000 AXPZ20 KNHC 260336 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC SUN JUN 26 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0300 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 11N86W TO 15N95W TO 12N111W TO 9N125W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 9N125W TO 6N134W TO 6N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 87W-91W...AND FROM 8N-10N BETWEEN 96W-102W. ...DISCUSSION... A LARGE ENVELOP OF UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE FAR EASTERN SECTION OF THE AREA ANCHORED BY TWO ANTICYCLONES...ONE OVER FAR NORTHERN MEXICO NEAR 29N107W AND THE OTHER JUST W OF PUERTO VALLARTA MEXICO NEAR 21N107W. AN ASSOCIATED UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM SW TO 15N123W TO 9N140W. SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS EXTENSIVE MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE OVER THOSE AREAS CONTINUING TO MAINTAIN RATHER DRY AND STABLE ENVIRONMENT OVER THE NW HALF OF THE AREA AS DEPICTED BY THE FIELD OF BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE SW PERIPHERY OF THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW. AN ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR THE NW PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA EXTENDS A TROUGH SE AND S TO JUST W OF 140W. THIS FEATURE WILL RETREAT WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS AS A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL LOW DIVES SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARDS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WITH ITS RELATED TROUGH JUST EXPECTED TO BRUSH THE EXTREME FAR NORTHERN DISCUSSION BOUNDARY AS THE RIDGE HOLDS IN PLACE. UPPER LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW S OF THE ANTICYCLONE NEAR 21N107W CONTINUES TO TRANSPORT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM CONVECTION OVER INTERIOR CENTRAL MEXICO...WITH ADDITIONAL STRONGER CONVECTION RELATED TO THE MONSOON TROUGH AS DESCRIBED ABOVE ALSO MOVING WESTWARD. OTHER CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY DEVELOPING OVER THE INTERIOR PORTIONS OF MUCH OF CENTRAL AMERICA EARLY THIS EVENING AS IT IS BEING ENHANCED BY UPPER DIVERGENCE IN THE AREA...ALONG WITH ENHANCED ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY FROM THE SOUTHERN SEGMENT OF A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA TO PRODUCE ABUNDANT DEEP LEVEL MOISTURE ACTING TO SUSTAIN THE CONVECTION. EXPECT VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS WITH THIS CONVECTION AS IT SLOWLY LIFTS N AND NW TOWARDS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND BELIZE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. A WEAK 1009 MB SURFACE LOW ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH IS NEAR 12N90W MOVING SLOWLY NW...BUT WITH MOST OF THE LOW LEVEL VORTICITY EXPECTED TO STAY TO THE N AND NE OF THE AREA OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...AND UPPER NE WINDS EXPECTED TO INCREASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS THE LOW WILL NOT LAST TOO LONG. ELSEWHERE AT THE SURFACE...A BROAD RIDGE COVERS THE AREA GENERALLY TO THE N OF 13N AND W OF 118W. A WEAK SMALL CYCLONIC SWIRL IS EVIDENT IN LAST SATELLITE VISIBLE IMAGERY TO BE LOCATED NEAR 17N113W. LAST HIGH RESOLUTION ASCAT DATA FROM YESTERDAY INDICATED N-NE WINDS TO 20 KT...AND SEAS OF 8 FT IN MIXED N AND S SWELL IN A SMALL N CENTRAL PORTION OF THE AREA N OF 28N BETWEEN 120W-130W. THESE WINDS AND SEAS WILL SUBSIDE IN ABOUT 24-36 HOURS. PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW FEEDING IN TO THE MONSOON TROUGH CONSISTS OF 20 KT S TO SW WINDS AND SEAS TO 9 FT S OF 8N BETWEEN 90W-106W AS INDICATED BY THE ASCAT PASS...AND ALSO BY THE N TO S BUOY ARRAY SITUATED ALONG 95W. THIS AREA OF 20 KT WINDS IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SHRINK AND MIGRATE SLIGHTLY NE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS RELOCATES SOME TO THE N. THE ASCAT PASS AND A WSAT PASS FROM YESTERDAY INDICATED SE-S 20 KT WINDS TO THE W OF THE S-SW WINDS TO THE S OF ABOUT 8N BETWEEN 106W-115W. SEAS OF 8-10 FT IN S-SW SWELL IN THESE WIND AREAS WILL BE ON THE DECAYING TREND TO 8 FT IN 36-48 HOURS WITH THE WINDS DIMINISHING TO MORE LIKE 15-20 KT AS THE OVERALL AREAL COVERAGE SHRINKS...WHILE THE GENERATING SWELL SOURCE REGION IN THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE WANES IN PRODUCTION OF THE SWELLS. $$ AGUIRRE 