000 AXPZ20 KNHC 252205 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC SAT JUN 25 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2145 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 11N86W TO 11N95W TO 13N106W TO 11N115W TO 10N125W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 10N125W TO 5N134W TO 5N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM S AND 120 NM N OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 87W-97W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM S OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 98W AND 103W. ...DISCUSSION... A LARGE ENVELOP OF UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE FAR EASTERN SECTION OF THE AREA ANCHORED BY TWO ANTICYCLONES...ONE OVER FAR NORTHERN MEXICO NEAR 29N107W AND THE OTHER JUST W OF PUERTO VALLARTA MEXICO NEAR 21N107W. AN ASSOCIATED UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM SW TO 15N123W TO 9N140W. SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS EXTENSIVE MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE OVER THOSE AREAS CONTINUING TO MAINTAIN RATHER DRY AND STABLE ENVIRONMENT OVER THE NW HALF OF THE AREA AS DEPICTED BY THE FIELD OF BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE SW PERIPHERY OF THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW. AN ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR THE NW PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA EXTENDS A TROUGH SE AND S TO JUST W OF 140W. THIS FEATURE WILL RETREAT WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS AS A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL LOW DIVES SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARDS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WITH ITS RELATED TROUGH JUST EXPECTED TO BRUSH THE EXTREME FAR NORTHERN DISCUSSION BOUNDARY AS THE RIDGE HOLDS IN PLACE. UPPER LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW S OF THE ANTICYCLONE NEAR 21N107W CONTINUES TO TRANSPORT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM CONVECTION OVER INTERIOR CENTRAL MEXICO...WITH ADDITIONAL STRONGER CONVECTION RELATED TO THE MONSOON TROUGH AS DESCRIBED ABOVE ALSO MOVING WESTWARD. OTHER CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY DEVELOPING OVER THE INTERIOR PORTIONS OF MUCH OF CENTRAL AMERICA BEING ENHANCED BY A TROPICAL WAVE WHICH IS MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL HONDURAS AND THE GULF OF HONDURAS. THE WAVE AXIS EXTENDS S TO FAR NW NICARAGUA. ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY IN COMBINATION WITH ABUNDANT DEEP MOISTURE ALREADY IN PLACE THROUGHOUT THIS PART OF THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE THE IMPETUS FOR CONVECTION TO CONTINUE ON THE UPWARD TREND OVER THOSE GEOGRAPHIC AREAS STATED ABOVE THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. EXPECT VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS WITH THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. A SMALL VORT MAX ALONG THE EASTERN END OF THE MONSOON TROUGH HAS RECENTLY MATERIALIZED INTO A WEAK 1009 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR 12N90W MOVING SLOWLY NW...BUT WITH MOST OF THE LOW LEVEL VORTICITY EXPECTED TO STAY TO THE N AND NE OF THE AREA OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...EXPECTED THE LOW TO WEAKEN THROUGH THE 24-30 HOURS. AT THE SURFACE...A BROAD RIDGE COVERS THE AREA GENERALLY TO THE N OF 13N AND W OF 118W. A WEAK TROUGH IS ALONG 113W FROM 16N-19N AS SEEN IN SATELLITE VISIBLE IMAGERY. ASCAT DATA INDICATED N-NE WINDS TO 20 KT WINDS AND SEAS OF 8 FT IN MIXED N AND S SWELL IN A SMALL N CENTRAL PORTION OF THE AREA N OF 28N BETWEEN 120W-130W. THESE WINDS AND SEAS WILL SUBSIDE IN ABOUT 24-36 HOURS. SOUTHERLY FLOW FEEDING IN TO THE MONSOON TROUGH CONSISTS OF 20 KT S TO SW WINDS AND SEAS TO 9 FT FROM 05N TO 10N BETWEEN 90W AND 100W AS INDICATED BY RECENT ASCAT PASSES. THIS AREA OF 20 KT WINDS IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SHRINK AND MIGRATE SLIGHTLY NE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS TO THE N TO NE. JUST TO THE SW...A RECENT WINDSAT PASS CAPTURED 20 KT SE TO S WINDS S OF 05N BETWEEN 95W AND 105W ALONG WITH SEAS TO 9 FT IN SW SWELL. