WITH A TROUGH SSE TO 19N140W. THIS FEATURE WILL RETREAT WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS AS A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL LOW DIVES SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARDS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. MODEL GUIDANCE NOW CARRIES AN ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH THROUGH THE FAR NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA AS THE UPCOMING UPPER LOW TRANSLATES TOWARD CALIFORNIA...WITH AN ATTENDANT SURFACE TROUGH POSSIBLY BRUSHING THE FAR NORTHERN WATERS. OTHER THAN A WIND SHIFT...DO NOT EXPECT SIGNIFICANT WINDS OR SEAS BEHIND THIS SURFACE TROUGH. UPPER LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE ANTICYCLONE CONTINUES TO TRANSPORT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM CONVECTION NEAR AND S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AS STATED ABOVE...ALSO FROM WIDESPREAD STRONG CONVECTION THAT IS PRESENTLY OCCURRING OVER SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WHICH IS BEING ENHANCED BY A TROPICAL WAVE INTERACTING WITH A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...AND FROM CONVECTION OVER NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA WHERE THERE IS PLENTY OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE FUELING THE EVER PRESENT ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY. EXPECT VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS WITH THE CONVECTION...PRIMARILY THAT NEAR THE COAST AND IN THE ABOVE MENTION LOCALES. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRES RIDGING COVERS THE AREA GENERALLY TO THE N OF 14N AND W OF 120W WITH THE PARENT 1021 MB HIGH CENTER JUST N OF THE AREA NEAR 32N132W. A SLIGHT STRENGTHENING OF THE PRES GRADIENT TO THE SW OF THE RIDGE HAS RESULTED IN AN AREA OF NE WINDS TO 20 KT FROM 20N TO 26N W OF 134W. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW FEEDING IN TO THE MONSOON TROUGH CONSISTS OF SW 20 KT WINDS AND SEAS TO 9 FT FROM 8N-11N BETWEEN 91W AND 107W...ALONG WITH AN AREA OF SEAS TO 9 FT IN CROSS- EQUATORIAL SW SWELL ELSEWHERE S OF 12N BETWEEN 91W-121W. THESE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH IN 42 HOURS. $$ AGUIRRE