000
AXPZ20 KNHC 261511
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SUN JUN 26 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1600 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH 13N91W 9N124W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE 
9N124W 5N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 
180 NM S OF AXIS FROM 91W-97W AND WITHIN 60 NM N AND 120 NM S OF 
AXIS FROM 103W-108W.

...DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE FAR W PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA 
WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 30N140W TO 20N138W. OTHERWISE 
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW DOMINATES THE ENTIRE AREA N OF 10N. THE 
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED SW OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA  
COAST NEAR 20N112W. MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY 
STABLE AIR AT THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS COVERS THE AREA W OF 
115W AND N OF N 20N E OF 115W. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS EXPECTED TO 
DOMINATE THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT 48 HOURS. UPPER 
DIFFLUENT ELY FLOW S OF THE ANTICYCLONE IS ENHANCING STRONG 
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH DESCRIBED ABOVE.

BROAD SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE AREA N OF 15N AND W OF 115W. 
BROKEN TO OVERCAST STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS BLANKET THE AREA N OF 
15N W OF 115W. LOW LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TO 20 KT CONTINUE 
FROM 7N-9N BETWEEN 90W-107W...WITH 8-10 FT SW SWELL S OF 12N 
BETWEEN 90W AND 115W. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DECREASE TO BELOW 20 
KT BY MON MORNING...AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE TO LESS 
THAN 8 FT BY TUE MORNING.

$$
DGS





000
AXPZ20 KNHC 261511
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SUN JUN 26 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1600 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH 13N91W 9N124W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE 
9N124W 5N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 
180 NM S OF AXIS FROM 91W-97W AND WITHIN 60 NM N AND 120 NM S OF 
AXIS FROM 103W-108W.

...DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE FAR W PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA 
WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 30N140W TO 20N138W. OTHERWISE 
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW DOMINATES THE ENTIRE AREA N OF 10N. THE 
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED SW OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA  
COAST NEAR 20N112W. MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY 
STABLE AIR AT THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS COVERS THE AREA W OF 
115W AND N OF N 20N E OF 115W. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS EXPECTED TO 
DOMINATE THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT 48 HOURS. UPPER 
DIFFLUENT ELY FLOW S OF THE ANTICYCLONE IS ENHANCING STRONG 
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH DESCRIBED ABOVE.

BROAD SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE AREA N OF 15N AND W OF 115W. 
BROKEN TO OVERCAST STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS BLANKET THE AREA N OF 
15N W OF 115W. LOW LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TO 20 KT CONTINUE 
FROM 7N-9N BETWEEN 90W-107W...WITH 8-10 FT SW SWELL S OF 12N 
BETWEEN 90W AND 115W. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DECREASE TO BELOW 20 
KT BY MON MORNING...AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE TO LESS 
THAN 8 FT BY TUE MORNING.

$$
DGS