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KT TODAY AS THE GRADIENT IN THAT REGION WEAKENS. MEANWHILE...CROSS EQUATORIAL SOUTHWESTERLY SWELLS OF 8 TO 10 FT DOMINATE THE WATERS S OF 11N BETWEEN 82W AND 125W. THIS SWELL WILL GRADUALLY DECAY TO 8 TO 9 FT BY 48 HOURS WHILE SHRINKING IN AREAL COVERAGE. $$ AGUIRRE 000 AXPZ20 KNHC 252205 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC SAT JUN 25 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2145 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 11N86W TO 11N95W TO 13N106W TO 11N115W TO 10N125W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 10N125W TO 5N134W TO 5N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM S AND 120 NM N OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 87W-97W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM S OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 98W AND 103W. ...DISCUSSION... A LARGE ENVELOP OF UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE FAR EASTERN SECTION OF THE AREA ANCHORED BY TWO ANTICYCLONES...ONE OVER FAR NORTHERN MEXICO NEAR 29N107W AND THE OTHER JUST W OF PUERTO VALLARTA MEXICO NEAR 21N107W. AN ASSOCIATED UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM SW TO 15N123W TO 9N140W. SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS EXTENSIVE MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE OVER THOSE AREAS CONTINUING TO MAINTAIN RATHER DRY AND STABLE ENVIRONMENT OVER THE NW HALF OF THE AREA AS DEPICTED BY THE FIELD OF BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE SW PERIPHERY OF THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW. AN ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR THE NW PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA EXTENDS A TROUGH SE AND S TO JUST W OF 140W. THIS FEATURE WILL RETREAT WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS AS A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL LOW DIVES SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARDS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WITH ITS RELATED TROUGH JUST EXPECTED TO BRUSH THE EXTREME FAR NORTHERN DISCUSSION BOUNDARY AS THE RIDGE HOLDS IN PLACE. UPPER LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW S OF THE ANTICYCLONE NEAR 21N107W CONTINUES TO TRANSPORT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM CONVECTION OVER INTERIOR CENTRAL MEXICO...WITH ADDITIONAL STRONGER CONVECTION RELATED TO THE MONSOON TROUGH AS DESCRIBED ABOVE ALSO MOVING WESTWARD. OTHER CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY DEVELOPING OVER THE INTERIOR PORTIONS OF MUCH OF CENTRAL AMERICA BEING ENHANCED BY A TROPICAL WAVE WHICH IS MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL HONDURAS AND THE GULF OF HONDURAS. THE WAVE AXIS EXTENDS S TO FAR NW NICARAGUA. ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY IN COMBINATION WITH ABUNDANT DEEP MOISTURE ALREADY IN PLACE THROUGHOUT THIS PART OF THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE THE IMPETUS FOR CONVECTION TO CONTINUE ON THE UPWARD TREND OVER THOSE GEOGRAPHIC AREAS STATED ABOVE THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. EXPECT VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS WITH THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. A SMALL VORT MAX ALONG THE EASTERN END OF THE MONSOON TROUGH HAS RECENTLY MATERIALIZED INTO A WEAK 1009 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR 12N90W MOVING SLOWLY NW...BUT WITH MOST OF THE LOW LEVEL VORTICITY EXPECTED TO STAY TO THE N AND NE OF THE AREA OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...EXPECTED THE LOW TO WEAKEN THROUGH THE 24-30 HOURS. AT THE SURFACE...A BROAD RIDGE COVERS THE AREA GENERALLY TO THE N OF 13N AND W OF 118W. A WEAK TROUGH IS ALONG 113W FROM 16N-19N AS SEEN IN SATELLITE VISIBLE IMAGERY. ASCAT DATA INDICATED N-NE WINDS TO 20 KT WINDS AND SEAS OF 8 FT IN MIXED N AND S SWELL IN A SMALL N CENTRAL PORTION OF THE AREA N OF 28N BETWEEN 120W-130W. THESE WINDS AND SEAS WILL SUBSIDE IN ABOUT 24-36 HOURS. SOUTHERLY FLOW FEEDING IN TO THE MONSOON TROUGH CONSISTS OF 20 KT S TO SW WINDS AND SEAS TO 9 FT FROM 05N TO 10N BETWEEN 90W AND 100W AS INDICATED BY RECENT ASCAT PASSES. THIS AREA OF 20 KT WINDS IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SHRINK AND MIGRATE SLIGHTLY NE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS TO THE N TO NE. JUST TO THE SW...A RECENT WINDSAT PASS CAPTURED 20 KT SE TO S WINDS S OF 05N BETWEEN 95W AND 105W ALONG WITH SEAS TO 9 FT IN SW SWELL. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KT TODAY AS THE GRADIENT IN THAT REGION WEAKENS. MEANWHILE...CROSS EQUATORIAL SOUTHWESTERLY SWELLS OF 8 TO 10 FT DOMINATE THE WATERS S OF 11N BETWEEN 82W AND 125W. THIS SWELL WILL GRADUALLY DECAY TO 8 TO 9 FT BY 48 HOURS WHILE SHRINKING IN AREAL COVERAGE. $$ AGUIRRE