000 AXPZ20 KNHC 260336 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC SUN JUN 26 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0300 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 11N86W TO 15N95W TO 12N111W TO 9N125W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 9N125W TO 6N134W TO 6N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 87W-91W...AND FROM 8N-10N BETWEEN 96W-102W. ...DISCUSSION... A LARGE ENVELOP OF UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE FAR EASTERN SECTION OF THE AREA ANCHORED BY TWO ANTICYCLONES...ONE OVER FAR NORTHERN MEXICO NEAR 29N107W AND THE OTHER JUST W OF PUERTO VALLARTA MEXICO NEAR 21N107W. AN ASSOCIATED UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM SW TO 15N123W TO 9N140W. SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS EXTENSIVE MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE OVER THOSE AREAS CONTINUING TO MAINTAIN RATHER DRY AND STABLE ENVIRONMENT OVER THE NW HALF OF THE AREA AS DEPICTED BY THE FIELD OF BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE SW PERIPHERY OF THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW. AN ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR THE NW PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA EXTENDS A TROUGH SE AND S TO JUST W OF 140W. THIS FEATURE WILL RETREAT WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS AS A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL LOW DIVES SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARDS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WITH ITS RELATED TROUGH JUST EXPECTED TO BRUSH THE EXTREME FAR NORTHERN DISCUSSION BOUNDARY AS THE RIDGE HOLDS IN PLACE. UPPER LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW S OF THE ANTICYCLONE NEAR 21N107W CONTINUES TO TRANSPORT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM CONVECTION OVER INTERIOR CENTRAL MEXICO...WITH ADDITIONAL STRONGER CONVECTION RELATED TO THE MONSOON TROUGH AS DESCRIBED ABOVE ALSO MOVING WESTWARD. OTHER CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY DEVELOPING OVER THE INTERIOR PORTIONS OF MUCH OF CENTRAL AMERICA EARLY THIS EVENING AS IT IS BEING ENHANCED BY UPPER DIVERGENCE IN THE AREA...ALONG WITH ENHANCED ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY FROM THE SOUTHERN SEGMENT OF A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA TO PRODUCE ABUNDANT DEEP LEVEL MOISTURE ACTING TO SUSTAIN THE CONVECTION. EXPECT VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS WITH THIS CONVECTION AS IT SLOWLY LIFTS N AND NW TOWARDS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND BELIZE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. A WEAK 1009 MB SURFACE LOW ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH IS NEAR 12N90W MOVING SLOWLY NW...BUT WITH MOST OF THE LOW LEVEL VORTICITY EXPECTED TO STAY TO THE N AND NE OF THE AREA OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...AND UPPER NE WINDS EXPECTED TO INCREASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS THE LOW WILL NOT LAST TOO LONG. ELSEWHERE AT THE SURFACE...A BROAD RIDGE COVERS THE AREA GENERALLY TO THE N OF 13N AND W OF 118W. A WEAK SMALL CYCLONIC SWIRL IS EVIDENT IN LAST SATELLITE VISIBLE IMAGERY TO BE LOCATED NEAR 17N113W. LAST HIGH RESOLUTION ASCAT DATA FROM YESTERDAY INDICATED N-NE WINDS TO 20 KT...AND SEAS OF 8 FT IN MIXED N AND S SWELL IN A SMALL N CENTRAL PORTION OF THE AREA N OF 28N BETWEEN 120W-130W. THESE WINDS AND SEAS WILL SUBSIDE IN ABOUT 24-36 HOURS. PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW FEEDING IN TO THE MONSOON TROUGH CONSISTS OF 20 KT S TO SW WINDS AND SEAS TO 9 FT S OF 8N BETWEEN 90W-106W AS INDICATED BY THE ASCAT PASS...AND ALSO BY THE N TO S BUOY ARRAY SITUATED ALONG 95W. THIS AREA OF 20 KT WINDS IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SHRINK AND MIGRATE SLIGHTLY NE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS RELOCATES SOME TO THE N. THE ASCAT PASS AND A WSAT PASS FROM YESTERDAY INDICATED SE-S 20 KT WINDS TO THE W OF THE S-SW WINDS TO THE S OF ABOUT 8N BETWEEN 106W-115W. SEAS OF 8-10 FT IN S-SW SWELL IN THESE WIND AREAS WILL BE ON THE DECAYING TREND TO 8 FT IN 36-48 HOURS WITH THE WINDS DIMINISHING TO MORE LIKE 15-20 KT AS THE OVERALL AREAL COVERAGE SHRINKS...WHILE THE GENERATING SWELL SOURCE REGION IN THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE WANES IN PRODUCTION OF THE SWELLS. $$ AGUIRRE